Return-Path: Received: by massis.lcs.mit.edu (8.7.4/NSCS-1.0S) id BAA08270; Fri, 16 May 1997 01:39:02 -0400 (EDT) Date: Fri, 16 May 1997 01:39:02 -0400 (EDT) From: editor@telecom-digest.org Message-Id: <199705160539.BAA08270@massis.lcs.mit.edu> To: ptownson Subject: TELECOM Digest V17 #122 TELECOM Digest Fri, 16 May 97 01:39:00 EDT Volume 17 : Issue 122 Inside This Issue: Editor: Patrick A. Townson 1997 ICFC Agenda (BDACXGR@NJCORP3.BELL-ATL.COM) When Regulators Attack Area Codes (Dave Levenson) Telephony History and Preservation (Ben-Zion Y. Cassouto) Re: Are Cordless' as Bad as Cellulars? (Michael Wright) Telecom Engineer Needs in NJ (John Smith) Re: City Fire Alarm Pull Boxes (Peter Laws) TELECOM Digest is an electronic journal devoted mostly but not exclusively to telecommunications topics. It is circulated anywhere there is email, in addition to various telecom forums on a variety of public service systems and networks including Compuserve and America On Line. It is also gatewayed to Usenet where it appears as the moderated newsgroup 'comp.dcom.telecom'. Subscriptions are available to qualified organizations and individual readers. Write and tell us how you qualify: * subscriptions@telecom-digest.org * The Digest is edited, published and compilation-copyrighted by Patrick Townson of Skokie, Illinois USA. You can reach us by postal mail, fax or phone at: Post Office Box 4621 Skokie, IL USA 60076 Phone: 847-727-5427 Fax: 773-539-4630 ** Article submission address: editor@telecom-digest.org ** Our archives are available for your review/research. The URL is: http://telecom-digest.org (WWW/http only!) 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Your help is important and appreciated. A suggested donation of twenty dollars per year per reader is considered appropriate. See our address above. All opinions expressed herein are deemed to be those of the author. Any organizations listed are for identification purposes only and messages should not be considered any official expression by the organization. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- From: BDACXGR@NJCORP3.BELL-ATL.COM Subject: 1997 ICFC Agenda Date: Thu, 15 May 1997 19:40:47 -0400 1997 International Communications Forecasting Conference "Dynamic Market Structures & Evolving Customer Needs: The Role of Demand Analysis & Forecasting" Sir Francis Drake Hotel, San Francisco June 24-27, 1997 Conference Schedule Web Site: http://www.econ.ilstu.edu/icfc/home.htm This is the agenda for the 1997 ICFC. Abstracts of the papers are available on our Web site. Please note that the early registration date is May 23rd. At that time the block of rooms held at the Conference rate at the hotel will be released. Registration information is provided below. Please contact Farhad Sabetan 510-823-3547 if you have addtional questions. The International Communications Forecasting Conference is a professional forum for telecommunications forecasters, demand analysts and planners. The ICFC provides opportunity for discussion, presentation, and review of emerging issues as they pertain to telecommunications forecasting and planning, demand analysis, business research and cost analysis. June 24 TUESDAY 6:30PM - 8:30PM RECEPTION & DINNER June 25 WEDNESDAY 8:30AM - 10:00AM KEY NOTE SPEECH "The Road to Local Competition: Opportunties and Risks" Dr. William E. Taylor, Senior Vice President National Economic Research Associates, Inc. 10:30AM - 12:00Noon CONCURRENT SESSIONS Session 1A PRICE CAPS AND LOCAL COMPETITION 97-03 The Road to Price Caps in Canada Chris Dineen - Bell Canada 97-17 Local Telecommunications Competition: What Is It and Will We Get It? Willie Grieve, Barrister and Solicitor Stanford L. Levin, Southern Illinois University at Edwardsville 97-44 Regulatory Dynamics In The Changing