Subj : TROPDISC: Atlantic Gale To : All From : Dumas Walker Date : Tue Mar 18 2025 08:56 am 835 AXNT20 KNHC 181039 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Tue Mar 18 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1035 UTC. ....SPECIAL FEATURES... W Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends 31N71W to E Cuba. A low pressure system is forecast to develop along this front tonight, which will support the development of gale-force winds and very rough seas between Bermuda and the Bahamas tonight through Wed. Afterward, winds and seas will gradually diminish across the region through Thu night. ....MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through Sierra Leone near 07.5N12.5W and continues southwestward to 04N18W. The ITCZ extends from 04N18W to the coast of NE Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 04N and west of 15W. ....GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure dominates the basin, supporting moderate to fresh northerly winds east of 87W and seas of 6-11 ft. An altimeter pass from a few hours ago showed seas to 11 ft in the Loop Current, west of the Dry Tortugas. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and moderate seas are found west of 94W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh N winds and rough seas in the SE Gulf will continue to diminish today. Meanwhile, a tightening pressure gradient in the western half of the basin will result in fresh to strong S winds today and tonight ahead of the next cold front forecast to come off the coast of Texas Wed morning. The front will reach from southern Alabama to Veracruz Wed night, from Cape Coral to the Yucatan Peninsula Thu afternoon, and exit the basin Thu night into Fri. The front will be followed by fresh to strong N winds and rough seas. Winds may approach gale force Thu afternoon off Veracruz. Winds and seas will diminish across the basin on Fri morning. ....CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from SE Cuba to the Honduras/Nicaragua border. Fresh to strong winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are behind the front spilling in through the Yucatan Channel. A few showers are noted near the boundary. Fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate seas are noted in the south-central Caribbean. In the remainder of the basin, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds and rough seas follow a cold front that extends from SE Cuba to Cabo Gracias a Dios, Honduras. The weakening frontal boundary will continue eastward before dissipating tonight into Wed. Building high pressure in the wake of the front N of the area will lead to the development of pulsing fresh to strong NE winds in the lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage late today through Wed evening. In the central and portions of the SW Caribbean, fresh to strong NE-E winds will prevail through early next week. High pressure will build near the Bahamas over the weekend and trade winds will increase across the region, with near gale-force winds developing offshore Colombia. Rough to very rough seas will build off Colombia and into the SW Caribbean Wed night into the weekend. ....ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak 1007 mb low pressure is located near 25N58W. Strong to near gale-force E-SE winds are occurring north of 26N and between 43W and 61W. Rough to very rough seas are found in the area described. The center is devoid of deep convection but scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident north of 20N and between 43W and 52W. Additional development of this low is not expected as it moves northwestward into an environment of strong upper-level winds and dry air on Tuesday. A surface trough extends from the low center to the northern Leeward Islands. As previously mentioned, cold front extends 31N71W to SE Cuba. Scattered showers are ahead of the front but mainly N of 24N. Cold air stratocumulus clouds are noted in the wake of the front. Fresh to strong NW winds are behind the front with seas of 8 to 11 ft. A ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are across the waters from 12N to 24N between the coast of Africa and 35W, including through the Cabo Verde Islands. Moderate to fresh trades are noted across the tropical Atlantic with seas of 5 to 8 ft. Rough to very rough seas in long period NW swell are affecting the Madeira and Canary Islands. For the forecast west of 55W, winds and seas associated with the aforementioned low pressure will persist in the northern semicircle as the low moves north and exits the forecast waters by Wed morning. Strong to near gale-force winds will precede and continue to follow a cold front that extends from 31N71W to E Cuba. The front will reach from near Bermuda to N Hispaniola this afternoon, and from 31N60W to Puerto Rico Wed morning. A low pressure system is forecast to develop along this front tonight, which will support the development of gale-force winds and very rough seas between Bermuda and the Bahamas tonight through Wed evening. Afterward, winds and seas will gradually diminish across the region through Thu night. Looking ahead, a third strong front is forecast to come off the Florida NE coast Thu. $$ Delgado --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175) .