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CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN SECRET SECRET//NOFORN UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

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### Viewing cable 09PARIS1473, SCENESETTER FOR YOUR VISIT TO PARIS -- NOVEMBER 8,

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Reference ID | Date | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | ---
09PARIS1473 | 2009-11-03 11:11 | SECRET//NOFORN | Embassy Paris

`

    VZCZCXRO7742
    PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSL
    DE RUEHFR #1473/01 3071139
    ZNY SSSSS ZZH
    P 031139Z NOV 09
    FM AMEMBASSY PARIS
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7468
    INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

` `

    S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 PARIS 001473

    NOFORN
    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2019
    TAGS: PREL NATO PARM MOPS SENV KGHG AF FR RU PK
    IR, GV, SG
    SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR YOUR VISIT TO PARIS -- NOVEMBER 8,
    2009

    PARIS 00001473  001.3 OF 004

    Classified By: Classified By: Ambassador Charles H. Rivkin, for reasons
    1.4(b) and (d).

    ¶1.  (S/NF)  SUMMARY.  Madam Secretary, your Paris Embassy and
    the French are eager to welcome you to
    France.  FM Kouchner quickly invited you to lunch or a
    meeting on Sunday, which is not a usual practice.
    He looks forward to talking with you about key issues,
    including Afghanistan, Iran, and relations with Russia.
    Kouchner recently visited Afghanistan, and he will
    undoubtedly be interested in hearing your insights
    about recent developments there and your views on Pakistan.
    France is our strongest ally in pursuing a
    dual track policy with Iran, and has been helpful in rallying
    Europe to a more clear-eyed assessment of Iran's
    nuclear ambitions.  Paris welcomed the U.S. "reset" with
    Russia and views Moscow as a strategic partner
    that cannot be ignored.  End Summary.

    --------------------
    SARKOZY AND KOUCHNER
    --------------------

    ¶2.  (S/NF) FM Kouchner, coming from the opposition Socialist
    Party, is regularly polled as one of the
    most popular French politicians and is a high-profile example
    of Sarkozy's successful policy of outreach to
    the leaders of other political parties.  He has a solid
    working relationship with the demanding French President.
    Kouchner has also carved out specific areas where he has
    largely free rein and which play to his strengths and
    previous experience, including in humanitarian affairs, the
    Balkans, and democratization efforts.  Despite these
    positives, we have occasionally witnessed lapses in
    communication between the two offices due to Sarkozy's
    tendency to seize the initiative and "speak first, consult
    later" and his penchant for proposing high-level
    summits to cut through bureaucratic red tape.

    ¶3.  (S/NF) Both Sarkozy and Kouchner are committed to a
    strong Europe with a strong transatlantic
    relationship with the U.S.  Both see Europe as our closest,
    most natural partner in fighting terrorism
    in Afghanistan and piracy on the high seas, or promoting
    peace as part of the Middle East Peace process
    quartet, fighting Iran's nuclear weapons ambitions, and in
    stabilizing the Balkans.  Likewise, they view France,
    and neighboring Germany, as the natural leaders of Europe.
    Kouchner and Sarkozy both have a pragmatic approach to
    problems, characterized by a high degree of "hands on"
    personal involvement in the issues that interest them.
    Your visit will give FM Kouchner an opportunity to showcase
    his close ties to you and to the Obama
    administration, vindicating France's unabashed "pro-American"
    stance, which is a significant reversal
    from the Chirac years when France defined its power more in
    opposition to, rather than collaboration with, the
    United States.

    -------------------------------------------
    AFGHANISTAN: SAME GOALS, LIMITED RESOURCES
    -------------------------------------------

    ¶4.  (C/NF) FM Kouchner was in Afghanistan on October 17-18 on
    a "purely political" trip designed to consult
    with the main presidential candidates and to move the
    electoral process forward.  He cooperated closely
    with Senator Kerry to send a combined message of support for
    the acceptance of a second round of voting.
    Afghanistan remains a high foreign policy priority for the
    French government, but they have difficulty
    translating their interest into additional concrete military
    and civilian support.  French government
    officials, including both President Sarkozy and FM Kouchner,
    have long advocated that "there is no
    purely military solution" to Afghanistan.  When it comes to
    putting resources behind the statement,
    however, the French government has limited options, due to
    political maneuvering and real economic
    constraints.  As a sop to his own party in exchange for
    support for French reintegration into NATO this
    April, Sarkozy has publicly and repeatedly promised "not to
    send one extra soldier" to fight an
    unpopular war in Afghanistan.  This is now a political line
    French leaders will not cross, although their
    military has privately expressed both the will and the
    capacity for further contributions.  To
    compensate, the GOF is currently shifting some of its troops
    from a security posture in Kabul

    PARIS 00001473  002.2 OF 004

    to more active combat roles in the east, where the bulk of
    their 3,000 troops are now located.  In March,
    President Sarkozy created France's first
    politically-appointed Special Representative to Afghanistan
    and Pakistan,
    a post now held by Sarkozy crony UMP deputy Thierry Mariani.
    Kouchner fought this appointment
    in favor of a career diplomat because political appointments
    in the French parliamentary system
    are limited to six months in length, limiting the
    effectiveness of the position as it currently
    functions.

