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CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN SECRET SECRET//NOFORN UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

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### Viewing cable 09MUNICH25, YOUTHFUL POLITICIANS SHAKE UP GERMAN STATUS QUO

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Reference ID | Date | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | ---
09MUNICH25 | 2009-02-13 06:06 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Consulate Munich

`

    VZCZCXRO1054
    PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
    RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHNP RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSK RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
    DE RUEHMZ #0025/01 0440601
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    P 130601Z FEB 09
    FM AMCONSUL MUNICH
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4655
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
    RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC
    RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE
    RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
    RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MUNICH 000025

    SENSITIVE
    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: ECON ETRD PGOV PREL INRB GM
    SUBJECT: YOUTHFUL POLITICIANS SHAKE UP GERMAN STATUS QUO

    SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.

    REFS: A) BERLIN 169 B) 08 MUNICH 355 and previous

    -------
    SUMMARY
    -------

    ¶1.  (SBU) Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg (37) is Germany's new and
    youngest-ever Economics Minister, assuming a portfolio for which he
    is not wholly suited academically (REF A) but which he could master
    using his proven personal and political skills. If he is successful,
    he could become the poster child for renewal of Horst Seehofer's
    Christian Social Union (CSU), now struggling to convince voters that
    it is modern and savvy enough to succeed and not the hide-bound
    regional redoubt of conservatism that lost big in Bavaria last fall
    (REF B).  (Biographical data at paragraph 8.)    End Summary.

    ¶2.  (SBU) Supporters and detractors focus on the same qualities in
    the precocious zu Guttenberg: his youth, charisma, foreign policy
    experience, and upward momentum.  Supporters say he will be
    effective because he understands modern challenges, is well known on
    both sides of the Atlantic, and is effective.  Detractors say he has
    too little experience in general and that his foreign policy
    expertise is wrong for the Economics Ministry during an economic
    crisis.

    ¶3.  (SBU) Zu Guttenberg has a proven record of beating the
    expectations of politicians and the public.  He unexpectedly
    contested and won the Chairmanship of the CSU in Upper Franconia, a
    region of Bavaria, in 2007. After becoming party general secretary
    just three months ago, he used warmth, charisma and direct
    engagement to win over party members in the provinces who were
    skeptical of his allegedly cool and aristocratic bearing (see bio
    notes below at paragraph 8).

    ------------------------------------------
    Politicians Curious; Private Sector Upbeat
    ------------------------------------------

    ¶4.   (SBU) Zu Guttenberg could add some gloss to the cabinet by
    concentrating in a high-profile way on the business side of the
    economy, leaving high finance to Peer Steinbrueck (Social Democratic
    Party, SPD).  This might be a good strategy.  Senior contacts at the
    Bavarian Economics Ministry told the Consulate political specialist
    that "they are enthusiastic about zu Guttenberg."  Although he would
    not really have time to master the difficult ministry within the six
    months he has before the Federal Bundestag election, they believed
    zu Guttenberg was "smart, with a quick mind, and that he would
    definitely make himself far more visible than Glos ever did."
    Embassy contacts in Berlin have echoed these sentiments and think zu
    Guttenberg is well-suited to capitalize on opportunities with the
    new US Administration.  He seems to get on well with Chancellor
    Merkel.  Moreover, business representatives and the private sector
    have given the new man an early round of applause.  For example,
    Employers' Association President Dieter Hundt said zu Guttenberg's
    international experience, political clout, and contacts would all
    help him promote the interests of employers.  Representatives from
    Industry and Chambers of Commerce expressed the expectation that zu
    Guttenberg would support medium-sized business and strengthen
    transatlantic economic ties, based on his own experience in his
    family's enterprises.  Zu Guttenberg's tasks are manifold:
    Implementation of the savings package worth 100 billion Euros;
    negotiate with companies that have asked for state money, such as
    Continental and car manufacturer Opel; find a solution for Hypo Real
    Estate bank; and tackle a wealth of questions with regard to energy
    and ecology. Chancellor Merkel will want zu Guttenberg to strike a
    balance between being seen as a hands-on minister and preventing the
    election campaign from being fought over the financial crisis,
    something that could weaken Government prospects.

