Subj : TROPDISC: Gale Warnings To : All From : Dumas Walker Date : Mon Mar 17 2025 08:31 am 829 AXNT20 KNHC 171000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Mon Mar 17 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ....SPECIAL FEATURE... Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1011 mb low pressure is analyzed near 24N54W. Recent satellite derived wind data indicate gale force winds in the northern semicircle of the low, particularly from 25N to 29N between 50W and 55W. These winds are within a larger area of fresh to strong easterly winds that covers roughly the waters from 22N to 31N between 41W and 62W. These winds are the result of the pressure gradient between the low pressure and strong high pressure located N of the low. Gale conditions will likely last through tonight, then diminish to fresh to strong winds through Tue morning. This pattern will also support rough to very rough seas east of 70W through mid week. The low will move toward the NW over the next 24 hours, then northward through mid- week while weakening. W Atlantic Gale Warning: An occluded low is expected to develop in the vicinity of a cold front by midweek. The front is already moving across the W Atlantic, analyzed from 31N79W to 28N81W. Gale conditions will begin on Tue night near 29N71W, then drift E through Wed as the system moves E. Rough to very rough seas will prevail with these winds. ....MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the Liberia/Sierra Leone border near 07N12W and continues southwestward to 03N16W. The ITCZ extends from 03N16W to 01S30W to the coast of NE Brazil near 02.5S42W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 300 nm on either side of the boundaries. ....GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from 26N82W to 21N87W. Scattered moderate convection is noted ahead of the front, affecting the Yucatan Channel. This convective activity is also reaching the Yucatan Channel. High pressure of 1025 mb centered over the NW Gulf follows the front. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds and moderate to rough seas are noted in the wake of the front while gentle to moderate SW winds are moderate seas are occurring ahead of the front. Winds and seas could be higher near tstms. For the forecast, the front will continue to move southeast and away from the area this morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front will prevail though tonight. Looking ahead, high pressure will settle over the basin through mid week. As the high pressure moves toward N Florida, fresh to strong southerly return flow will set-up over the NW Gulf tonight into Tue. Looking ahead, the next cold front is expected to enter the Gulf region by mid week. ....CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface ridge extends across the Bahamas and Cuba into the NW Caribbean while a cold front is moving across the SE Gulf of Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula. This pattern is allowing for fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over the NW Caribbean and near the coast of Colombia, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. Scattered moderate convection prevails in the Yucatan Channel ahead of a cold front. For the forecast, the cold front will enter the NW Caribbean this morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas will follow the front, which is forecast to reach from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by tonight, and from the Windward Passage to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua on Tue before dissipating Tue night into Wed. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will prevail across the NW Carribbean through mid week. In addition, NE fresh to strong winds will pulse across southern Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Haiti through the same period due to a developing low pressure north of the area. Seas in this area will range from 4 to 8 ft. High pressure over the central north Atlantic combined with the Colombian low will support pulsing winds to fresh to strong speeds at night offshore Colombia throughout the forecast period. ....ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect for the central Atlantic associated with a strengthening low pressure. Another Gale Warning will develop in the W Atlantic by midweek in the vicinity of an occluded low. Refer to the Special Features section for more details. Aside from the gale areas, high pressure ridge extends across the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters. A cold front reaches the Canary Islands followed by moderate to fresh winds and 8 to 15 ft seas in NW swell, east of 35W. Moderate to fresh trade winds dominate the tropical Atlantic with seas of 5 to 8 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, as the above mentioned low moves NW over the next 24 hours, gale-force winds east of 55W will prevail through tonight. Winds will then diminishing to fresh to strong through Tue morning. This pattern will also support rough to very rough seas east of 70W through mid week. Farther west, a strong cold front has pushed off the SE United States coast, with fresh to near-gale force winds and rough seas in its vicinity. The front will reach from 31N68W to the Turks and Caicos and eastern Cuba Tue morning, and from Bermuda to Puerto Rico Wed morning. By mid week, a low pressure system may develop along this front supporting near-gale to gale force winds and very rough seas between Bermuda and the Bahamas. $$ ERA --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175) .