    ¶5.  (C/NF)  There is great interest, particularly within the
    MFA and from Kouchner personally,
    to increase French civilian development assistance to
    Afghanistan, with a focus on raising the salaries
    of Afghan police and other security forces.  However, these
    goals are tempered by very limited
    resources.  After a battle with the Finance Ministry, the MFA
    succeeded in restoring French
    civilian assistance to Afghanistan to previous modest levels
    of 40 million euros (58.4 million U.S. dollars)
    after budget cuts threatened to limit French assistance to
    only 10 million Euros this year (about 14.6 million U.S.
    dollars).  One additional area for growth is the deployment
    by December 1 of the bulk of the 150 French gendarmes
    who make up part of the European Gendarmerie Force for police
    training.  They will be joined soon by Italian
    carabinieri and possibly small contributions from other
    countries in the coming year.  President Sarkozy is
    expected to finally take a long-delayed trip to the region
    next spring.

    ¶6.  (C/NF) In September, the French President joined his
    German and UK counterparts to propose a conference on
    Afghanistan by the end of the year.  Kouchner wanted to bring
    other Foreign Ministers to Paris to meet you to
    pursue this European goal.  French officials have since
    stated that if the security situation allows, they would
    like the conference to take place in Kabul as soon as
    possible, with a possible second session taking place
    later, after the Afghan government is better able to
    prioritize its work plan and strategy.

    --------------------------------------
    PAKISTAN: COIN AND CIVILIAN LOANS
    --------------------------------------

    ¶7.  (C/NF)  On Pakistan, the French are relative newcomers
    who have requested close cooperation with the UK and United
    States, particularly in areas of counter-terrorism and
    counter-insurgency assistance.  France is providing
    military assistance and security cooperation to Pakistan, in
    addition to civilian emergency and humanitarian aid.
    Paris officials complain that Pakistani cooperation in
    combating the Afghan Taliban refuged in their country
    is weak, if not non-existent.  France has given about five
    million euros (7.3 million U.S. dollars) in emergency and
    reconstruction assistance to Pakistan this year.  France has
    also increased its concessionary loan commitments to Pakistan
    since the April Tokyo conference from 200 to 382 million
    euros (573 million U.S. dollars).  The loans cover
    nine projects in the areas of hydroelectricity and energy
    efficiency.  France is still also dispensing funds
    made under soft loans worth 11 million euros (16 million U.S.
    dollars) for post-earthquake reconstruction; it is not yet
    ready to contribute to the World Bank-administered
    multi-donor trust fund for Pakistan as it was not clear who
    their
    partners on the Pakistani side would be and what safeguards
    there would be over the funds.

    --------------------------------------
    IRAN: FEARS THAT WE ARE LOSING GROUND
    --------------------------------------

    ¶8.  (S/NF)  In their October 14 phone call, Presidents
    Sarkozy and Obama agreed that if Iran
    responds negatively to the uranium enrichment deal on the
    table, then we must take more serious measures, including
    additional sanctions.  Senior French officials believe that
    we are losing traction on this issue within the
    international community, as countries continue to engage in
    normal diplomatic and commercial relations
    with Iran (exemplified by Chinese business interests, Turkish
    PM Erdogan's recent visit to Iran, and Iranian
    President Ahmedinejad's planned trip to Brazil in late
    November).  Sarkozy's position is bolstered by his staunch

    PARIS 00001473  003.2 OF 004

    belief in non-proliferation (to maintain France's own
    deterrent capability), his real concern about the threat to
    Israel, and his personal ire at the way Iran has tried to
    manipulate France, including by holding French citizen
    Clotilde Reiss and Franco-Iranian dual national Nazak Afshar
    for alleged illegal participation in this summer's
    street protests.  Some senior French officials have suggested
    that Sarkozy's tough line can be useful as "the
    pointy edge of the sword" in meeting the Iranian challenge.
    As we plan next steps on Iran, Kouchner will
    likely be interested in your readout of your recent
    discussions in Moscow as well as the latest efforts to
    bring China on board.

    ------------------------------------------
    PUSHING ENGAGEMENT WITH RUSSIA
    ------------------------------------------

    ¶9.  (C/NF)  French policy toward Russia under President
    Sarkozy reflects the belief that engagement with Moscow is
    the best way to influence Russian behavior.  Paris has
    welcomed U.S. efforts to "re-set" relations with Russia and
    has consistently emphasized developing a common approach with
    Washington toward Moscow.  French officials maintain
    that dialogue must underpin our efforts to elicit Moscow's
    cooperation; this is particularly true on European
    security, an area in which Sarkozy -- who last year proposed
    an OSCE summit on the issue -- seeks to exert
    French leadership. French priorities for strategic dialogue
    with Moscow include promoting economic
    cooperation; encouraging Russia to work through institutions
    with set rules; supporting Russian
    actions in public while taking a more honest approach in
    private meetings; and cultivating relations with Russian
    President Dmitri Medvedev, in the hope that he can become a
    leader independent of Vladimir Putin. Putin is due in
    Paris later this month, Sarkozy will go to Moscow in
    February, and Medvedev will visit France in March 2010.

