Subj : Pandemic
To   : Dan Cross
From : Lee Lofaso
Date : Tue Mar 17 2020 11:19 pm

Hello Dan,

>RF>Nice write-up. Yeah, we're screwed.
>
>Thanks for the compliment; if only the news were better. :-(

Better for all.  The numbers today are mind boggling.  What
those numbers might become I don't even want to think about.

>RF>I tried the math from a different direction. I know firsthand how hard
>RF>it is to get a test, because my girlfriend has COVID and it took us a
>RF>week of begging and basically lying to providers to finally get the
>RF>test. "Confirmed Cases" is in no way an indication of how many people
>RF>are infected.
>
>Oh gosh; was she confirmed? How are you both doing?

I hope they survive.  I hope I survive.  I hope we all survive.

>RF>So let's start with the number of people dead from the virus in the US,
>RF>which (last I checked) is 69. The virus kills at a rate of 1% of
>RF>infected people. The incubation period is typically two-ish weeks before
>RF>people are symptomatic, so let's use 14 days as our assumed "infected
>RF>person" -> "dead person" metric (which is very conservative, actually).
>RF>That means, if we pretend that everyone that died of coronavirus in the
>RF>US died TODAY (false), that two weeks ago these people were all
>RF>infected. 1% death rate means start two weeks ago with 6900 infected
>RF>persons in the US. Now multiply by 1.4 (rate of daily infection) by 14
>RF>days and...we've got at least 135k infected people in the US. We're
>RF>hosed.
>
>Really really interesting analysis, but I'm going to
>quibble with your numbers just a tad.  In particular,
>the 69 deaths were cumulative, not just in one day.
>But I think that changes your numbers just by days,
>not fundamentally.

The CDC used a death rate mortality of 1%.
The WHO used a death rate mortality of 3.4%
The death rate mortality for Italy is at 7.8%.

>Yeah.  We're hosed.

Yeah.  Even the CDC is fudging the numbers, trying to present
a best-case scenario.  It ain't gonna happen, folks.  Look at Italy.
That is the new norm.

Number of infected in USA doubles every 3 days, same as in Italy.
Nobody in the news media wants to admit it.  But those are the facts,
given the statistics.

One other thing.  The curve (rate of infection) is not actually
parabolic, but quadratic.  You can chart it out on graph paper with
the numbers reported by the news media.  Statistics 101.

The whole world is screwed.

--Lee

-- 
I Take A Sheet In The Pool

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