Subj : Heavy Rain/Flooding AL/FL To : All From : Dumas Walker Date : Thu Sep 12 2024 08:45 am AWUS01 KWNH 120926 FFGMPD FLZ000-ALZ000-121525- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0994 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 525 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Areas affected...Southern AL...FL Panhandle Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 120925Z - 121525Z SUMMARY...Strong bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms associated with weakening Tropical Storm Francine will impact areas of southern AL and especially the FL Panhandle this morning. High rainfall rates and localized training of storms will likely result in some areas of flash flooding. DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery in conjunction with dual-pol radar shows a couple of stronger bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms tending to become better organized and focused across portions of the western FL Panhandle and the offshore waters of the Gulf of Mexico. This convection is associated with increasingly convergent and very moist low-level southerly flow while coinciding with an axis of moderately strong instability gradually shifting north in connection with a warm front slowly lifting up across the central and eastern Gulf Coast region. MLCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg are situated very close to the western FL Panhandle, and this instability coupled with PWs of 2.2 to 2.4+ inches will be supporting extremely heavy rainfall rates with the stronger and more organized convective cells that materialize going through the morning hours. Overall, the low-level flow should become even more convergent over the next several hours and this coupled with proximity of the aforementioned front should favor plenty of forcing for multiple bands of strong convection. Rainfall rates may reach 2 to 3 inches/hour, and the latest HREF guidance and HRRR solutions suggest the FL Panhandle should be the focus for the heaviest rainfall totals with locally as much as 3 to 5 inches of rain possible by late morning. However, the environment will be conducive for some of these rainbands to train over the same location, and it's not out of the question that locally heavier rainfall totals of 6+ inches could materialize. Heavy rains should also nose northward into parts of southern AL, but with this region a bit more detached from the axis of greatest instability, the rainfall totals here are likely to be somewhat lower. Some areas of flash flooding will be likely given the high rainfall rates and concerns for localized training of these bands of heavier showers and thunderstorms. Orrison ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE... ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 31868716 31738601 31048516 30388476 29838478 29768539 30138605 30218656 30208686 30298720 30538741 31268757 --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175) .