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CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN SECRET SECRET//NOFORN UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

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### Viewing cable 10MUNICH29, GERMANY/BAVARIA: HORST SEEHOFER, MOSTLY FOCUSED ON

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Reference ID | Date | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | ---
10MUNICH29 | 2010-02-16 08:08 | CONFIDENTIAL | Consulate Munich

`

    VZCZCXRO4185
    OO RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSL RUEHSR
    DE RUEHMZ #0029/01 0470858
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    O 160858Z FEB 10
    FM AMCONSUL MUNICH
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5042
    INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MUNICH 000029

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/12/2020
    TAGS: PREL PGOV INRB GM
    SUBJECT: GERMANY/BAVARIA: HORST SEEHOFER, MOSTLY FOCUSED ON
    DOMESTIC POLITICS

    Classified By: Consul General Conrad Tribble for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d
    )

    SUMMARY
    -------

    ¶1.  (C)  Horst Seehofer, an unpredictable politician
    struggling to regain his party's hegemony in Bavaria,
    revealed only shallow foreign policy expertise when he met
    Ambassador Murphy on the sidelines of the Munich Security
    Conference on February 6.  Seehofer, Minister President and
    leader of the Christian Social Union (CSU), did not
    contradict the Ambassador when he reviewed the new NATO
    Afghanistan policy, which implied Seehofer was now on board
    with the German governing coalition in this respect.  Closer
    to home, he expected the trend away from the major political
    parties to continue in Germany, creating opportunities for
    numerous smaller parties to enter German statehouses.
    Observers of Seehofer and his leadership of the CSU may wish
    to take his public pronouncements with a grain of salt,
    especially when he contradicts or criticize American foreign
    policy goals as he did recently on Afghanistan.  End Summary.

    ¶2.  (SBU)  Ambassador Murphy met with Bavarian Minister
    President and CSU Party Chairman Horst Seehofer on the
    margins of the Munich Security Conference on February 6.
    Referring to his recent visit to Afghanistan, the Ambassador
    told Seehofer how impressed he was with the German operation
    in the North, stressing the importance of the new Afghanistan
    strategy.  He praised the nomination of Volker Wieker to new
    Inspector General of the German Army, since Wieker had been
    General McChrystal's right hand and really knew what was
    going on.  The Ambassador further emphasized the point that
    2,500 U.S. soldiers would be sent to the North, but that
    Germans would be in control.  Maximum effort was necessary,"
    he said, noting "if we don't try, we fail."  Turning to Iran,
    Seehofer asked about the Ambassador's assessment of Iranian
    Foreign Minister Mottaki's appearance in Munich, and Murphy
    answered that Mottaki's were rather vain and
    counter-productive efforts that could not be taken seriously.

    ¶3.  (C)  In general, Seehofer had little to say regarding
    foreign policy and seemed uninformed about basic things.  For
    example, he expressed surprise when State Chancery Minister
    Siegfried Schneider, also present, emphasized that 20,000 out
    of the 40,000 U.S. soldiers in Germany were stationed in
    Bavaria.  The Ambassador emphasized the excellent
    Bavarian-American relations, stressing his visits to the
    Bavarian Representation in Berlin and the many business
    contacts.  Seehofer pointed to the economic/financial crisis
    and was not sure whether the EU would bail out Greece.  He
    called for better regulation of financial markets, adding
    that the CDU/CSU's coalition partner, the FDP, was still
    dreaming about "total liberty," yet the citizens were more
    realistic.  The Bavarian economy remained strong, he said,
    but despite relative low unemployment overall, Bavaria
    struggled with serious regional economic differences around
    the state.  "You no longer buy our cars," he joked.  The main
    problem for the Bavarian budget was the unresolved situation
    of BayernLB, he admitted.  Federal Health Minister from 1992
    to 1998, Seehofer expressed interest in the chances of
    success of the U.S. health reform, expressing his concern
    about 47 million Americans who had no health insurance.

    ¶4.  (C)  The Ambassador and Seehofer agreed that the
    political landscape in Germany had changed radically over the
    past few years.  Seehofer did not dare predict an outcome of
    the May election in North Rhine Westphalia.  Everything was
    possible, he said.  German citizens no longer shrank from
    voting for the Left Party and in the long run, the SPD and
    Left Party would likely come together again.  Five to six
    parties now had a realistic chance of entering state
    parliaments, even in Bavaria.

    COMMENT
    -------

    ¶5.  (C) As chairman of one of the three parties that make up
    the governing coalition in Berlin, Seehofer frequently and
    quite publicly addresses sensitive political issues,
    including foreign policy.  Back in December, he gave an
    interview flatly rejecting an increase of German soldiers in
    Afghanistan, which startled many political observers,
    including CSU insiders.  We note that Seehofer has never
    professed to be a foreign policy expert.  His strengths are
    rather more in domestic politics.  The drop of public support
    for the CSU in recent elections has further encouraged
    Seehofer's natural instincts to utter populist pronouncements

    MUNICH 00000029  002 OF 002

    rather than substantive statements.
    TRIBBLE

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