Subj : TROPDISC: Gale Warning To : All From : Dumas Walker Date : Mon Mar 10 2025 08:53 am 742 AXNT20 KNHC 101031 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Mon Mar 10 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ....SPECIAL FEATURES... W Atlantic Gale Warning: A complex low pressure system and an associated cold front will move eastward off the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina this afternoon through evening. Strong S to SW winds are expected within 300 nm ahead of the front, with strong thunderstorms likely to develop along the front and will be capable of producing gale-force wind gusts. Strong to gale-force W to NW winds and very rough seas will quickly develop behind the front beginning this evening. The front is expected to reach from 31N69W to the central Bahamas Tue morning, and from 31N58W to the N coast of Haiti by Wed morning. W to NW gale conditions should remain N of 27.5N and gradually shift eastward between 80W and 64W through late Tue afternoon, before the low pressure system lifts further N of the area, and winds subside slightly. A large area of 12 to 18 ft seas in W to NW swell will be generated by this system, N of 26N and behind the cold front. Seas will gradually subside west of 60W Wed night through Thu night. ....MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of Africa near 07N12W and continues to 02S25W to 01S31W. No ITCZ is evident. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted S of 05N between 10W and 51W. ....GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front moving into the eastern Gulf currently extends from low pressure 1008 mb just offshore of Panama City, Florida to the NW Yucatan Peninsula. A stationary front stretches E of the low to the Florida Big Bend and to the western Atlantic. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted north of 25N and within 120 nm east of the. Behind the cold front, fresh to strong NW to N winds and seas of 7 to 11 ft prevail. To the east of the front, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft prevail. Seas are slight in and near the Florida Straits. For the forecast, trong winds and rough to very rough seas follow the front and it moves eastward across the remainder of the Gulf through early Tue. Winds and seas will gradually diminish from west to east today as the front exits the Gulf. High pressure will slide eastward across the northern Gulf Tue through Thu. Looking ahead, expect fresh to strong southerly winds and building seas across the basin by Fri, ahead of a cold front moving through the southerly Plains. ....CARIBBEAN SEA... Weak ridging dominates the basin, centered on a 1018 mb high near 25.5N65W. Moderate to fresh E winds prevail across the central Caribbean south of 15N, with locally strong trade winds occurring over the Gulf of Honduras, offshore Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate SE to S winds prevail over the NW Caribbean, ahead of the Gulf of Mexico cold front. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate easterly winds prevail. Seas 3 to 5 ft seas are noted across most of the basin, except for seas 6 to 8 ft offshore Colombia. For the forecast, the weak ridge north of the area will continue to support moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds offshore of northwestern Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, and will pulse to fresh to strong during the evening to early morning hours through Tue morning, then return Thu through Fri. A cold front will move across the Gulf of Mexico and enter the northwestern Caribbean this evening, reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Tue morning, then stall from eastern Cuba to Belize early Wed before dissipating Wed afternoon. Expect fresh to locally strong N winds and locally rough seas behind the front through Tue morning. ....ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning that has been issued for Atlantic waters offshore the SE United States. A weak cold front extends from near 31N41W to 20N65W. The weak high pressure described above near 25.5N65W is producing gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds N and W of the front. Large W to NW swell generated by a storm system centered north of the area is shifting eastward across the central Atlantic waters early this morning. Seas of 8 to 13 ft are occurring north of 19N between 35W and 63W. This swell will shift into the eastern Atlantic tonight through Tue. South of the front, gentle to moderate trade winds prevail across the Tropical Atlantic S of 20N. Seas there are 5 to 8 ft in NW and N swell. In the far E Atlantic, fresh N to NE winds and seas of 8 to 13 ft dominate the waters between the Cabo Verde and Canary islands, with seas N of the Canary Islands up to 16 ft in strong N swell. Further west, a stationary front extends along 30N from S of Bermuda to coastal South Carolina. Moderate southerly winds are generally west of 74W, across the Bahamas to coastal Georgia. Seas across open waters there are 3 to 5 ft, and 5 to 7 ft between 55W and 70W. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary boundary along 30N will lift northward today ahead of low pressure approaching the area from the west. This low pressure will move off the Georgia and South Carolina coasts this afternoon then shift eastward tonight. An associated cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast this evening, accompanied by strong to near gale- force winds and quickly building seas. The front will reach from Bermuda to east central Cuba Tue afternoon, followed by strong to gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas. The low will lift out to the northeast by mid week, as the front weakens while moving east of the area, with a trailing portion of the front stalling along roughly 20N on Thu before dissipating. Winds and seas will dissipate from west to east through late week as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic in the wake of the front. $$ Stripling --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175) .