    ----------------------------------------
    THE NEW CSU - MORE ATTRACTIVE TO VOTERS?
    ----------------------------------------

    ¶5. (SBU) With this appointment, Bavarian Minister President Horst
    Seehofer, also CSU, extended his radical rejuvenation strategy of
    the party to the federal level.  Michael Glos was the last senior
    CSU politician from the preceding Edmund Stoiber generation.  "zu
    Guttenberg is young, very young - but that is exactly what I want in
    the process of renewal," said Seehofer.  The CSU faces potentially
    existential challenges in the races for the German Federal and
    European Parliaments and Seehofer obviously believes that only fresh
    faces can lead the party into a brighter future.  After taking
    office as Bavarian Minister President last fall, Seehofer replaced
    all members of the cabinet over 60 years of age with considerably

    MUNICH 00000025  002 OF 002

    younger people, including more women.  Seehofer's departure as
    Federal Agriculture Minister enabled him to install 44-year old Ilse
    Aigner as his successor. With zu Guttenberg gone to Berlin, Seehofer
    has appointed two from the younger CSU generation to replace him -
    Alexander Dobrindt, a relative unknown 38-year-old Bundestag deputy,
    and Dorothee Baer, the 30-year-old who was just recently promoted to
    foreign policy spokesperson of the CSU Bundestag caucus.  Seehofer
    knows that the June 7 European Parliament elections and the
    September 27 national elections are the tests to see whether
    Bavarians go along with his new CSU.

    -------
    Comment
    -------

    ¶7.  (SBU) The SPD may hope to profit from the replacement of Michael
    Glos with the relatively inexperienced zu Guttenberg; this may prove
    difficult.  Glos was from the start considered one of Merkel's
    weakest ministers, and his departure removes a favorite target of
    his political opponents.  It will be far more difficult to score
    points by attacking his successor, who is a skilled debater.  In the
    middle of a serious economic and financial crisis, zu Guttenberg's
    challenge will be to convince the electorate in Germany that the
    CDU/CSU remains the party best able to cope with economic
    challenges.  It may not hurt that the new CSU Secretary General,
    Alexander Dobrindt, has previously served as economic spokesman of
    the CSU caucus.  The economy will no doubt be the overriding issue
    in the unfolding election campaign.

    --------------------------------------------- ----------
    Biographical Data: Germany's Youngest Minister, a Baron
    --------------------------------------------- ----------

    ¶8.  The 37-year-old Karl-Theodor von und zu Guttenberg was CSU
    Secretary General for only 100 days.  His nomination to Federal
    Economics Minister had not been on his agenda; however, he said, it
    was "an honor he could not reject." zu Guttenberg, descendent of a
    nobility line dating back to the year 1149, comes from a family with
    a strong political background: His grandfather was a Parliamentarian
    State Secretary under Chancellor Konrad Adenauer, his father is a
    famous conductor, and his grand-uncle supported NS resistance
    fighter Count von Stauffenberg and was executed by the Nazis.  His
    father left the CSU when then-Minister President Streibl cancelled
    his participation in a demonstration against anti-Semitism (he later
    rejoined the party).  Zu Guttenberg is a man of considerable
    rhetorical skills, which in 2007 resulted in his election to CSU
    district chairman of Upper Franconia over his rival, party whip
    Hartmut Koschyk.  Ever since he became a member of the Bundestag in
    2002, he has proven a quick study, making himself a name as foreign
    and security policy expert.  He draws from a rich network of
    international contacts, in Europe as well as in the U.S.  Right
    before the February 6-8 Munich Security Conference, he chaired a
    roundtable on foreign policy issues, attended, among others, by
    Special Representative Richard Holbrooke, Deputy Secretary James
    Steinberg, and USNATO Ambassador Kurt Volker.  He is not without an
    economic background.  For a few years, he worked as investment
    banker in New York; until 2002, he served as managing director of a
    family business.  He also helped prepare a medium-sized company,
    Rhoen Hospitals, to enter the stock market.  He speaks fluent
    English.  His wife, Stephanie, is also of noble lineage.  They have
    two daughters.  Diplopedia reference:
    http://diplopedia.state.gov/index.php?title=
    Karl_Theodor_Freiherr_zu_Guttenberg

    ¶9. (U) Consulate General Munich coordinated this report with Embassy
    Berlin.  Track Munich reporting at
    http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Germ any.

`