Telecommunications Sector From The Regulatory Point Of View Tuula Broman-Saaristo Session 1B Chair: USING FORECASTING FOR DECISION MAKING, WORKLOAD PLANNING, AND PROVISIONING 97-18 Alternative Futures: Forecasting for Business Decision Making Alan M. Gross, Bellcore 97-34 Characterizing a Fast-Changing Workload in a Telephone Order System: A Case Study Neale Hirsh, Bell Atlantic 97-35 Hi Tech To Nuts & Bolts Of Forecasting Problems: Right Answers Require A Range Of Mix & Match Donald B. Brout, Think Systems Corporation Session 1C Chair:THE INTERNET: DEMAND, TELEPHONY IMPACT & COMMERCIAL DEVELOPMENT 97-08 Quantifying the Effect of Internet Telephony From Both Telecommunications and Internet Service Provider Perspectives Nicholas J. Scalera, Louis Rubin, Bellcore 97-11 Innovative Business Models Towards The Adoption Of Wide-Scale Electronic Commerce In Business To Consumer Markets Prof. dr. Rene W. Wagenaar, KPN Research 97-15 Determinants of Demand for New Services: The Internet as an Example Dr. Morten Falch, Technical University of Denmark 12:00Noon - 1:30PM LUNCH - provided 1:30PM - 2:30PM CONCURRENT SESSIONS Session 2A Chair: IMPROVED TECHNIQUES FOR UNDERSTANDING THE CUSTOMER 97-14 Market Segmentation Analysis Krzysztof Dzieciolowski Bell Canada 97-16 Societal And Economic Trends As A Source For The Identification Of New Telecommunication Markets - A New Demand Oriented Forecasting Paradigm Rainer Koenig, Deutsche Telekom AG Session 2B Chair: DEMAND FOR OPTIONAL CALLING PLANS IN TELECOMMUNICATIONS 97-05 Discrete-Choice Analysis Of Optional Tariff Demand Characteristics In Germany Dieter Elixmann, WIK 97-42 A Growth Model of Optional Calling Plan Penetration Steve Zhang, AT&T Session 2C Chair: NEW RESEARCH IN TOLL DEMAND 97-21 A Pattern of Inter-regional Toll Demand: Korea Case Yongkyu Kim, Myeongho Lee, and Mr. Yong-Sub Yum Korea Information Society Development Institute 97-38 Competitive Own and Cross-Price Elasticities in the IntraLATA Toll Market Donald J. Kridel, University of Missouri, St. Louis Paul N. Rappoport, Temple University Lester D. Taylor, University of Arizona 3:00pm - 4:00PM CONCURRENT SESSIONS Session 3A INTERNET ACCESS IN THE RESIDENTIAL MARKET: ESTIMATING DEMAND AND IMPACT 97-39 The Demand for Access to On-line Services and the Internet Donald J. Kridel, University of Missouri, St. Louis Paul N. Rappoport,Temple University Lester D. Taylor, University of Arizona 97-46 The Impact of The Internet on The Demand for Residential Local Access Lines Mohammed B. Abrar, Bell Canada Session 3B FORWARD-LOOKING BANDWIDTH SUPPLY AND DEMAND ISSUES 97-26 Telecoms Traffic Forecasting - The Need for Speed Ian Hall & Fraser Burton, BT Labs, UK 97-28 Forecasts and Risk Analysis of PNO and CATV Operators by Introducing Broadband Upgrades in the Access Network Kjell Stordahl, Leif Aarthun Ims, Borgar Torre Olsen, Telenor Network AS Session 3C PRICE CAPS: THE X-FACTOR, PRODUCTIVITY & INPUT PRICES 97-12 Total Factor Productivity Measurement by the Stentor Companies and their Proposed Productivity Offset under Price Cap Regulation Judi Bodnar, Bell Canada 97-19 Setting The Offset Factor In The Price Cap Formula TBA, Bell Canada 4:00PM - 5:00PM CONCURRENT SESSIONS Session 4A PENETRATION STUDIES: BASIC ACCESS VERSUS SATIATION 97-29 Affordability of Telephone Service: A New Model for Improving Telephone Penetration Rates Eleanor K. Murray, Field Research Corporation 97-30 Limits To Growth In Telecom Markets? Jan-Petter Saether, Norwegian Telecommunications Authority Session 4B ANALYZING RESIDENTIAL DEMAND FOR COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES 97-49 Residential Customer Demand for Complex Telecommunications Packages B. Goungetas and J. Watters, SBC Communications, Inc. Session 4C ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES TO ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING IN TELECOMMUNICATIONS 97-01 An Application of Chaos Theory to the Dynamically Evolving Telecommunications Industry Structure Neal C. Stolleman, Bellcore 97-41 Forecasting With Artificial Neural Networks J. Stuart McMenamin, Regional Economic Research, Inc. 5:00PM - 6:00PM WINE AND CHEESE RECEPTION June 26 THURSDAY 8:30AM - 10:00AM KEYNOTE SPEECH "Telecommunications: A Wall Street Perspective" Peter Darbee, Chief Financial Officer and Controller Pacific Bell 10:30AM - 12:00Noon TOWN MEETING - MERGER MANIA This Town Meeting will be moderated by Robert E. Stoffels, the former editor of "America's Network" the industry's leading technology- focused trade publication. Panelists: Peter Darbee CFO Pacific Bell James G. Melonas Bell Atlantic Integration Control Team Leader Bell Atlantic Wayne Graham Senior Manger, Financial Planning & Reporting PTI 12:00Noon - 1:30PM LUNCH - PROVIDED 1:30PM - 2:30PM CONCURRENT SESSIONS Session 5A FORECASTING IN WIRELESS FOR PRODUCTS AND POSITION 97-20 Discrete Choice Analysis for Product Design and Pricing: A PCS Case Study Laura J. Hopkins, Terry J. Atherton, Cambridge Systematics Moshe Ben-Akiva, Massachusetts Institute of Technology 97-43 Market Forecasting of CDMA Commercialization in Korea Dr. Seung Hee Choi, ETRI, Korea Session 5B THE UNEXPECTED IN FORECASTING: INHERITED ERROR AND CREATED OPPORTUNITIES 97-32 Forecasting Tertiary Telecommunications Market Opportunities James Shaw, University of San Francisco 97-37 Who Can You Trust? Using the Best Macroeconomic Forecasts David G. Loomis, Illinois State University Session 5C CRADLE AND GRAVE MARKET ANALYSIS 97-24 Diffusion Pattern of Telex Service in KOREA Kyung Hwan Cho, Electronics and Telecommunications Research Institute 97-48 A Bayesian Approach for Estimating Target Market Potential with Limited Geodemographic Information Daniel S. Putler, Purdue University and University of British Columbia Kirthi Kalyanam, Santa Clara University James S. Hodges, University of Minnesota 3:00PM - 4:00PM CONCURRENT SESSION Session 6A TELECOMMUNICATIONS AND FORECASTING ON THE INTERNET 97-36 What's New on the Internet in Telecommunications and Forecasting? David G. Loomis, Illinois State University Session 6B IMPROVED FORECASTING & ANALYSIS EMPLOYING DATA BASE SOLUTIONS 97-02 RevSys - A Database Solution To Forecasting Consolidation & Reporting J. Brown - NYNEX 97-45 Data Warehousing & Activities Based Costing R. L. Woerner, Pacific Bell Session 6C Session Title: "TO BE DETERMINED" 97-51 Proxy Models: Who Said That Dreams Can't Become Reality? Victor Glass, National Exchange Carrier Association 97-13 Network Information Management: The Tool For Success In The Ever Growing Telecommunication Market David Brogdon, Bear Creek Technologies 4:00PM - 5:00PM Concurrent Sessions Session 7A CHALLENGES TO FORECASTING DUE TO REGULATORY AND MARKET EVOLUTION 97-23 Future Challenges Facing China's New Telecommunications Entrant: A S.W.O.T Analysis Of 'China Unicom' Xu Yan, Douglas C. Pitt, Niall Levine, Strathclyde Business School, UK 97-47 How US, European & International Telecommunications Competition Law and Regulatory Policy Affect Market Forecasting Mark Naftel, Belgacom Session 7B CUSTOMER CHOICES FOR NEW SERVICES 97-06 Enhancing Consumer Choice Models Through Application Of In-Depth Analysis Of Behavioral Drivers Doug Clark, Southwestern Bell Communications, Inc. 97-31 Analysis Of Customer Expectations For The Introduction Of New Telecommunications Dr. Ing. Bartolomeo Sapio & Isabella Maria Palumbino Fondazione Ugo Bordoni Session 7C CHOICES FOR LONG DISTANCE CARRIERS 97-40A Using Tobit Regression To Analyze Consumer Churn Among Long Distance Carriers R. Bruce Williamson and Jain-Shing Chen, SBC Communications 97-40B Modeling Consumer "Spells" with Long Distance Carriers R. Bruce Williamson, John S. Watters, and Basile Goungetas, SBC Communications June 27 Friday 8:00AM - 9:30AM TOWN MEETING on the INTERNET This Town Meeting will be moderated by Padmanabhan Srinagesh, Principal, Charles River Associates, Incorporated. Panelists: Professor Hal Varian, Dean, School of Information Management and Systems, UC Berkeley Professor Lester Taylor, Professor of Economics and Professor of Agriculture and Natural Resource Economics, University of Arizona Craig Partridge, Senior Scientist, BBN Corporation and Adjunct Faculty, Computer Science, Stanford University Milo Medin, Vice President, Networks Systems, @Home 10:30AM - 12:00 Noon FREE TUTORIALS Telecommunications Forecasting Survey Design And Analysis Dr. John Colias of the M/A/R/C Group Neural Networks And Demand Forecasting Dr. Richard Hoptroff of Right Information Systems ----------------------------------------- PRE-CONFERENCE SEMINARS AT A SPECIAL DISCOUNT Register directly with the Seminar sponsor and indicate you will be attending the ICFC. Classes will be held at the Conference Hotel. "Customer Choice: Empirical Methods for Analysis & Forecasting" UC-Berkeley June 23-24, 1997 510 642-6649 http://elsa.berkeley.edu/eml/icfc.html "Technology Forecasting For Telecom Industry" Technology Futures, Inc., June 22-24, 1997 800 TEK-FUTR http://www.tfi.com "Business Forecasting on the IBM PC Business Forecasting Systems, Inc. June 22-24, 1997 617 484-5050 http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/forecastpro ----------------- REGISTRATION FORM If you wish to register for the conference now, please fill out the form below and mail, fax or e-mail to the address indicated. The early registration fee is $745.00 in US dollars Before May 23, 1997. After May 23, 1997 the registration fee will be $795.00 in US dollars. For joint participants (early registration and one of three seminars), the fee is $695.00 in US dollars. However, if you register late and attend a seminar, the fee will be $745.00. Payment may be made by check, money order or credit card. First Name_____________________ Last Name_____________________________ Company Name & Title__________________________________________________ Street _______________________________________________________________ Prov./State_______________Country_________________ Postal Code/Zip________ Tel.________________Fax______________Internet e-mail__________________ Method of Payment: Check [ ] Money order [ ] Credit Card [ ] If Credit Card: American Express [ ] Visa [ ] Mastercard [ ] JCB [ ] Diner's [ ] Enroute [ ] Discover [ ] Card Number_________________________ Exp.Date_________ If Check or Money order, please make payable to "ICFC 1997", and send it to: ICFC 1997 Attn: Don Gorman 204 Murray School Road Pottstown, PA 19465 Voice: 610-469-0515 Fax: 610-469-6626 Internet e-mail: don.gorman@worldnet.att.net If you pay by credit card, please call, send fax or e-mail to Don Gorman with the information requested. HOTEL ACCOMODATIONS All hotel reservations must be booked by the conferee. Call the Sir Francis Drake Hotel directly at 415-392-7755 or 800-227-5480 for reservations. Be sure to mention that you are attending the 1997 ICFC in order to receive the special room rates. REGISTER EARLY SINCE THE SPECIAL ROOM RATES CAN ONLY BE GUARANTEED UNTIL MAY 23, 1997. ------------------------------ Subject: When Regulators Attack Area Codes Date: Wed, 14 May 1997 20:09:42 EDT From: Dave Levenson Organization: Westmark, Inc. Reply-To: dave@westmark.com While Parma, Ohio attempts to regulate area codes, I am reminded that a New Jersey lawmaker, several months ago, proposed legislation which would have made it illegal for Bell Atlantic to split a municipality between area codes. A Bell Atlantic