Subj : Pandemic
To   : Dan Cross
From : Lee Lofaso
Date : Wed Mar 18 2020 02:19 am

Hello Dan,

>LL>Funny thing is the CDC used your math as its own basis to
>LL>determine how many people would likely die in the US as a result
>LL>of the coronavirus, at a kill rate of 1% of infected people.
>LL>So you know what the CDC's answer was?  1.7 million dead.
>LL>Just in the USA.
>
>The IFR (Infection-Fatality Rate) varies across locations
>in accordance to how developed healthcare infrastructure is
>in the location, capacity, etc.

There are only two ways to deal with this crisis -
* massive testing
* massive quarantine

The US has chosen to do neither, until very recently.
And even then, it is not doing enough.  Not nearly enough.

The overall mortality rate (all age groups) is 3.4% as defined
by WHO.  Those under age 20 are basically immune.  Those over age
80 have a heck of lot more to worry about than anybody else, as
they are basically goners.  But that is not the issue.  The CDC's
estimate is extremely low, and not based on sound science or
statistical review.

>In Italy it went through the roof once they ran out of hospital space and
> could no longer effectively treat people.  1% is about right for the US.

You think so?  You really think so?

South Korea has 12.3 hospital beds per 1,000 people.
Italy has 3.2 per 1,000 people.
The US has 2.8 per 1,000 people.

Let's try a wider sample, for comparison -

South Korea   12.3
Germany        8.0
France         6.0
China          4.3
Italy          3.2
USA            2.8

Source: The Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development
(OECO)

The US does not have near enough hospital beds to take care of
those in need.  At present, there are many flu patients who are
already filling beds.  Plus others.  That means hospitals as of
now are already two-thirds full.  And then there is the question
of the number of ICU beds available, which coronavirus patients
will definitely need.

In Italy, the normal death rate in ICU is 12% to 16%.  But now
the death rate is 50%.  While the US does have more ICU beds than
European countries do on average, the number of ICU beds needed
remains miniscule given the numbers of people who will need them.

US hospitals, already two-thirds full, meaning there would be
at least 17 patients per open bed.

The coronavirus will end up causing between 10 million and 34
million hospital visits, about one-fifth of those requiring ICU.

Not gonna happen, my man.  We gonna die.  Some of us fast,
some of us slow.  But we all gonna die.

--Lee

-- 
Everybody Loves Our Buns

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