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### Viewing cable 07PARIS170, CHIRAC'S ENVOY TO IRAN -- WHAT'S PROMPTING THIS

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Reference ID | Date | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | ---
07PARIS170 | 2007-01-17 14:02 | SECRET | Embassy Paris

`

    VZCZCXYZ0002
    OO RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHFRA #0170 0171418
    ZNY SSSSS ZZH
    O 171418Z JAN 07
    FM AMEMBASSY PARIS
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0000
    INFO ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE
    EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC
    RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK

` `

    S E C R E T PARIS 000170

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/17/2017
    TAGS: FR IR LE PGOV PREL
    SUBJECT: CHIRAC'S ENVOY TO IRAN -- WHAT'S PROMPTING THIS
    AND WHAT WE SHOULD DO ABOUT IT

    CLASSIFIED BY: POLITICAL MINISTER-COUNSELOR JOSIAH ROSENBLATT, REASONS

    PAGE 02 RUEHFRA0170 S E C R E T
    1.4 (B) AND (D).

    ¶1. (S)  LE MONDE'S JAN. 17 EDITION RAN A FRONT-PAGE STORY ON
    CHIRAC,S INTEREST IN PURSUING A DIALOGUE WITH IRAN ON
    LEBANON, THUS CONFIRMING WHAT MFA POLITICAL DIRECTOR GERARD
    ARAUD TOLD THE AMBASSADOR DURING THEIR JAN. 15 MEETING.  WE
    FACE THE PROSPECT OF UNTOWARD POLICY INITIATIVES BY CHIRAC
    DURING THE WANING MONTHS OF HIS PRESIDENCY.  (THE FIRST ROUND
    OF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WILL BE HELD APRIL 22; IT IS
    WIDELY ASSUMED THAT CHIRAC WILL NOT BE IN A POSITION TO RUN
    FOR A THIRD TERM.)  WE MAY HAVE ENTERED A PERIOD IN WHICH THE
    DOMESTIC POLITICAL CONTEXT WILL IMPACT DIRECTLY ON FOREIGN
    POLICY DECISIONS, PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD TO LEBANON AND
    IRAN.

    ¶2. (S)  FIRST OF ALL THE FACTS, AS WE KNOW THEM AND AS
    CONVEYED TO AMBASSADOR STAPLETON BY ARAUD.  CHIRAC FAVORED
    ENLISTING IRAN IN AN EFFORT TO BREAK THE STALEMATE IN
    LEBANON.  TO THIS END, THE PRESIDENCY PROPOSED SENDING
    FOREIGN MINISTER DOUSTE-BLAZY TO TEHRAN TO SOUND OUT THE

    PAGE 03 RUEHFRA0170 S E C R E T
    IRANIANS ON THEIR PLAYING A CONSTRUCTIVE ROLE IN LEBANON --
    WITHOUT REFERENCE TO THE NUCLEAR ISSUE.  THE FOREIGN
    MINISTRY, UNCONVINCED THAT THERE WOULD BE ANY IRANIAN
    INTEREST, AND CONCERNED ABOUT APPROACHING IRAN AS A
    DEMANDEUR, OPPOSED THE INITIATIVE.  SAUDI ARABIA AND EGYPT
    BOTH VOICED STRENUOUS OBJECTIONS.  U/S BURNS RAISED USG
    CONCERNS DIRECTLY WITH ARAUD.  THE ELYSEE THEREFORE BACKED
    OFF "FOR NOW" ACCORDING TO THE MFA SPOKESMAN YESTERDAY.
    WHILE ARAUD DID NOT MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF A VISIT TO
    TEHRAN BY A LOWER-RANKING ENVOY, LE MONDE HINTED THAT MIDDLE
    EAST TROUBLE-SHOOTER JEAN-CLAUDE COUSSERAN, WHO VISITED THE
    IRANIAN CAPITAL IN JULY, DURING THE ISRAEL/HIZBALLAH WAR,
    COULD BE DISPATCHED AGAIN IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

    ¶3. (S)  REPORTING IN OTHER CHANNELS INDICATES THIS IS INDEED
    POSSIBLE.  THE DECISION NOT TO SEND DOUSTE-BLAZY COULD WELL
    BE DEFINITIVE.  EVEN IF A LOWER-LEVEL EMISSARY IS SENT TO
    TEHRAN, THE MAKINGS OF A DEAL ON LEBANON ARE NOT OBVIOUS.
    HOWEVER, THIS EPISODE HAS HIGHLIGHTED A NUMBER OF CONTEXTUAL
    FACTORS AND HYPOTHESES THAT GIVE RISE TO A FEW CONCERNS.

    PAGE 04 RUEHFRA0170 S E C R E T

    ¶4. (S)  THE FIRST IS THAT THE DISTORTING EFFECT OF CHIRAC,S
    "OBSESSION WITH LEBANON" (ARAUD,S WORDS) MIGHT ONLY BE
    FURTHER ACCENTUATED AS HIS PRESIDENCY DRAWS TO A CLOSE.
    CHIRAC,S FOCUS COULD BE NARROWING IN ON ONE SINGLE
    OBJECTIVE: TO ENSURE THAT THE SYRIAN REGIME, WHICH HE REGARDS
    AS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ASSASSINATION OF RAFIK HARIRI, DOES
    NOT GAIN A NEW FOOTHOLD IN LEBANON.  THIS COULD TRANSLATE
    INTO A WILLINGNESS TO WORK WITH IRAN TO FIND SOME SORT OF
    ACCOMMODATION WHICH STRENGTHENS HIZBOLLAH IN LEBANON, BUT
    PREVENTS THE STRATEGIC RETURN OF SYRIA.  NO MFA OR ELYSEE
    INTERLOCUTOR HAS POINTED US TO SUCH A CONCLUSION, BUT WE ARE
    LEFT WITH FEW OTHER EXPLANATIONS FOR CHIRAC'S APPARENT
    DETERMINATION TO REACH OUT AT THIS TIME TO HIZBOLLAH,S MAIN
    REGIONAL SPONSOR.

