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### Viewing cable 10ANKARA150, TURKEY: OF COUPS AND CONSTITUTIONAL REFORMS

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Reference ID | Date | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | ---
10ANKARA150 | 2010-01-29 07:07 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Ankara

`

    VZCZCXRO1068
    PP RUEHSL
    DE RUEHAK #0150/01 0290744
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 290744Z JAN 10
    FM AMEMBASSY ANKARA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1927
    INFO RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL PRIORITY 6870
    RUEHAK/USDAO ANKARA TU PRIORITY
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
    RUEUITH/ODC ANKARA TU PRIORITY
    RUEKJCS/JCS WASHDC PRIORITY
    RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
    RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ANKARA 000150

    SIPDIS

    DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/26/2020
    TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS TU
    SUBJECT: TURKEY: OF COUPS AND CONSTITUTIONAL REFORMS

    REF: A. ANKARA 120
         ¶B. ANKARA 130
         ¶C. ANKARA 107
         ¶D. 09 ANKARA 1582
         ¶E. 09 ANKARA 834
         ¶F. 09 ANKARA 1839

    Classified By: Ambassador James F. Jeffrey, Reasons 1.4 (b,d)

    Summary
    -------

    ¶1. (C)  Reports of coup plots against PM Erdogan's
    Islamist-leaning government have been a staple of the Turkish
    media since 2007.  Despite protests by Turkey's top brass
    that there is no substance to the allegations, a growing
    percentage of the population believes that at least some
    elements within the military have been plotting to undermine
    or even overthrow the AKP-led government.  The coup
    allegations have served as fodder for the Ergenekon
    prosecution team and some of the plots have been included in
    the formal indictments against senior retired military
    officers.  The net result of these allegations has been a
    gradual erosion of the public trust toward the military.  The
    latest reports related to the "Sledgehammer" plan (ref a)
    come at a time when the government is preparing the process
    of amending the constitution to allow military personnel to
    be tried in civilian courts (ref b).  With the pro-Islamist
    media fanning the flames and the Turkish General Staff's
    consistently inadequate responses to each allegation, public
    opinion is becoming less unquestioning vis a vis the
    military; this could help strengthen AKP's position as it
    mulls steps to amend the Turkish constitution in order to
    affect a shift in the civil-military balance in its favor,
    although AKP,s own support has eroded considerably over the
    past year.  End Summary.

    Coup Chronicles: A Review
    -------------------------

    ¶2. (C) Over the course of the last two-and-a-half years, the
    Turkish military has faced a number of allegations of coup
    plotting having occurred within its ranks, especially in the
    2003 to 2004 period.  These allegations have increased in
    tempo over the last year, with the liberal daily "Taraf"
    ("Side") -- whose tagline is: "To Think is to Take Sides" --
    leading the charge in breaking many of the often-sensational
    stories that draw on leaked information from unnamed military
    or judicial sources.  (Comment: Taraf owner Basar Arslan has
    publicly dismissed claims that Taraf is secretly funded by
    the Fetullah Gulen movement. End Comment).  Paras 8-14
    outline the key allegations that have surfaced in the Turkish
    media since 2007.

    Common Threads
    --------------

    ¶3. (C) One of the common threads in this review is that the
    alleged plans are all variations on a theme: they all involve
    efforts to sow chaos or foment public opposition to the AKP
    and to create the conditions for a military intervention.
    None of the alleged plots involve a direct military takeover
    (Comment: The military's problem in such a scenario is that
    it knows its interventions and coup plots are not popular
    among the population.  The last "successful" coup -- in 1980
    -- occurred in response to a massive breakdown of public
    order as armed political, ethnic and criminal gangs engaged
    in violent attacks.  The core accusation in these current
    scenarios is the allegation that the military this time would
    foment the violence themselves, blaming radical, Islamic and
    other groups, and then step in to "restore order" after the
    government fails to do so.  End Comment.)

    ¶4. (C) Another common theme is that all the allegations put
    the military in an almost impossible position of having to
    prove a negative -- that it did not engage in the planning
    actions alleged by the media reports -- to a public, some
    parts of whom are increasingly suspicious of the military
    with each new claim.  While we may never know the extent to
    which each of these allegations are true, it is clear from
    statements by former Turkish General Staff Chief Gen. Ozkok
    that, at the very least, there was serious consideration
    given within the military in 2003 to 2004 to overthrow the

    ANKARA 00000150  002 OF 004

    AKP-led government.

