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### Viewing cable 07PARIS2440, FRENCH MFA OFFICIAL SHARES VIEWS ON IRAN/IRAQ

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Reference ID | Date | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | ---
07PARIS2440 | 2007-06-07 17:05 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Paris

`

    VZCZCXYZ0015
    OO RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHFRA #2440 1581725
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH ZUI RUEWMCE1074 1581702
    O 071725Z JUN 07
    FM AMEMBASSY PARIS
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0000
    INFO ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE
    EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC
    RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L PARIS 002440

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 6/7/2017
    TAGS: PREL FR IR IZ PGOV
    SUBJECT: FRENCH MFA OFFICIAL SHARES VIEWS ON IRAN/IRAQ

    CLASSIFIED BY: POLITICAL MINISTER-COUNSELOR JOSIAH ROSENBLATT,
    REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).

    ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: FRANCK GELLET, FRENCH DAS-EQUIVALENT FOR THE
    PAGE 02 RUEHFRA2440 C O N F I D E N T I A L PARIS 002440
    PERSIAN GULF, SHARED HIS VIEWS ON IRAN AND IRAQ ON JUNE 7.
    GELLET ASSESSED THAT THE IRANIANS ARE OVERCONFIDENT AND
    VULNERABLE TO A BAN ON INTERNATIONAL AIR TRAVEL.  HIS
    ASSESSMENT OF IRAQ WAS NOTABLY BLEAK.  END SUMMARY.

    ¶2. (C) OVER LUNCH JUNE 7, THE MFAS DAS-EQUIVALENT FOR THE
    PERSIAN GULF, FRANCK GELLET, SHARED HIS VIEWS ON IRAN AND
    IRAQ.  HAVING RECENTLY RETURNED FROM A 15-DAY TRIP TO IRAN,
    GELLET SAID THAT HIS MOST SERIOUS AND USEFUL INTERLOCUTOR WAS
    FORMER FOREIGN MINISTER VELAYATI, WHOM HE DESCRIBED AS BEING
    "LESS ROMANTIC" THAN THE REGIME'S OTHER FOREIGN POLICY
    HEAVYWEIGHTS.  GELLET SAID THAT VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE IRANIAN
    OFFICIALS HE MET OVERESTIMATED THE REGIME'S STRENGTH, BOTH ON
    THE REGIONAL AND THE INTERNATIONAL STAGE.  "THE IRANIANS ARE
    CONVINCED THAT NO ONE -- INCLUDING THE UNITED STATES -- CAN
    TOUCH THEM ECONOMICALLY OR MILITARILY.  THEY SIMPLY CAN'T
    IMAGINE THAT THE U.S. HAS THE CAPACITY AND THE POLITICAL WILL
    TO LAUNCH A MILITARY STRIKE AGAINST THEM AT A TIME WHEN THE
    U.S. MILITARY APPEARS TO BE BOGGED DOWN IN IRAQ," SAID
    GELLET.

    PAGE 03 RUEHFRA2440 C O N F I D E N T I A L PARIS 002440

    ¶3. (C) GELLET SAID HIS OWN VIEW (WHICH, HE CAUTIONED, IS NOT
    SHARED BY EVERYONE AT THE MFA), IS THAT IF THE EUROPEANS
    REALLY WANT TO AVOID A MILITARY CONFRONTATION BETWEEN THE
    U.S. AND IRAN THEN THEY NEED TO SHOW THE IRANIANS THEY ARE
    SERIOUS ABOUT ECONOMIC SANCTIONS.  "THE IRANIANS WILL NEVER
    BLINK UNTIL THEY FEEL THAT THE REGIME'S SURVIVAL IS AT
    STAKE," SAID GELLET.  HE SUGGESTED THAT -- IN ADDITION TO A
    FURTHER SANCTIONS ON THE BANKING SECTOR, A FULL ARMS EMBARGO,
    AND A CUT IN EXPORT CREDITS -- THE IRANIANS MIGHT BE
    VULNERABLE TO AN EMBARGO OF REFINED PETROLEUM PRODUCTS.  IN
    ADDITION, HE SUGGESTED THAT WE NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE DRAMATIC
    ISOLATING EFFECT THAT A BAN ON INTERNATIONAL AIR TRAVEL TO
    AND FROM IRAN WOULD HAVE.  GELLET NOTED THAT THESE WERE JUST
    HIS PERSONAL VIEWS, AND SAID THAT HE HAS NOT YET RECEIVED ANY
    GUIDANCE FROM THE NEW PRESIDENCY ON IRAN SANCTIONS.  HE
    OBSERVED THAT PRESIDENT SARKOZY TOOK A HARD LINE AGAINST THE
    IRANIAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM DURING HIS ELECTION CAMPAIGN, BUT
    SAID IT REMAINED TO BE SEEN WHAT THAT WOULD TRANSLATE INTO IN
    POLICY TERMS.

