Subj : TROPDISC: Atlantic Gale To : All From : Dumas Walker Date : Wed Mar 12 2025 07:30 am 781 AXNT20 KNHC 121017 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed Mar 12 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ....SPECIAL FEATURES... W Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front enters the SW North Atlantic waters, extending from a 996 mb low centered just N of Bermuda through 31N61W to the east coast of Cuba. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection and strong to gale-force SW winds are occurring within 150 nm east of the front north of 24N. Recent satellite scatterometer data captured fresh to gale-force southerly winds ahead of the front to near 50W and north of 21N. Strong to near gale-force NW to W winds are occurring behind the front to 74W and north of 23N. Large NW to W swell behind the front is producing a significant area of seas 12 ft and greater N of 25N between the front and 75W early this morning that will shift eastward through Thu. The front is expected to reach from 31N55W to the NE Dominican Republic by Wed evening, and from 23N55W to eastern Dominican Republic by Thu evening. SW gales ahead of the front will continue through Wed evening before lifting N of 31N. Winds and seas will diminish from west to east through late week as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic in the wake of the front. ....MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10.5N14.5W and continues southwestward to 00.5N20W. The ITCZ extends from 00.5N20W to 00N41W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 04.5N and between 10W and 51W. ....GULF OF MEXICO... 1020 mb high pressure centered over the east central Gulf dominates the basin, and is maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. Moderate southerly winds and seas prevail west of 93W. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and slight seas are found off western Yucatan. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are prevalent. For the forecast, high pressure centered over the E central Gulf will slide eastward across Florida and into the W Atlantic Thu. Moderate to fresh southerly return flow will set up over the western Gulf today, then weaken Thu as a front approaches SE Texas. Southerly winds will then increase to fresh to strong speeds across most of the basin Fri, then to strong Fri night ahead of a cold front. The cold front will move into the NW Gulf early Sat, and quickly weaken, reaching from the Florida Panhandle to just S of Veracruz, Mexico by Sun morning. ....CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from the E coast of Cuba to the Bay Islands and northern Honduras. Widely scattered shallow showers are occurring near this boundary. High pressure over the central Atlantic supports fresh to strong easterly trade winds across the south- central Caribbean waters S of 13N, along with seas of 4-6 ft. Moderate to locally fresh E winds are noted in the SE Caribbean and in the lee of Cuba. Seas in these waters are slight to moderate. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the aforementioned front will gradually become W to E aligned from central Hispaniola to northern Belize by Wed night before dissipating. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas will prevail N of the front through this morning. Otherwise, weak high pressure N of the area will support moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds offshore of northwestern Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela most of the week. Winds there will pulse to fresh to strong speeds at night during the upcoming weekend. Fresh to strong SE to S winds will develop across the Gulf of Honduras and NW Caribbean Fri night becoming strong on Sat as strong high pressure builds across the western Atlantic. ....ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section about an ongoing Gale Warning in the SW North Atlantic. The SW North Atlantic west of 55W is dominated by a strong cold front moving across the waters, with the impacts associated with this boundary described above in the Special Features section. Farther east, a cold front enters the basin near 31N19W to 26N30W, becoming a stationary front to 24N51W. Isolated showers are noted near this boundary. Fresh to strong W-NW winds are present north of 29N and between 24W and 38W, along with rough seas to 12 ft in NW swell. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge that sustains moderate to fresh NE to E winds south of 20N. Seas in this area are 6-9 ft, with the highest seas occurring between the Cabo Verde Islands and the African mainland. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate to locally rough seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, the W Atlantic cold front is expected to reach from 31N55W to the NE Dominican Republic by Wed evening, and from 23N55W to eastern Dominican Republic by Thu evening. The southern portion of the front will then become stationary across the coastal waters of Puerto Rico by Fri morning then dissipate. SW gales ahead of the front will persist through Wed evening before lifting N of 31N. Large NW to W swell behind the front is producing a significant area of seas 12 ft and greater N of 25N between the front and 75W early this morning that will shift eastward through Thu. Winds and seas will diminish from west to east through Fri as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic in the wake of the front. Looking ahead, strong high pressure will settle across the N central Atlantic Fri night through the upcoming weekend, producing increasing easterly winds and building seas. $$ Stripling --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175) .