    -----------------------------------------
    AN URGENT FOCUS ON CLIMATE CHANGE
    -----------------------------------------

    ¶10.  (SBU) The French remain divided on how to respond to the
    Obama Administration's approaches to climate change.
    Most of the interested public and many in the government
    believe that interim 2020 reduction targets, and the level
    of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and concentrations at that
    time, will determine success or failure in slowing
    global warming.  For them, the EU's target of 20 to 30
    percent reductions below 1990 is the sole measure of an
    acceptable policy.  Even sophisticated observers are
    skeptical that long-term reduction goals legislated in the
    United States can be counted on as more than aspirations,
    especially if radical cuts are not imposed up front.  We
    have reiterated that U.S. laws are reliably enforced by the
    Federal government and by U.S. courts, using the Clean
    Air Act as our example.  Ministry of Foreign Affairs
    officials agree that legislation moving through Congress
    and the Administration's proposals would establish a system
    comparable to the EU's measures.  These officials
    regard Environment Minister Jean-Louis Borloo's public
    criticisms of Waxman-Markey as "insufficient on the medium
    term goal" as distracting attention from the need for China
    and India to reduce their rates of growth in GHG
    emissions.

    ------------------------------------------
    WANTS TO BE A PLAYER IN THE MIDDLE EAST
    ------------------------------------------

    ¶11.  (S/NF)  The GOF is eager to engage with the United
    States on the Middle East peace process and worries we are
    not moving fast enough.  President Sarkozy and FM Kouchner
    continue to press for a Middle East peace summit before the
    end of the year, to be held under the auspices of the Union
    for the Mediterranean, of which Egypt and France are
    currently co-chairs.  A sense of frustration and ambition
    informs the French approach toward the Middle East peace
    process: they are frustrated that they must rely on the USG
    and on stubborn parties in the region to end a conflict
    whose persistence adversely affects their national interests,
    and they are ambitious to play a larger role in
    the peace process, in order to facilitate a successful
    outcome and to enjoy the prestige that such a role would
    earn them.  As a case in point, last week Kouchner had to
    cancel a planned visit to Israel and the Palestinian
    territories in part because of the continuing tension there,
    and in part because of Israel's refusal to allow him

    PARIS 00001473  004.2 OF 004

    to visit a French hospital in Gaza.  Nonetheless, aside from
    their criticism of the pace at which we have proceeded
    with negotiations, French officials continue to take concrete
    steps to support our efforts to broker peace among
    the various states and groups in the region: they have
    consistently affirmed our leadership role in their own
    bilateral contacts, in multilateral fora, and in public and
    private statements.

    --------------------------------------------- ------
    INCREASING CONCERNS ABOUT U.S. FOCUS ON DISARMAMENT
    --------------------------------------------- ------

    ¶12.  (S/NF) French officials are increasingly concerned that
    the Obama administration's commitment to an eventual
    "world free of nuclear weapons" represents a divergence from
    the French position on a strong deterrence policy.
    Furthermore, they worry that a focus on disarmament goals by
    legitimate nuclear weapons states will pressure them to
    cut their own modest arsenal and will serve as a distraction
    from serious proliferation concerns by states
    like North Korea and Iran.  The GOF would like to use every
    available forum, including the 2010 NPT Review Conference,
    to strongly and specifically rebuke Iran and North Korea (and
    were greatly disappointed by our decision not to do so
    at the September 24 UNSC summit).  Additionally, France is
    "psychologically" committed to a deterrent force
    as a symbol of its strategic independence and they will
    strive to maintain the "legitimacy" of nuclear weapons as a
    key element of military strategy.  Any suggestion that
    bilateral U.S.-Russian arms reduction talks should
    eventually include other nuclear powers, or that an FMCT
    should address existing stockpiles, are absolute redlines
    for the French.

    -------------------------------------
    A PARTNER IN AFRICA
    -------------------------------------

    ¶13.  (C) France is struggling somewhat to implement Sarkozy's
    vision of a new approach to Africa, in part
    because of recent governance crises in a number of
    Francophone countries, including Mauritania, Gabon,
    Madagascar, Niger, and Guinea, where the need for expediency
    in bringing stability can sometimes trump
    loftier principles.  We are still waiting to see if France
    will, in fact close down one of its military bases on the
    Atlantic side, in Senegal or Gabon in an effort to streamline
    its presence in Africa.  That said, France is a
    progressively more open interlocutor on Africa and there are
    many areas where we are working closely, including
    pushing for a transitional government in Guinea, supporting
    efforts to deter sexual violence, and, increasingly,
    coordinating on addressing the AQIM threat in Mali and
    Mauritania.  The MFA's initial response to our new Sudan
    strategy is positive.  France, as the leader of the EU's anti
    piracy effort off the Horn of Africa is an
    important partner on counter-piracy and maritime security
    issues.

    RIVKIN

`