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CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN SECRET SECRET//NOFORN UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

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### Viewing cable 08MUNICH423, GERMANY/BAVARIA: GERMAN COALITION PARTIES

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Reference ID | Date | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | ---
08MUNICH423 | 2008-12-23 08:08 | CONFIDENTIAL | Consulate Munich

`

    VZCZCXRO3268
    OO RUEHAG RUEHROV RUEHSR
    DE RUEHMZ #0423/01 3580840
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    O 230840Z DEC 08
    FM AMCONSUL MUNICH
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4623
    INFO RUCNMEU/EU INTEREST COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
    RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
    RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
    RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO IMMEDIATE 0307
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC IMMEDIATE
    RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MUNICH 000423

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/22/2018
    TAGS: PGOV GM
    SUBJECT: GERMANY/BAVARIA: GERMAN COALITION PARTIES
    QUARRELING

    REF: A. MUNICH 355
    ¶B. MUNICH 351

    Classified By: Consul General Eric Nelson for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

    SUMMARY
    -------

    ¶1. (SBU) The Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU),
    dangerously weakened, is attempting to sharpen its profile
    among Bavarian and national voters, by pursuing an aggressive
    economic campaign that diverges from that of its sister
    party, Chancellor Merkel's Christian Democrats. The CSU is
    finding plenty of opportunities to profile itself locally and
    nationally in addressing the challenges presented by the
    financial crisis. For one, Bavarian Minister President
    Seehofer has threatened to boycott the January 5 "coalition
    summit" if Chancellor Merkel does not bend to the CSU's
    recipe for responding to Germany's economic downturn through
    a tax reform proposal. Merkel needs a strong CSU showing in
    Bavaria to achieve her goal of a CDU/CSU-FDP coalition after
    the 2009 national elections, but the CSU's strategy could
    build tensions between the sister parties. How the CDU-CSU
    divisions play out could influence national economic policy
    as well as how the upcoming campaign will shape up in the
    months to come. End Summary.

    CSU SALTING THE CDU'S SOUP
    --------------------------

    ¶2. (SBU) The CSU still holds Chancellor Merkel partly
    responsible for the CSU's poor outcome in the September 2008
    state elections. Merkel failed to support the CSU, for
    example, on the tax deductibility of commuting costs, one of
    the CSU's key issues that the CDU had rejected until the
    latest ruling by the Federal Constitutional Court that agreed
    with the position of the CSU. Erwin Huber, former head of
    the CSU, said "the CDU should have listened to us instead of
    Finance Minister Steinbrueck (SPD) on this sensitive issue."

    ¶3. (C) Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, Secretary General of the
    CSU (PROTECT), told the Consul General on December 17 that
    the CSU is "heating up the debate" and will meet on January 4
    "to map out a strategy for the 2009 election campaign,"
    adding, "We want to be more like the party was under Edmund
    Stoiber and Franz Josef Straus (both legendary former
    Minister Presidents)." Or, as Hartmut Kotschyk (CSU party
    whip in the Bundestag) put it to the P/E Chief recently, "We
    want to be the salt in their soup."

    ¶4. (C) Zu Guttenberg and Koschyk reviewed possible
    approaches the CSU would take with its platform for 2009.

    a) Taking a hard line against EU membership not only for
    Turkey but also for Ukraine. The CSU could lump Turkey and
    Ukraine together so neither country could feel singled out
    for bad treatment. The CSU's new foreign policy spokeswoman
    in the Bundestag, Dorothee Baer, told Berlin PolMC that this
    would be a focus of the CSU's campaign for European
    Parliament elections in June 2009.

    b) Insisting on more EU "subsidiarity." The CSU wants more
    respect for national and regional and local prerogatives in
    governance and administrative control, such as allowing
    restrictions on bioengineered seeds.

    c) Strengthening and refocusing the economy. The CSU wants
    a renewed commitment to human over financial capital as a way
    to address what Koschyk called "a believability problem among
    the rank and file Germans for the market economy." Zu
    Guttenberg complained that "Merkel was not being assertive
    enough on the economy," echoing recent statements by Horst
    Seehofer, Bavarian Minister President (CSU). However, he
    also admitted that he could understand her approach since he
    found her to be "personally conservative" and "not one to be
    in the front on bold initiatives." He expected she was
    "trying to maintain her options in 2009" as well as "trying
    to stay close to the coalition Social Democratic Party (SPD)."

    BAVARIA'S PRESIDENT CUTTING A MEAN FIGURE
    -----------------------------------------

    ¶5. (SBU) Finally, MP Seehofer has criticized the CDU in
    public around Bavaria, in Berlin, and in the media, which
    reported that CDU leaders viewed his actions as
    "unpredictable" because he made proposals that strayed from

    MUNICH 00000423 002 of 002

    the coalition's party line. He criticized the Chancellor's
    economic course, for example, arguing that Germany needed a
    larger and more meaningful program than the Chancellor had
    supported. Seehofer preserved the independence of Bavarian
    control over the Bayerische Landesbank (BayernLB) by
    rejecting the Federal rescue package in an attempt to use
    only Bavarian resources. And, he pushed for immediate tax
    deductions, not just some time after the election.

    COMMENT: CREATING INDIVIDUALITY WITHOUT KILLING EACH OTHER
    --------------------------------------------- -------------

    ¶6. (C) Chancellor Merkel and the CDU need a strong and
    cooperative Bavarian CSU partner in order to win the 2009
    Bundestag election. Down in Bavaria, the CSU must get
    stronger, too, and is fighting for its uniqueness as a
    regional party with national and international credentials.
    Although the ultimate goals are compatible, the CSU
    necessarily must set itself apart from the CDU to prove
    itself to skeptical locals who knocked the CSU off its high
    horse in the last election. The challenge for both parties
    is to allow the CSU to profile itself without killing the
    relationship, and each other's chances, with an overly
    aggressive factional campaign.

    ¶7. (U) Track Munich reporting at
    xxxxx
    NELSON

`