Currently released so far... 243 / 251,287

### Articles

Brazil

### Browse by release date

2010/11

### Browse by creation date

66 72 79 86 89 90 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
1966/12
1972/02
1979/08
1986/05
1989/12
1990/01
2004/01 2004/12
2005/03 2005/05 2005/06 2005/12
2006/04 2006/08 2006/12
2007/01 2007/02 2007/03 2007/04 2007/05 2007/06 2007/07 2007/08 2007/09 2007/11 2007/12
2008/01 2008/03 2008/04 2008/05 2008/07 2008/08 2008/09 2008/10 2008/12
2009/01 2009/02 2009/03 2009/04 2009/05 2009/06 2009/07 2009/08 2009/09 2009/10 2009/11 2009/12
2010/01 2010/02

### Browse by origin

A B C D H I J K L M P R S T U
Embassy Ashgabat Embassy Ankara Embassy Amman Embassy Abu Dhabi
Embassy Buenos Aires Embassy Brasilia Embassy Bishkek Embassy Berlin Embassy Beirut Embassy Beijing Embassy Baku Embassy Baghdad
Embassy Cairo Consulate Cape Town
Embassy Doha Embassy Damascus Consulate Dubai
Embassy Harare
Iran RPO Dubai Consulate Istanbul
Consulate Jeddah
Embassy Kuwait Embassy Kabul
Embassy London
Embassy Muscat Embassy Moscow Embassy Manama Embassy Madrid Consulate Munich
Embassy Prague Embassy Paris Embassy Panama
Embassy Rome Embassy Riyadh
Secretary of State Embassy Sanaa Consulate Sao Paulo
Embassy Tripoli Embassy Tel Aviv Embassy Tehran Embassy Tegucigalpa
USEU Brussels UNVIE

### Browse by tag

A B C E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U X Y Z
AE ASEC AM AF AR AU AORC AJ AG
BA BR BH BY BU
CVIS CH CASC CF COUNTERTERRORISM CD CV
ETRD ECON ELAB EFIN ENRG EG ETTC EPET EINV EFIS EXTERNAL EAID EUN EU ECUN EAIR EZ EAGR ELTN ECPS
FR
GM GG GR GOI GE GA
HO
IR IAEA IS IZ INRB IN IRAJ IQ IT
JO JA
KNNP KHLS KJUS KDEM KSPR KPKO KUNR KWBG KWMN KPAL KCRM KU KG KHIV KPRP KZ KN KTFN KGHG KSCA KMDR KPAO KCOR KACT KIRF KS KTIA KISL
LE LY LG
MNUC MPOS MARR MU MASS MOPS MCAP MOPPS MK MAR MTCRE MY ML MR
NATO NG
OPDC OEXC OIIP OVIP OPRC OTR OTRA
PGOV PREL PARM PTER PINR PHUM PINS PREF PM PEPR PROP PK PBIO PA PBTS PECON POLITICAL PARTIES
QA
RU RS RW
SA SYR SY SO SU SF SCUL SM SNAR SOCI SENV SP SG
TRGY TU TI TX TC TSPA
US UZ UE UK UNESCO UP UNSC UV
XF XA
YM
ZP ZR ZF ZI

### Browse by classification

CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN SECRET SECRET//NOFORN UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

### Community resources

Follow us on Twitter Check our Reddit Twitter this Digg this page

### Viewing cable 09ISTANBUL336, C) IRAN: A XXXXX CONTACT SHARES VIEWS FROM A RAFSANJANI BUSINESS ALLY ON KHAMENEI'S CANCER AND RAFSANJANI'S NEXT STEPS

If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs
Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:

- The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
- The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
- The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.

To understand the justification used for the classification of each cable, please use this WikiSource article as reference.
Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #09ISTANBUL336.
Help us extend and defend this work

Reference ID | Date | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | ---
09ISTANBUL336 | 2009-08-28 14:02 | CONFIDENTIAL | Consulate Istanbul

`

    VZCZCXRO3507
    PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHDIR RUEHKUK RUEHTRO
    DE RUEHIT #0336/01 2401409
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 281409Z AUG 09
    FM AMCONSUL ISTANBUL
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9152
    INFO RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ISTANBUL 000336

    SIPDIS

    LONDON FOR MURRAY; BERLIN FOR ROSENSTOCK-STILLER; BAKU FOR
    HAUGEN; ASHGABAT FOR TANGBORN; BAGHDAD FOR POPAL; DUBAI FOR
    IRPO

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/28/2025
    TAGS: PGOV PREL PINS ECON ETRD IR TU
    SUBJECT: (C) IRAN: A XXXXX CONTACT SHARES VIEWS FROM A RAFSANJANI BUSINESS ALLY ON KHAMENEI'S CANCER AND RAFSANJANI'S NEXT STEPS

    Classified By: Consulate General Istanbul Deputy Principal Officer Win Dayton; Reason 1.5 (d).

    ¶1. (C) Summary: A XXXXXXXXXXXX businessman who represents the XXXXXXXXXXXX company XXXXXXXXXXXX shared with us a discussion he recently had with a XXXXXXXXXXXX he described as close to Rafsanjani. The XXXXXXXXXXXX claimed Rafsanjani told him Supreme Leader Khamenei has terminal leukemia and is expected to die in months. As a result, Rafsanjani decided to stop challenging Khamenei, and instead is preparing the ground to have himself appointed Khamenei's successor. If he succeeds he will dismiss Ahmadinejad and call for XXXXXXXa new election, according to the XXXXXXXXXXX. The XXXXXXXXXXXX told our contact there was a growing “invisible general strike” in Iran, whereby hundreds of thousands of workers were going to work but not really working, to show their dismay at the election results. XXXXXXXXXXXX End Summary.

