			Foreign Correspondent

		      Inside Track On World News
	    By International Syndicated Columnist & Broadcaster
		 Eric Margolis <emargolis@lglobal.com>

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NORTH KOREA'S BLITZKRIEG
by
Eric Margolis  7 Nov 1996



The grounding of a North Korean submarine on South Korea's
coast last Sept 18 was far more than just another bizarre
act by the world's weirdest and most dangerous regime.

The sub carried 26 North Korean commandos and sailors whose
mission was to infiltrate and reconnoitre military
installations along South Korea's east coast.  When the
sub's engines failed, the commandos escaped ashore near the
port of  Kangnung.  After a massive, seven-week manhunt, 24
of the North Koreans have been killed, one captured, and one
still remains at large. The infiltrators killed 13 South
Korean soldiers and civilians.   

This probing operation was part of North Korea's plan to
launch a surprise blitzkrieg against South Korea.  A
recently defecting North Korean pilot revealed his country's
million-man army  has a three-stage strategy to overwhelm 
South Korea in seven days.   

Stage I: storm Seoul in 24 hours. South Korea's capitol is
already within range of North Korean artillery dug in just north
of the Demilitarized Zone.  

Stage II: race southward  to take the central cities of Taejon,
Chongju; the east coast port of Kangnung and the west coast port
of Kunsan by D+ 3;

Stage III: seize Taegu and the vital southern port of Pusan
by D+ 7 before US heavy ground forces can arrive by sea. 

Airpower is the key to any conflict on the Korean Peninsula.
The combined South Korean and US air forces could quickly
overwhelm North Korea's large but obsolescent collection of
529 MiG 17's, 19's, 21's, 23's and a handful of modern MiG
29's and SU-25's..  In spite of dense anti-aircraft defenses
and hardened hangers, North Korea's air arm would be
exterminated within 48 hours. US and South Korean warplanes
could  then turn their full fury on advancing North Korean
divisions.

North Korea intends to prevent a replay of the Gulf War by
neutralizing US and South Korean air power in the first 24
hours of a war.  There are seven main air bases in South
Korea.  If these can be quickly knocked out, North Korea may
well win a short, high-intensity war.  

Pyongyang aims to prevent the US from using its bases in
Japan by threatening the nervous Japanese with attack by
chemical - or even nuclear missiles - and commando raids.
Last week, US intelligence confirmed North Korea was testing
its new No-dong2 missile which can hit all western Japan and
the Osaka region.

A war would open by a nighttime North Korean attack on South
Korean and US airbases.  First, barrages of Scud missiles 
with chemical or explosive warheads. Next, commando attack.
North Korea has the world's special operations force - 
100,0000 men.  These crack suicide troops will attack the
air bases from submarines and fast surface craft  -
precisely the operation for which the grounded submarine was
training.

Other North Korean commandos are to directly air assault 
enemy airbases in the south. They will be delivered by a
fleet of 282 AN-2 light, terrain-hugging troop transports,
whose fabric bodies are invisible to radar.  

The AN-2 `Cubs' can land directly onto South Korean and American
airfields, on their grassy fringes, and on access roads.  North
Korean commandos are tasked with destroying parked aircraft, fuel
and munitions stores, radars, and control towers.    

At the same time, other North Korean special forces units are
tasked with attacking bridges, electronic communications,
government offices, military headquarters and power stations.
More North Korean commandos will come across the DMZ -and under
it, through tunnels secretly bored 90 ft below ground.     

If it took more than 40,000 South Korean troops seven weeks
to kill two dozen North Korean commandos, imagine the effect
of a surprise, nighttime attack by 100,000 North Korean
suicide troops. US commanders in Korea fear they may only
get a few hours warning of an impending attack by the North. 

Recently, the North has forward deployed more troops, guns
and aircraft hard on the DMZ.  In spite of widescale hunger
and privation in North Korea, its huge armed forces are
reportedly fully combat ready, with high morale and ample
war stocks of fuel, food and munitions.        
 
Forty-three years after the end of the Korean Conflict,
North and South Korea remain in a state of war.  The sub
incident shows that recent efforts by the US, Japan and
South Korea to bribe North Korea into good behavior have
failed.  Pyongyang's mysterious, unpredictable  Stalinist
leadership still seems committed to `liberating' the south.

copyright eric margolis 1996

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