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CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN SECRET SECRET//NOFORN UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

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### Viewing cable 08CAIRO1067, CODEL BAIRD MEETS WITH EGYPTIAN LEADERS ON MARGINS

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Reference ID | Date | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | ---
08CAIRO1067 | 2008-05-27 11:11 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Cairo

`

    VZCZCXRO3741
    PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHDIR RUEHIHL RUEHKUK RUEHROV
    DE RUEHEG #1067/01 1481153
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 271153Z MAY 08
    FM AMEMBASSY CAIRO
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9342
    INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE
    RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE
    RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 001067

    SIPDIS

    DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/ELA, H

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/20/2018
    TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON EG
    SUBJECT: CODEL BAIRD MEETS WITH EGYPTIAN LEADERS ON MARGINS
    OF WEF

    Classified by DCM Stuart Jones for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

    ¶1. (C) Summary: Codel Baird discussed Egyptian and regional
    issues with Egypt's political and business leaders on the
    margins of the May 18 - 20 World Economic Forum (WEF) in
    Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt.  President Mubarak, Intelligence
    Chief Omar Soliman, and presidential son Gamal Mubarak
    focused on the need for deep engagement to resolve the
    Israeli/Palestinian crisis and to hinder Iran's growing
    influence in the region.  On Iraq, Mubarak said "you cannot
    leave" but advised strengthening the military and allowing a
    "fair" dictator to come to power via a coup.  "Forget
    democracy," he opined, "the Iraqis are too tough by nature."
     On the economic side, Egypt's business leaders regretted the
    lack of a U.S.-Egypt free trade agreement and asked the U.S.
    to push Egypt harder on good governance and democratic
    reform.  Codel Baird consisted of Representatives Brian Baird
    (D-WA), Christopher Shays (R-CT), Peter DeFazio (D-OR), Jeff
    Fortenberry (R-NE), and Jim Cooper (D-TN); Representative
    Jane Harman (D-CA) joined the codel briefly on May 18.  End
    summary.

    President Mubarak
    -----------------

    ¶2. (C) The codel began by thanking Mubarak for his positive
    leadership on regional issues.  Mubarak said that he had
    advised Vice President Cheney and other U.S. officials not to
    invade Iraq and that "no one listened," but that now "it
    would be a mistake" to withdraw forces immediately because it
    would further open the door for Iran.  Asked about U.S.-Egypt
    relations, Mubarak confirmed that "we have very good
    relations with the U.S.," but "your administration is not
    well-informed."  However, "I am patient by nature," he said,
    in apparent reference to U.S. criticisms over human rights
    and democratization.   Congressman Shays encouraged Mubarak
    to engage with Iraq as much as possible and asked if Egypt
    would send an ambassador, to which Mubarak replied "no, I
    cannot do it.  When there is stability I am willing, but I
    cannot force civilians to go."

    ¶3. (C) Asked about Egypt's reaction if Iran developed nuclear
    weapons capability, Mubarak said that none will accept a
    nuclear Iran, "we are all terrified."  Mubarak said that when
    he spoke with former Iranian President Khatami he told him to
    tell current President Ahmedinejad "not to provoke the
    Americans" on the nuclear issue so that the U.S. is not
    forced to strike.  Mubarak said that Egypt might be forced to
    begin its own nuclear weapons program if Iran succeeds in
    those efforts.

    ¶4. (C) Asked about whether the U.S. should set a timeline for
    withdrawal from Iraq, Mubarak said "you cannot leave" because
    "you would leave Iran in control."  Mubarak explained his
    recipe for a way forward: "strengthen the armed forces, relax
    your hold, and then you will have a coup.  Then we will have
    a dictator, but a fair one.  Forget democracy, the Iraqis are
    by their nature too tough."

    Omar Soliman
    ------------

    ¶5. (C) Egyptian General Intelligence Service (EGIS) chief
    Omar Soliman gave the codel an expansive evaluation of the
    key issues in the region.  He focused on Iran's growing
    influence in Iraq, with Hamas, with Hizballah in Lebanon, and
    with Shia communities in the Gulf.  To solve regional
    problems Egypt is working on three tracks - Palestine,
    Lebanon, and Iraq.

