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CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN SECRET SECRET//NOFORN UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

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### Viewing cable 09BERLIN1106, CHANCELLOR ANGELA "TEFLON" MERKEL TAKES LIMELIGHT

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Reference ID | Date | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | ---
09BERLIN1106 | 2009-09-09 16:04 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Berlin

`

    VZCZCXRO1733
    PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSL RUEHSR
    DE RUEHRL #1106/01 2521657
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 091657Z SEP 09
    FM AMEMBASSY BERLIN
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5130
    INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BERLIN 001106

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2019
    TAGS: GM PREL PGOV
    SUBJECT: CHANCELLOR ANGELA "TEFLON" MERKEL TAKES LIMELIGHT
    AS FDP WAITS IN THE WINGS

    Classified By: MINISTER COUNSELOR FOR POLITICAL AFFAIRS GEORGE GLASS FO
    R REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)

    SUMMARY
    -------

    ¶1. (C) Less than two weeks after her party suffered losses
    in two state elections, CDU Chancellor Angela Merkel found
    her fighting spirit before 8,000 party faithful at a
    September 6 election rally in Duesseldorf launching the "hot
    phase" of the CDU/CSU electoral campaign. The CDU has been
    shifting party tactics after its losses in the August 30
    elections in Saarland and Thuringia, where the Social
    Democratic Party (SPD) may now be in a position to form
    coalitions with the Left Party. Merkel -- to great applause
    -- focused in on the specter of a so-called red-red
    government composed of the SPD and The Left Party. She
    described the SPD as suffering from an "identity crisis," and
    needing a vacation from political decision-making and time in
    opposition. Along with the entire CDU leadership and
    incumbent CDU/CSU Ministers-president, Merkel made her case
    for a CDU/CSU coalition with the pro-business but socially
    liberal FDP. She repeated the CDU/CSU's election mantra: "we
    have the strength" throughout her speech, aiming to convince
    the German electorate that a strong CDU/CSU is required for
    Germany to emerge from its worst economic recession in
    post-war history. CDU views on whether the issue of
    Germany's role in Afghanistan would become a more prominent
    campaign theme were mixed.

    ¶2. (C) With three weeks to go before the parliamentary
    elections, all signs point to Chancellor Merkel returning to
    office, although she and her party recognize that they face a
    difficult campaign. It remains uncertain whether the CDU and
    the FDP will gain enough support to form a majority
    coalition. If not, another Grand Coalition (CDU/CSU-SPD) is
    very likely; other options require a three-party
    constellation that would force the ill-suited Greens and FDP
    to work together. But, there seems to be an almost one
    hundred percent certainty -- given the SPD's chronic slump in
    the polls and limited coalition options -- that SPD Foreign
    Minister and Chancellor-candidate Frank Walter Steinmeier
    will not become Chancellor. End summary.

    MERKEL CASTS ASIDE SPD, EMBRACES FDP
    ------------------------------------

    ¶3. (C) Chancellor Merkel -- to rapturous cries of "Angie,
    Angie" and a standing ovation -- took to the floor at her
    party's September 6 rally before some 8,000 supporters
    affirming that the CDU/CSU "have the best chance to win the
    parliamentary elections" but also cautioning that "the
    election's outcome has not yet been decided." On the one
    hand, she praised her Grand Coalition government's record,
    noting its success in countering Germany's economic and
    financial crisis. On the other hand, she called for a new
    CDU/CSU coalition with the FDP after the upcoming elections--
    casting aside the SPD. She asserted that such a coalition
    would anchor Germany in the "middle" of the political
    spectrum and take the country out of its current economic
    crisis faster. Merkel said: "Our country needs a government
    that will support growth, security and work for everyone."
    In a swipe at the SPD (COMMENT: Merkel never mentioned
    Steinmeier by name. END COMMENT.), she said the party is
    currently plagued by an "identity crisis," adding that, "The
    SPD is devoid of any reality and is distraught." She asked,
    "How can a party that achieved 10, 18, and 24 percent at the
    recent state elections in Saxony, Thuringia, and Saarland be
    taken seriously?" Dismissing SPD warnings against a
    so-called "black-yellow" (CDU/CSU-FDP) coalition, Merkel said
    that the country should be more worried about the SPD's plans
    to form coalitions with The Left Party on the state and
    federal levels. (Note: The SPD has warned that a
    black-yellow coalition would represent wealthy Germany and
    business interest at the expense of the middle and lower
    classes.)

    ¶4. (U) CDU leaders also tried to cast the CDU at the state
    level in a positive light after its poor showing in the
    Saarland and Thuringia state elections on August, causing the
    Minister President of the latter state to resign. Lower
    Saxony's CDU Minister President Christian Wulff asserted that
    the most prosperous and successful "Laender" (states) in
    Germany are those ruled by the CDU/CSU and FDP. He cited
    Berlin, governed by SPD Mayor Klaus Wowereit's Berlin (NOTE:
    in Berlin the SPD rules with The Left Party. END NOTE), as
    being the worst case. Hesse's Minister President Roland Koch
    -- to great applause -- noted that he could not understand
    how the SPD could possibly cooperate on a state or national
    level with a Left Party that is "anti-American and
    anti-European." (Note: In Saarland and Thuringia the option

    BERLIN 00001106 002 OF 003

    exists for the SPD to form a governing coalition with the
    Left Party. END NOTE.)