    Polling Data and Net Effect Thus Far
    ------------------------------------

    ¶5. (C) The series of allegations has been eroding the
    public's confidence in the military.  While the military
    still enjoys strong support among the public -- one poll by
    Genar Polling in November 2009 indicated that 80.6 percent of
    those surveyed viewed the military as the institution that
    inspires most confidence, 15 points above the presidency,
    which came in second -- this support has slipped.  A poll
    conducted by A&G Polling in January indicated that while
    public support for the military was around 90 percent before
    the Ergenekon investigations began, public support has
    dropped to 63.4 percent.  Ipsos KMG also published a poll in
    early January indicating the trust in the military had
    declined from 85 to 90 percent before the Ergenekon
    allegations, to 73 percent in late 2009.  Another poll
    conducted in early January by Turkish polling firm MetroPoll,
    before the "Sledgehammer" story broke, found that 30 percent
    of respondents in the January poll indicated that their trust
    in the military has decreased.  55 percent of respondents
    also believed that "there is a group within the military
    which is preparing to stage a coup," a rise of 7 percent from
    July 2009 figures.  Despite the decreasing confidence in the
    military indicated by one of three respondents, 62 percent of
    respondents did not believe that the military would stage
    another coup.

    ¶6. (C) Secularists who question the motives of the AKP and
    the timing of each new coup plot allegation are convinced
    that most of the claims are a combination of fabrication and
    manipulation of actual military documents and that there is a
    systematic campaign to erode the trust of the military.  TGS
    chief Basbug has led this charge, calling the series of media
    stories an "asymmetric attack" targeting the Turkish Armed
    Forces.  Even as he denounced the media reports, however,
    Basbug has also clearly committed the military to supporting
    democracy and the rule of law and has stated that the era of
    coups in Turkey is over (ref. b).

    Comment: Stage is Set for Constitutional Reform
    --------------------------------------------- --

    ¶7. (C) With the Constitutional Court's unanimous decision to
    overturn a law extending civilian jurisdiction over military
    personnel for crimes including coup plotting (ref c), the
    government has announced that it plans to seek a referendum
    to change Turkey's constitution to affect this change.  Many
    of the other possible constitutional reforms being considered
    by the government -- such as changing the structure of the
    Constitutional Court and limiting clauses often used to
    justify the prosecution of nationalist Kurds and Islamist
    politicians -- would attract the opposition of the military
    and its political supporters.  The apparent rise in distrust
    among the Turkish populace toward the military, particularly
    after "Sledgehammer," which allegedly would have targeted
    average Turks in an arbitrary manner, could work to the AKP's
    advantage as it looks to further shift the balance of power
    in civ-mil relations through constitutional reforms, although
    AKP,s own standing is greatly diminished from only one year
    ago.

    COUP DIARIES AND ALLEGED PLOTS
    ------------------------------

    ¶8. (SBU) Excerpts of diary entries dating back to 2003 and
    2004 allegedly belonging to then-Naval Forces Commander
    Admiral Ozden Ornek were first published by the weekly
    "Nokta" in 2007 (Comment: The magazine was closed shortly
    after it published these documents.  End Comment).  The diary
    entries -- popularly known as the "Coup Diaries" -- laid out
    in detail discussions among senior military officers of steps
    the military needed to take to unseat the Islamist-leaning
    Justice and Development Party, which came to power in 2002.
    "Sarikiz" ("Blondie") was the initial coup plan developed by
    then-Jandarma Commander General Eruygur, which involved a
    coordinated effort among the military and other elements of
    Turkey's secular elite, to effect the removal of the AKP from
    power.  The plot allegedly had the support of all the other
    force commanders at the time (Land Forces Commander General
    Aytac Yalman, Air Forces Commander General Ibrahim Firtina,

    ANKARA 00000150  003 OF 004

    and Naval Forces Commander Admiral Ornek).  Then-Turkish
    General Staff (TGS) Chief General Hilmi Ozkok reportedly
    rejected the coup proposal, which led Eruygur and former
    First Army Commander General Hursuit Tolon to develop other
    plots entitled "Ayisigi" ("Moonlight") and "Yakamoz"
    ("Phosphorescence"), which provided operational details of a
    coup that would involve the removal of General Ozkok and the
    restructuring of the military.  Other related plans related
    to the plot with code names "Eldiven" ("Glove") and
    "Demiryumruk" ("Iron Fist") reportedly provided more details
    about steps to be taken in the aftermath of a successful coup.

    ¶9. (SBU) These plots were included in the Ergenekon
    prosecutors' second indictment in March 2009, and provided
    the legal basis for the detention of retired generals Eruygur
    and Tolon (who were initially arrested in July 2008 and were
    detained without formal charges until the release of the
    indictment).  Eruygur has been identified as the alleged head
    of Ergenekon while Tolon is considered a leading member.
    Retired force commanders Firtina, Ornek, and Yalman were
    interviewed by Ergenekon prosecutors in early December 2009,
    but have not been charged; Firtina publicly denied
    involvement in any coup plots.  According to press accounts,
    General Ozkok acknowledged during testimony to Ergenekon
    prosecutors in April 2009 that most of the contents of the
    "coup diaries" were true and that he was aware of plans to
    overthrow the government among elements within the military
    but did not have hard evidence to move against the plotters.