spokesperson pointed out that the effect of the proposed legislation would have been a change in the full ten-digit telephone numbers of thousands of New Jersey residents. Nobody pointed out, in the ensuing public debate, that some New Jersey municipalities have straddled area code boundaries for years, and somehow, the residents all survive. Dave Levenson Internet: dave@westmark.com Westmark, Inc. Voice: 908 647 0900 Web: http://www.westmark.com Stirling, NJ, USA Fax: 908 647 6857 ------------------------------ From: Ben-Zion Y. Cassouto Subject: Telephony History and Preservation Date: Wed, 14 May 1997 15:04:01 +0200 Reply-To: benzion@il.ibm.com I am seeking users, switchmen and network operations professionals with an interest in telephony history, particularly North American, urban, 1920-1975. I am collecting info and recordings, particularly re: urban Panel, XBAR 1, OST, PST networks: 1. Routing and other network operations info/documentation. 2. Audio recordings of call placement and office tone signals. I have assembled a very thorough survey of over 50 NY City area panel, xbar 1, xbar 5 offices - recordings and routing information. Included are Office Selector Tandems, Panel Sender Tandems (eg: Suburban Tandem), XBAR 1 tandems and some toll as well. I am also seeking an interested organization/institution for archiving, display and preserving for research, of these materials. I would appreciate all feedback ... ------------------------------ From: voe@telalink.net (Michael Wright) Subject: Re: Are Cordless' as Bad as Cellulars? Date: Wed, 14 May 1997 12:53:15 GMT Organization: Telalink Corporation, Nashville, TN, USA Bemson wrote: > My family and I benefited greatly from a research report posted about > the dangers of cellular phone usage in association with brain tumors > and cancers. > I know little to nothing about phones or electronics, so I > would like to know if cordless phones pose a similar threat, or to > understand how the differences in engineering make have not caused a > concern for cordless phones. There is no research out there that has established ANY causal relationship between cell phones and brain tumors. And there never will be. A cell phone operates with a transmitter power of only 3/4 of a watt. As you read this, you are sitting in a far more powerful electromagnetic field, the one generated by your computer monitor. As to cordless phones, they operate with a transmitter power of 100 milliwatts (one-tenth of a watt) so they, too, constitute no hazard whatsoever ... at least from the magnetic field. By way of comparison, many radio stations throw off 100,000 watts ( one million times the energy of a cordless phone) and the transmitter personnel sit in that electromagnetic field all day, every day with no problems. The cellphone / brain-tumor *scare* is just another example of Junk Science Meets Tabloid Media. Michael ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 14 May 1997 10:07:43 -0400 From: jds99@aol.com (John Smith) Organization: AOL http://www.aol.com Subject: Telecom Engineer Needs in NJ The company that I work for is looking for Telecom Engineers for assignments in New Jersey. Should be fairly knowledgeable about features of digital switches and/or transmission (carrier) equipment, and/or operations systems. Retirees or "downsized Telco folks" would be a good fit. EE or equivalent is preferred. If you know anyone who might be interested please reply to this mail and I will connect you with correct person. John Smith jds99@aol.com ------------------------------ From: plaws@cherokee.wildstar.net (Peter Laws) Subject: Re: City Fire Alarm Pull Boxes Date: 15 May 1997 16:48:01 -0500 Organization: Wildstar Internet Services Interesting how this thread keeps coming back. I've collected some info on Fire Alarm