    ¶2. (C) We met XXXXXXXXXXX with XXXXXXXXXXXX. XXXXXXXXXXXX recently returned from meetings in Tehran with XXXXXXXXXXXX executives, including a Board of Directors member named XXXXXXXXXXXX.

    ¶3. (C) According to XXXXXXXXXXXX, XXXXXXXXXXXX is a strong Mousavi supporter who expected to be a potential candidate for Minister of Industry in a Mousavi government. XXXXXXXXXXX said that XXXXXXXXXXXX explicitly described the June 12 election results as massive fraud, a view he said was shared by almost all business executives and company directors throughout Iran. He claimed the fraud was perpetrated by “six or seven Sepah (IRGC) Generals” who were afraid the IRGC would be sidelined if Mousavi won. XXXXXXXXXXXX asserted to XXXXXXXXXXXX that he personally knew the director of information technology for the Interior Ministry's election supervision office. XXXXXXXXXXXX described this official as being involved in tabulating the vote count electronically XXXXXXXXXXXX. XXXXXXXXXXXX told XXXXXXXXXXXX that this official was promptly arrested by IRGC security agents, jailed, and eventually executed. According to XXXXXXXXXXXX, the real tabulation results showed Mousavi winning 16 million votes in the first round, with Karroubi coming in second place and Ahmadinejad lagging in third. (Comment: These figures track with the supposedly genuine vote tally figures circulated after the election by pro-Mousavi supporters.)

    ¶4. (C) Khamenei has cancer: XXXXXXXXXXXX told XXXXXXXXXXXX that Rafsanjani remains vehemently opposed to Ahmadinejad but is biding his time because of a serious health crisis affecting Supreme Leader Khamenei: a terminal case of “blood cancer” (leukemia). XXXXXXXXXXXX told XXXXXXXXXXXX that he heard from Rafsanjani that Khamenei is likely to die within a matter of months. As a result, Rafsanjani has stopped campaigning within the Assembly of Experts to challenge Khamenei, and now is focused on “letting nature take its course.” Following the Supreme Leader's passing, Rafsanjani will try to mobilize the Assembly of Experts to appoint him as the new Supreme Leader. If he is successful – though clearly he would face stiff opposition from Ahmadinejad allies in that Assembly – he would then invite Ahmadinejad to resign and call a new election. Because Rafsanjani, Mousavi, and their close supports are anticipating this scenario, they are currently “laying low.” XXXXXXXXXXXX told XXXXXXXXXXXX that he did not expect to see opposition leaders calling for any further demonstrations or provocative activities in coming months that might undercut Rafsanjani's efforts to position himself as a future Supreme Leader.

    ¶5. (C) “Invisible” general strike: XXXXXXXXXXXX said XXXXXXXXXXXX told him that a growing portion of the Iranian workforce was ISTANBUL 00000336 002 OF 003 engaged in an “invisible general strike” against the regime to protest the contested election result. He claimed that hundreds of thousands of Iranian workers in all sectors (public and private) throughout the country had superficially resumed their pre-elections routines and habits. They were going to work every day, but once at work they were doing nothing or working at a bare minimum pace. The realization that such an “invisible strike” could hurt the regime almost as much as an overt general strike, but without the same risks, was spreading. XXXXXXXXXXXX predicted to XXXXXXXXXXXX that Iran's manufacturing and industrial production levels, already strained, are starting to suffer even more precipitously as this effort becomes more widespread. Seeking Commercial Advice ————————

    ¶6. (C) XXXXXXXXXXX

    ¶7. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX

    ¶8. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX

    Comment
    ——

    ¶9. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX has proved to be a credible interlocutor in the past and XXXXXXXXXXXX favorably predisposed to the United States. This is the first time he shared observations from the XXXXXXXXXXXX. We cannot independently assess the veracity of that information, but we note that rumors have long circulated that Supreme Leader Khamenei has cancer and is in rapidly declining health. If true, Khamenei's departure would indeed offer Rafsanjani a propitious opportunity to exert control over the appointment of a successor, though such an event would likely precipitate factional infighting extending well beyond the closed-door confines of the Assembly of Experts. That Rafsanjani would be able to secure his own appointment as Iran's next Supreme

    ISTANBUL 00000336 003 OF 003

    Leader in the event of Khamenei's near-term death is far from certain, and indeed is only one of many potential succession scenarios that could unfold. The observation about an “invisible general strike” is noteworthy, but we have not heard similar descriptions from other contacts; we will query several Iran-based contacts on it.

    ¶10. (C) As a businessman, XXXXXXXXXXXX's primary motivation in pursuing deals with Iranian companies is, of course, the profit motive. But XXXXXXXXXXX, he is a true believer in the idea that significantly expanding western commercial relations with Iran would raise pressure on Iranian companies (and indirectly the Iranian government) to reform their economic behavior and modernize the way they do business, resulting – potentially – in a more moderately-behaved Iran. From our perspective such a linkage is unlikely in the current political climate in Iran. XXXXXXXXXXXX.
    WIENER

`