Subj : Heavy Rain/Flooding LA/TX To : All From : Dumas Walker Date : Thu Sep 05 2024 08:47 am AWUS01 KWNH 051200 FFGMPD LAZ000-TXZ000-051757- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0977 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 759 AM EDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Areas affected...southern Louisiana, far southeast Texas Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 051157Z - 051757Z Summary...A gradual increase in flash flood potential should occur through the early afternoon. Discussion...A relatively focused band of convection extends along the south Louisiana coastline from south of Lake Charles to near Houma, with more scattered convection located just offshore over the far northern Gulf of Mexico. The convection was tied to a weak low centered just southeast of Galveston, with low-level confluence, 2.6+ inch PW values, abundant buoyancy (2000 J/kg MLCAPE - located mainly offshore), and weak steering flow aloft all supporting locally heavy rainfall with rates exceeding 2-3 inch/hr at times. Over the past hour, most of the heavier rain rates were located south/southeast of Galveston and with slow northward-moving convection near Houma. Furthermore, storms near Houma are oriented a bit more favorably for training/repeating, potentially supporting extreme rain rates in that area. Over time, both models and observations suggest a gradual increase in convection over land areas. This increase will likely be tied to both northward trajectories of cells from the Gulf and inland development of stronger buoyancy - perhaps reaching the I-10/12 corridor later this morning as insolation/heating increases. This should result in at least a few areas of excessive rainfall through the morning, with typical sensitive/low-lying and urban areas experiencing the greater flash flood threat through 18Z/1p CDT and probably beyond. Cook ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...LIX... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 30399080 30118938 29548893 29048909 28849033 29279209 29129478 29229510 29939453 30369318 --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175) .