Telegraph Systems and have it posted at http://www.wildstar.net/~plaws/scan/box.shtml. Always looking for more. Peter ******** lwinson@bbs.cpcn.com (Lee Winson) wrote in comp.dcom.telecom (TELECOM DIGEST): > I was wondering if other cities have removed their boxes. They've been > gone in Trenton NJ for years. See http://www.wildstar.net/~plaws/scan/box.shtml for a list of cities that have kept their systems. Click on the image of Hudson, Mass Box 5111 to hear what a Gamewell 10" station gong sounds like. Being in a fire alarm office when a box came in, or better, when a box was repeated to the stations, is quite a rush if you're into legacy systems. > Actually, when I was a child, I was confused by emergency training. I Me too. All the films talked about boxes, but our suburb of Montreal never had them! ******** jmolter@pitnet.net (JeepMan) wrote in comp.dcom.telecom (TELECOM DIGEST): > corners. Pull box one side unlocked and on other side police call > to call in to stations. May add surviving Police boxes to the list. Early versions had a handle that was used to select the message to be sent to HQ. Some (me included) believe that the police radio "ten codes" come from telegraphic police boxes, i.e. 10 taps on the key follwed by 4 more meant "message received". Easier than teaching officers the (American) Morse code, I guess. The Boston FD still uses 10 codes on the remnant of their telegraph systemi, i.e. when 10-1-5 is transmitted, watch officers lower firehouse flags to half-staff to honor the death notice that follows. ******** oldbear@arctos.com (The Old Bear) wrote in comp.dcom.telecom (TELECOM DIGEST): > Many of the boxes also contained an old-fashion morse code key inside > the box, which could be unlocked by the arriving firemen and used to > send messages back to the firehouse. Certainly quaint by today's > standards! Actually, that job would usually fall to the chief's aide. Most often, the aide would tap out a prefix, then trip the box again. For a 2nd alarm at box 1511, he might tap out 2, 2, then trip the box to trnsmit 1-5-1-1 again. Much of the telegraph terminology survives today. "Alarms" (as in third alarm, fourth alarm, etc) are still used in many places. A "still alarm" is either an alarm reported by telephone or an alarm reported by a citizen showing up at the firehouse - either way, the bells stay still. A chief that calls in extra resources rapidly is said to be "leaning on the hook" ... > The beauty of the system was its simplicity. And no doubt the reason why many cities still have them. > I worked with the City of Boston in 1969-72, and I recall a number of Boston's system, the first, recorded it's first alarm on April 26, 1852. It's still recording alarms, though the box circuits feed the CAD. > Anyway, the city had long since stopped maintaining its own wires in > most locations and was getting dry copper from New England telephone I'm not sure this is still true, given the amount of radio traffic between Fire Alarm and the wire crews about grounds, shorts, etc. > technicians had been experimenting with what other data or voice they > might be able to run over the same copper loops, but datacom in those Vancouver, BC, Canada pulled their boxes in 1995 and are also experimenting with data transmission. > seismographs, used spring driven clockworks and ink pens mounted on > the ends of magnetic arms to keep a permanent record of the exact > time and date of each alarm. All the systems I've seen punch the tape. The watch officer would have to manually record the date/time/box number in the house journal. > Or, as Ogden Nash wrote: > there isn't any three-L lllama. (*) Mr Nash obviously wasn't a "spark". Peter Laws / plaws@wildstar.net ------------------------------ End of TELECOM Digest V17 #122 ******************************