Subj : TROPDISC: Atlantic Gale W To : All From : Dumas Walker Date : Wed Mar 05 2025 09:59 am 942 AXNT20 KNHC 051054 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC 1215 UTC Wed Mar 5 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ....SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: S to SW winds will strengthen to gale force by late morning offshore of northeastern Florida as a cold front pushes off the coast of the southeastern United States and rapidly progresses eastward. Gale force winds will continue along and ahead of the front through Thu night north of 29N. Behind the front, gale force NW winds are expected Thu morning through Thu night north of 29N. N to NW swell associated with this system will propagate southeastward through late week, producing rough seas north of 25N through Thu, and north of 21N through Fri. Peak seas of 15 to 19 ft are anticipated north of 27N between 78W and 60W through late this week. ....MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 05N09W and extends to 01N18W. The ITCZ continues from 01N18W to 01S47W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 04S to 07N between 10W and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 0600 UTC, a cold front extends from coastal Alabama near 30N88W to offshore of Tampico, Mexico, and is generating a line of heavy showers and tstms across the Florida Panhandle and the NE Gulf offshore waters. Strong to locally near-gale force SW winds are occurring ahead of the cold front in the northeastern basin, and peak seas to 11 ft are accompanying the winds. Fresh to strong NW winds are ongoing behind the front over the NW Gulf where seas are 6 to 10 ft. Elsewhere, strong to near-gale force NW winds are noted in the western Bay of Campeche offshore of Veracruz. Seas in the SW Gulf are 2 to 5 ft. Over the SE Gulf and ahead of the front, winds are moderate to fresh from the SE and seas are 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will progress southeastward today. Strong to near-gale force S to SW winds and rough seas will occur ahead of the cold front this morning north of 27N, with widespread fresh S winds likely across the eastern half of the basin. Behind the cold front, expect fresh to strong NW winds with occasional gusts to gale force as well as rough seas, mainly north of 27.5N in the northern Gulf, and offshore of Veracruz. Fresh to strong NW winds will prevail in the northeastern Gulf through early Thu, north of 25.5N and east of 95W, as the front moves southeastward and exits the basin tonight, and high pressure builds over the central United States. Ridging will extend over the basin on Thu and Fri, supporting moderate E to SE winds across the basin, with fresh winds occurring west of 90W. Another cold front is slated to enter the NW Gulf by Sat night, and gale conditions will be possible offshore Veracruz on Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1029 mb high centered north of the area near 37N62W is extending ridging across the Bahamas and the northern Caribbean. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the Colombian low continues to support fresh to locally strong E winds offshore of Colombia along with 6 to 7 ft seas. Moderate to fresh SE winds are noted in the northwestern basin ahead of a cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico, and locally strong SE winds are noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas range from 2 to 5 ft across the basin. For the forecast, trade winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong speeds offshore of Colombia and through the Gulf of Venezuela each night and morning through this weekend, as low pressure prevails over northwestern Colombia. A strengthening pressure gradient between a cold front moving southeastward through the Gulf of Mexico, the Colombian low, and high pressure over the western Atlantic will support fresh NE winds through the Windward Passage early this morning, and fresh to strong SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras through late morning. The aforementioned cold front will enter the northwestern Caribbean tonight and gradually weaken, with moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds expected behind the front through Thu morning. Otherwise, moderate trade winds and slight to moderate seas are expected across the central and eastern Caribbean into this weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning off the coast of NE Florida. A stationary front extends from 31N46W southwestward to 21N66W, and a 1029 high is centered north of the area near 37N62W. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting fresh to locally strong NE winds north of the stationary front, as well as rough seas of 8 to 11 ft. Farther west, fresh to strong S to SE winds are ongoing across the Bahamas and offshore of eastern Florida ahead of a strong storm system moving through the southeastern United States. Localized near-gale force winds are noted north of 29N and west of 78W, where seas of 8 to 11 ft prevail. Elsewhere, a broad surface ridge extending from a 1022 mb high SW of the Azores reaches into the tropical waters. Winds over the central and eastern subtropical waters are gentle to moderate from the NE to E and seas are 6 to 8 ft. Over the tropics, trades are moderate to fresh W of 38W and seas are 8 to 9 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, strong S winds will occur this morning north of 27N and west of 75W ahead of a cold front moving through the southeastern United States. S to SW winds will strengthen to gale force by late morning offshore of northeastern Florida as the front pushes off the coast and rapidly progresses eastward. Gale force winds will continue along and ahead of the front through Thu night north of 29N. Behind the front, gale force NW winds are expected Thu morning through Thu night north of 29N. N to NW swell associated with this system will propagate southeastward through late week, producing rough seas north of 25N through Thu, and north of 21N through Fri. Peak seas of 15 to 19 ft are anticipated north of 27N between 78W and 60W through late this week. The storm system will progress eastward across the central Atlantic through Fri before lifting north and east of the forecast waters. Elsewhere, fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas will prevail north of a stationary front today, extending from 31N46W to 21N66W. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades and rough seas will prevail south of 25N this week. $$ ADAMS --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175) .