Subj : Pandemic
To   : Ryan Fantus
From : Lee Lofaso
Date : Tue Mar 17 2020 09:02 pm

Ryan Fantus : Dan Cross used his keyboard to write :
>   DC> World-wide cases just topped 182,000 cases.  In the US, we've
>   DC> topped 4,200 and are doubling roughly every three days.  Since
>   DC> we do not have wide-scale testing, because Trump turned down
>   DC> tests from the WHO, we have no idea whether the social distancing
>   DC> measures put into place over the last week and a half are
>   DC> working, let alone sufficient.
>
> Nice write-up. Yeah, we're screwed.
>
> I tried the math from a different direction. I know firsthand how hard it
> is
> to get a test, because my girlfriend has COVID and it took us a week of
> begging and basically lying to providers to finally get the test.
> "Confirmed
> Cases" is in no way an indication of how many people are infected.
>
> So let's start with the number of people dead from the virus in the US,
> which
> (last I checked) is 69. The virus kills at a rate of 1% of infected people.
> The incubation period is typically two-ish weeks before people are
> symptomatic, so let's use 14 days as our assumed "infected person" -> "dead
> person" metric (which is very conservative, actually). That means, if we
> pretend that everyone that died of coronavirus in the US died TODAY
> (false),
> that two weeks ago these people were all infected. 1% death rate means
> start
> two weeks ago with 6900 infected persons in the US. Now multiply by 1.4
> (rate
> of daily infection) by 14 days and...we've got at least 135k infected
> people
> in the US. We're hosed.

Funny thing is the CDC used your math as its own basis to
determine how many people would likely die in the US as a result
of the coronavirus, at a kill rate of 1% of infected people.
So you know what the CDC's answer was?  1.7 million dead.
Just in the USA.

The WHO calculates the death rate at 3.4% - which means the CDC
is lowballing how many folks in the USA are likely to die.  But even
the WHO is lowballing the numbers, which in reality are much higher
- such as 7.8% in Italy - given the rate of infection is quadradic
rather than linear.

I'll let you do the math as to how fast this coronavirus is spreading.
WHO claims the numbers double every week (7-10 days) at a rate of 2.3
while the real numbers are showing the numbers doubling every 3 days.
Of course, this could be due to some areas not testing until recently,
thus skewing the numbers.

Bottom line, we are looking at 160+ million infected and 10 to 12
million dead people due to the coronavirus in the USA by the end of
this year - and maybe much higher.

--Lee

-- 
Get Her Wet Here

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