    PAGE 04 RUEHFRA2440 C O N F I D E N T I A L PARIS 002440

    ¶4. (C) GELLET, WHO SERVED FOR NEARLY THREE YEARS AT THE
    FRENCH EMBASSY IN BAGHDAD BEFORE ASSUMING HIS CURRENT
    POSITION, HAD A PARTICULARLY GRIM VIEW OF IRAQ.  "WE DON'T
    HAVE THE SLIGHTEST HOPE IT CAN BE SALVAGED -- IT'S LOST," HE
    SAID.  HE PREDICTED THAT IRAQ WILL DESCEND INTO FULL-SCALE
    CIVIL WAR WHETHER OR NOT MNF-I REMAINS.  ON THE OTHER HAND,
    HE PREDICTED THAT IF THE COALITION WERE TO WITHDRAW THERE
    WOULD BE AN IMMEDIATE AND HORRIFIC SPIKE IN THE LEVEL OF
    VIOLENCE.  "YOUR DEPARTURE WOULD BE SEEN EVERYWHERE AS A SIGN
    THAT IT'S TIME FOR THE GLOVES TO COME OFF," HE SAID.  HE
    FURTHER PREDICTED THAT, IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE COALITION'S
    DEPARTURE (WHENEVER THAT OCCURS), THE ENSUING CONFLICT WOULD
    LAST MANY YEARS UNTIL IRAQ'S SUNNIS AND SHIITES (AND THEIR
    RESPECTIVE PATRONS) WERE EXHAUSTED.  AS FOR THE KURDS, GELLET
    SAID THEY SERIOUSLY UNDERESTIMATED THE RISK THAT THEY WOULD
    BE ANNIHILATED DURING THE COURSE OF A CIVIL WAR THAT WOULD
    LIKELY PULL IN MOST OF IRAQ'S NEIGHBORS, INCLUDING TURKEY.

    ¶5. (C) NOTWITHSTANDING HIS BLEAK ANALYSIS, GELLET ENCOURAGED

    PAGE 05 RUEHFRA2440 C O N F I D E N T I A L PARIS 002440
    THE U.S. TO CONTINUE ITS EFFORTS TO PROMOTE RECONCILIATION.
    HE NOTED THAT ONE COMPLAINT HE OFTEN HEARD FROM HIS SUNNI
    CONTACTS WAS THAT THEY RECEIVED CONFLICTING MESSAGES FROM THE
    VARIOUS USG AGENCIES ON THE GROUND IN IRAQ, AND WERE NEVER
    SURE WHICH OF THEM HAD THE ULTIMATE DECISION-MAKING
    AUTHORITY.  GELLET FINISHED BY WARNING THAT OUR TRIBAL ALLIES
    IN ANBAR PROVINCE WOULD TURN ON US WHENEVER IT SUITED THEIR
    INTERESTS TO DO SO.

    PLEASE VISIT PARIS' CLASSIFIED WEBSITE AT:
    HTTP://WWW.STATE.SGOV.GOV/P/EUR/PARIS/INDEX.C FM

    STAPLETON

`