    ¶5. (S)  MOREOVER, THIS ANALYSIS IS CONSISTENT WITH OTHER
    INDICATIONS OF LATE THAT FRANCE IS FIXATED ON LOWERING
    TENSIONS IN LEBANON.  THESE INCLUDE, INTER ALIA: THE
    RELUCTANCE (THUS FAR) TO OPERATE FRENCH UAVS OVER SOUTHERN

    PAGE 05 RUEHFRA0170 S E C R E T
    LEBANON; THE MFA'S DECISION IN LATE DECEMBER TO "TAKE A
    BREAK" FROM PUSHING FOR THE RAPID ESTABLISHMENT OF THE
    INTERNATIONAL TRIBUNAL FOR LEBANON; AND THE FACT THAT MFA
    DESK OFFICERS ARE CAREFULLY SCRUBBING PRESIDENT CHIRAC'S
    PROPOSED INTERVENTION AT THE JANUARY 25 LEBANON CONFERENCE TO
    ENSURE THAT THE PRESIDENT'S MESSAGE DOES NOT ANTAGONIZE THE
    LEBANESE OPPOSITION.  IN ADDITION, CHIRACS NEW-FOUND CAUTION
    ON LEBANON AND HIS PROPOSED OVERTURE TO IRAN MAY BOTH REFLECT
    THE FRENCH PRESIDENT'S FEAR OF INCURRING FRENCH CASUALTIES IN
    LEBANON IN THE FINAL MONTHS OF HIS PRESIDENCY.

    ¶6. (S)  ANOTHER CONCERN RELATES TO CHIRAC,S FOREIGN POLICY
    LEGACY, WHICH HINGES SIGNIFICANTLY ON TWO ACHIEVEMENTS, HIS
    LEADERSHIP IN OPPOSING THE U.S. OVER IRAQ, AND IN RESTORING
    LEBANON,S INDEPENDENCE.  THE LE MONDE REPORT WHICH BROKE THE
    NEWS OF THE ABORTED DOUSTE-BLAZY MISSION CLOSES WITH
    SPECULATION THAT CHIRAC IS INCREASINGLY ALARMED BY U.S.
    INTENTIONS VIS A VIS IRAN.  CHIRAC COULD BE TEMPTED BY POLICY
    INITIATIVES THAT SERVE TO BOLSTER HIS LEGACY ON BOTH COUNTS:
    PROTECTING LEBANON,S INDEPENDENCE WHILE AT THE SAME TIME

    PAGE 06 RUEHFRA0170 S E C R E T
    STANDING STRONG AGAINST ANY PERCEIVED DANGEROUS DRIFT IN U.S.
    MIDDLE EAST POLICY, A REPRISE IN GENTLER FORM OF THE GLORY
    DAYS OF 2003.

    ¶7. (S)  FINALLY, CONVENTIONAL WISDOM HERE HAS IT THAT THE
    ONLY CONCEIVABLE SCENARIO WHEREBY CHIRAC COULD BECOME A

    VIABLE CANDIDATE TO SUCCEED WOULD BE IN THE CONTEXT OF AN

    PAGE 02 RUEHFRA0170 S E C R E T
    INTERNATIONAL CRISIS.  MIGHT CHIRAC BE POSITIONING HIMSELF TO
    TAKE ADVANTAGE OF AN IRAN-CENTERED CRISIS THAT WOULD OFFER
    HIS ONLY TICKET BACK TO THE ELYSEE?

    ¶8. (S)  CHIRAC MAY CHOOSE TO MOVE FORWARD WITH HIS ENVOY IDEA
    BEFORE WE CAN GET FULL CLARIFICATION.  IF HE DOES, IT SEEMS
    OBVIOUS (TO US AND TO MANY WITHIN THE FRENCH FOREIGN POLICY
    ESTABLISHMENT) THAT THE IRANIANS WILL SEIZE THE OPPORTUNITY
    TO ADVANCE THEIR OWN AGENDA IN LEBANON WHILE TRYING TO DRIVE
    A WEDGE BETWEEN FRANCE AND THE REST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
    COMMUNITY WITH RESPECT TO IRAN'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM.  WE WILL
    TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OUR INTERACTIONS WITH SENIOR FRENCH LEADERS
    OVER THE COMING DAYS TO MAKE CLEAR OUR CONCERNS, AS WE ASSUME
    WASHINGTON AGENCIES WILL DO AS WELL.  HAVING NOTED THE
    COALITION RAID ON THE IRANIAN OFFICE IN IRBIL, THE DEPLOYMENT
    OF A NEW CARRIER BATTLE GROUP TO THE PERSIAN GULF, AND RECENT
    STATEMENTS ON IRAN BY SECDEF GATES AND OTHERS, THE FRENCH ARE
    AWARE OF THE GROWING PRESSURE ON TEHRAN.  MAINTAINING OUR
    FULL AND FRANK EXCHANGES WITH THE FRENCH ON IRAN WILL BE
    PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT IN THE COMING DAYS.

    PAGE 03 RUEHFRA0170 S E C R E T

    PLEASE VISIT PARIS' CLASSIFIED WEBSITE AT:
    HTTP://WWW.STATE.SGOV.GOV/P/EUR/PARIS/INDEX.C FM

    STAPLETON

`