    CSU Truce with FDP?
    -------------------

    ¶5. (C) CSU Bavarian Minister-President Horst Seehofer threw
    his party's support behind a CDU/CSU coalition with the FDP,
    despite his well-publicized doubts about the FDP's real
    coalition intentions after the parliamentary elections. Even
    as Seehofer pronounced his support for the FDP in
    Duesseldorf, however, media reports from Munich confirmed
    that the CSU had decided to continue attacking the FDP. The
    CSU has been buffing its economic bona fides by attacking the
    FDP on its own themes while basking in the reflected glory
    from popular Economics Minister zu Guttenberg, the new CSU
    champion. Seehofer has publicly suspected that FDP Chairman
    Guido Westerwelle -- in an attempt to enter government at all
    costs -- might support a "traffic light" coalition with the
    SPD and the Greens, although this political constellation
    appears unlikely at present. In addition, Bavarian politics
    trump national politics, especially during a time when the
    CSU longs for the days when their party alone wielded
    political power in Munich, rather than as it does today, in a
    coalition with the FDP. Seehofer is also aware that the CSU
    needs to be strong and the FDP proportionally more weak for
    the CSU to win more and better ministerial posts in a
    CDU/CSU-FDP coalition. He did not use his appearance in
    Duesseldorf to chide the FDP, to the great delight of those
    pleading that recent CDU/CSU-FDP bickering had been harmful
    and counter-productive during the campaign.

    AFGHANISTAN - A DOMESTIC CAMPAIGN ISSUE?
    ----------------------------------------

    ¶6. (C) The September 4 air strike against two fuel tankers
    near Kunduz, Afghanistan hit the press right before the
    CDU/CSU rally. In light of the German media's frenzy, PolOff
    asked the CDU's Head of International Relations Klemens
    Moemkes whether Germany's ISAF commitment might emerge as a
    potential domestic campaign issue. Moemkes noted that the
    SPD could make Afghanistan an issue but this would be very
    odd given Foreign Minister Steinmeier's support for Germany's
    military role in ISAF. However, the prospect of Afghanistan
    becoming a major theme clearly had the CDU's xxxxx
    spooked. He told PolOff that it would be very difficult for
    the Chancellor not to address Germany's role in Afghanistan
    in the coming weeks. Given the German public's overwhelming
    support for a withdrawal of German troops from Afghanistan,
    this was not an issue the Chancellor wanted to address in the
    run-up to the parliamentary elections.

    COMMENT
    -------

    ¶7. (C) While it is all but certain that Chancellor Merkel
    will return to office as Chancellor after the next
    parliamentary elections on September 27, it is too close to
    call whether she will achieve a coalition with the FDP.
    Bavarian MP Seehofer's attacks on the FDP in Bavaria could
    weaken that party there and further undermine the chances of
    a coalition. The FDP wants the same but political bickering
    over future ministerial positions and CSU attacks on the FDP
    in Bavaria and on FDP Chairman Guido Westerwelle suggest that
    a possible CDU/CSU-FDP coalition will not be a marriage made
    in heaven. Some FDP contacts admit that they harbor doubts
    about the Chancellor's promise to form a coalition with the
    FDP. They insinuate that in reality she may prefer another
    Grand Coalition with the SPD, although Chancellor Merkel has
    used every public opportunity to advertise for a CDU/CSU-FDP
    coalition. Backing down on this pledge would call into
    question her reputation.

    ¶8. (C) Paradoxically, however, it is the CDU/CSU's relative
    weakness in the polls (35-36 percent) that threatens a
    possible CDU/CSU-FDP coalition. The FDP is clearly riding on
    a high with double-digit successes in the state elections of
    Saarland, Saxony, and Thuringia, but this may not be enough.
    The CDU refuses to engage in any self-introspection after its
    defeats in Saarland and Thuringia and the party can really
    only take comfort from the SPD's perennial weakness. The
    fear in the CDU is acute that the Chancellor's high
    popularity ratings may not be enough to ensure a comfortable
    win for the CDU/CSU at the parliamentary elections.

    ¶9. (C) Merkel, once again, vehemently denies any intention
    to form a Grand Coalition with the SPD but the electoral math
    on September 27 may force her -- despite intense CDU/CSU
    reservations, not to mention those of the German public -- to
    look at the SPD as a partner. As for the SPD, Steinmeier is

    BERLIN 00001106 003 OF 003

    looking desperate. The SPD has failed to reach over 25
    percent in the last six elections and Steinmeier's unlikely
    path to the chancellorship is only possible if he reneges on
    a campaign promise not to form a coalition with The Left
    Party. This will not happen in 2009 but the CDU/CSU will not
    tire of raising the fear of a red-red coalition in 2009 or in
    ¶2013. The Chancellor appears to be in a win-win situation
    but three weeks on the campaign trail can be an eternity.
    End comment.
    Murphy

`