    ¶6. (C) Egypt hopes to achieve something soon on the
    Palestinian track, he said, but neither side is ready to stop
    the vicious circle of violence, although most on both sides
    want "quiet."  Soliman's job now, he said, is to bridge the
    gaps on specific issues like border crossings, prisoner
    exchange, and bringing Hamas and the PA back together.  He
    hoped to see an agreement on borders for a Palestinian state
    by the end of 2008, and noted that as a practical matter very
    few Palestinian refugees would seek right of return.

    ¶7. (C) On Lebanon, speaking a week before the Doha agreement
    was penned, Soliman said the three problems are Syria's large
    influence, lack of power of the majority over militia forces,
    and weak Arab support for the government.  Syria is seeking a
    deal with Israel and the U.S. over returning the Golan and
    canceling the Hariri tribunal to lessen its meddling and
    Lebanon needs a strong, nationalist army.  Soliman bemoaned
    that the Arab states have too poor relations with Syria to

    CAIRO 00001067  002 OF 002

    push them effectively.

    ¶8. (C) On Iraq, Egypt meets regularly with Jordan, Saudi
    Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, and Turkey to discuss reducing Iranian
    influence.  The GOI must understand it has support from the
    Arabs and the U.S., not just Iran, he said.  Soliman
    advocated making Iran suffer economically to be "too busy
    with its people" to make problems in Iraq.  Reducing Iranian
    influence will help the Iraqi government become one, and not
    a competition between Sunni and Shi'a. he said.

    ¶9. (C) Asked about the consequences of any U.S. strike on
    Iranian nuclear capabilities, Soliman said such an attack
    would not destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities and would only
    unite Iranians with their leadership and against the U.S.  He
    repeated the need to make Iran "busy with its people" by
    effective sanctions, citing the successful example of Libya.
    Asked about Sudan, he said that Egypt is still working to
    make north-south unity attractive, and to encourage talks
    between the GOS and rebels and between Bashir and Deby.

    ¶10. (C) Asked what it means when Arabs say that the U.S.
    "should listen to us," Soliman gave the example that
    President Mubarak warned Vice President Cheney about the
    consequences of the U.S. invading Iraq.  Additionally, "your
    unilateral positions on economic aid are difficult."
    However, Soliman emphasized that Egypt is keen to continue to
    have a "very close" relationship with the U.S.

    Gamal Mubarak
    -------------

    ¶11. (C) Gamal opined that the "battle lines are clearer for
    Egypt than ever before" on regional issues.  The region "will
    not realize its full potential as long as geopolitical
    problems continue," he said.  With the Israeli/Palestinian
    problem in particular, "we are racing against time."  Gamal
    advocated close engagement by the U.S., Egypt, and other
    countries (NFI) in order to make practical improvements in
    the every day lives of Palestinians and develop a framework
    for a final deal, with borders as the key issue.  Other
    regional issues such as Iran and Lebanon are "much more
    complicated," he said; "the picture is not that rosy."

    ¶12. (C) Representative Baird raised the issue of USAID
    efforts to assist conservation of Red Sea reefs, which Gamal
    agreed was an important issue.  Representative Shays asked
    Gamal's opinion of Syria President Bashar Al Assad, to which
    Gamal replied that "he understands the world better than his
    father," but that he is worried that opening up politically
    or economically could result in a loss of control.

    ¶13. (C) Representative Harman asked for Egypt to do more to
    fight smuggling to Gaza through tunnels, perhaps by setting
    up roadblocks a few miles before the border to intercept
    contraband.  Gamal said that the border is a "shared concern"
    and Egypt is doing what it can to address smuggling.

    ¶14. (C) Representative Fortenberry asked about how to counter
    a developing Iranian nuclear program.  Egypt and Saudi
    Arabia, as well as Jordan, are the "heavyweights" that can
    counter Iran, Gamal said, but he advocated movement on the
    Israeli/Palestinian track to remove a prime issue that Iran
    can use as a pretext.

    American Chamber of Commerce in Egypt
    -------------------------------------

    ¶15. (SBU) The AmCham group led by President Omar Mohanna
    (Suez Cement) lamented that the lack of a U.S.-Egypt FTA
    continues to push Egypt's trade towards Europe and away from
    the U.S.  They praised the Qualified Industrial Zones (QIZ)
    program and advocated expanding it to upper Egypt, though
    they acknowledged that increasing Egyptian textile exports to
    the U.S. would be a sensitive issue in the U.S. textile
    lobby.  Karim Ramadan (Microsoft) praised the historic role
    of USAID in Egypt and asked that it continue with a focus on
    education and health, areas in particular need of development
    in Egypt.
    SCOBEY

`