    "KAFES" (OPERATION CAGE)
    ------------------------

    ¶10. (SBU) This plot involved senior navy flag officers and
    was uncovered during the April 2009 search of the home of
    retired Navy Lieutenant Commander Levent Bektas, an Ergenekon
    suspect, and was revealed by Taraf in November 2009.  CDs
    found in Bektas's home reportedly revealed a plot drafted in
    March 2009 headed by then-Sea Area North Commander Vice
    Admiral Feyyaz Ogutcu (now retired) and current Sea Area
    South Commander Kadir Sardic.  The plot included plans to
    assassinate prominent non-Muslim figures and blame these
    attacks on the AKP in order to increase foreign and domestic
    pressure for the AKP to step down.  Media reports indicated
    that the plan included setting off a bomb planted at the
    submarine exhibit at the Rahmi Koc Museum in Istanbul and
    using women to obtain information from other navy officers
    and entrap them into supporting Ergenekon.  Bektas has been
    under arrest as part of the Ergenekon probe, as well as
    several active duty officers, including Lt. Col. Halil
    Ozsarac, and colonels Levent Gulmen and Mucahit Erakyol.
    Thus far, neither Ogutcu or Sardic has been questioned about
    this plot.

    ¶11. (SBU) Taraf reporter Mehmet Baransu, who broke the news
    about "Kafes," received an award from the Turkish Journalists
    Association for his "Kafes" reporting, but was also
    investigated for violating the confidentiality of an ongoing
    criminal investigation.  While those charges have been
    dropped, there is an ongoing case against Baransu and Taraf
    manager Adnan Demir for "openly insulting the military
    institution of the state," in violation of Section 301 of the
    Turkish Penal Code.

    ACTION PLAN AGAINST FUNDAMENTALISM (refs d and e)
    --------------------------------------------- ----

    ¶12. (SBU) Photocopies of the alleged "Action Plan Against
    Fundamentalism" were published by Taraf as a front-page story
    in June 2009.  The plan outlined a psychological operations
    campaign to discredit the ruling Justice and Development
    Party (AKP) as well as other "sources of fundamentalism,"
    including the Fetullah Gulen movement.  The action plan was
    allegedly drafted by Naval Infantry Colonel Dursun Cicek in
    2009 under orders of then-Deputy CHOD Igsiz, with the
    knowledge and tacit approval of General Basbug himself.  The
    TGS denied the existence of such a plan, with General Basbug
    dismissing the photocopied documents as "a piece of paper."
    The allegation came roaring back to life in November 2009
    when Taraf claimed that it had received -- from an anonymous
    military officer -- the original copy of the plan with
    Cicek's "wet" signature.  Cicek was detained in July 2009 for
    his role in drafting the plan, but was released due to lack
    of evidence.  He was again detained and interviewed by

    ANKARA 00000150  004 OF 004

    prosecutors in November 2009, but was again released without
    charges.

    ASSASSINATION PLOT AGAINST DEPUTY PM (ref f)
    --------------------------------------------

    ¶13. (SBU) On December 19, two active duty Turkish special
    forces officers were arrested by the police near the
    residence of Deputy Prime Minister Bulent Arinc.  This led to
    allegations that the military was planning to assassinate
    Arinc.  As a result, the civilian judiciary issued a court
    order to search the offices of the officers which are located
    at the TGS Special Forces Mobilization Command.  After
    initial refusal by the military to allow a broader search of
    the premises, CHOD Basbug, along with Land Forces Commander
    (and likely successor to Basbug as CHOD in August 2010)
    General Kosaner, met with PM Erdogan on December 26.
    Following this meeting, a second search warrant was issued to
    allow a judge to review the classified documents stored at
    the Mobilization Command headquarters.  These searches are
    ongoing, but to date, the investigators have not announced
    any discovery of evidence that would support the claims of an
    assassination plot against Arinc.

    "BALYOZ" (SLEDGEHAMMER) (ref a)
    -------------------------------

    ¶14. (SBU) "Sledgehammer," the latest alleged plot, was
    allegedly drafted in 2003 by the Turkish First Army, under
    its then-commander Gen. Cetin Dogan.  The plan, which has
    been denied by both the military and retired General Dogan,
    involved false-flag bombing of mosques and efforts to provoke
    a military crisis with Greece in order to create the
    conditions for a military intervention.  The plan, as
    revealed by "Taraf" on January 20 -- a day before the
    Constitutional Court's decision overturning the law allowing
    civilian jurisdiction over certain offenses committed by the
    military -- allegedly included lists of names of politicians
    and journalists to be arrested, as well as names of
    politicians who would serve in a new government after the
    removal of the AKP.
    Jeffrey

               "Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.s
    gov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turkey"

`