			Foreign Correspondent

		      Inside Track On World News
	    By International Syndicated Columnist & Broadcaster
		 Eric Margolis <emargolis@lglobal.com>

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Blundering forward in Asia
By
Eric Margolis 3 June 1996

SAN FRANCISCO -   Americans, who are notoriously fuzzy about 
geography, don't much care about world affairs - except when
occasional thrashings are delivered to irksome Muslim
malefactors, like Iran or Libya.  Discussions of grand
strategy or geopolitics usually produce glazed eyes and
yawns.  

Even so, foreign policy will loom larger than usual  in this
year's elections. Having lost control of the domestic agenda
to Republicans,  President Clinton has recast himself as 
international statesman, and defender of the Pax Americana.
He asks to be judged on his record as a `foreign affairs
president.'  

In Asian policy, I give Clinton a D.      

North Asia  is currently the world's most dangerous place.
On Korea's DMZ, 2 million heavily armed troops are poised
for war.  China and Taiwan came close to a shooting war last
month.  Fortunatly, the Administration handled this crisis
with a skill it has not shown elsewhere. There was even some
wild talk in American and Chinese military circles of
nuclear conflict between the two great powers.   

Now, Washington has declared a trade war on Beijing, 
slapping punitive duties  on $3 billion of Chinese exports
to the US, and threatened additional retaliation for piracy
of intellectual and trademarked property. 

Much of this ugly confrontation with China could and should
have been avoided by quiet diplomacy.  Instead,  the Clinton
Adminstration has resorted for the past three years to good
cop/bad cop tactics in dealing with Beijing, alternately
calling for better relations, or threatening more
punishments.  

As a result, US-Chinese relations are at the lowest point in
twenty years.  This nadir comes at an acutely delicate  time
for China's leadership, which is locked in a bitter power
struggle as the era of Emperor Deng comes to an end.  

China's recent ham-handed bullying of Taiwan was  a
reflection of the factional rivalries in Beijing that are
producing spasms in China's foreign and domestic policies.
China certainly deserves severe censure for allowing
commercial pirates of every kind to operate with impunity. 
But the main reason for today's terrible Sino-American
relations remains the Clinton Administration's use of China
as a domestic political football.

Clinton threatened China with sanctions after his key
financial supporters in Hollywood, and others in  Silicon
Valley, made a rumpus over Chinese film, music and software
piracy. He then backed down after US aircraft manufacturers
and other big industries  warned that huge potential sales
to China were being endangered. After textile unions
complained about cheap imports, Clinton once again turned up
the heat on Beijing, but then reduced it when auto makers
warned American vehicles would be excluded from China. 

Washington's yoyo policy toward Japan, a mixture of trade
threats and hasty reconciliations, is also driven by
domestic politics.  The real issue with Japan is not trade,
as Clinton insists, but Asian security.  Except for autos,
US-Japanese trade is not out of balance.  

The Administration should have been pressing Japan to do
three vitally important things:  a. amend its pacifist
Constitution to permit deployment of forces abroad;  b.
assume an active security role in Asia; c. clearly define
the US-Japan security treaty.  

These are urgent matters now that wobbly North Korea  may
either launch a major war,  or implode and collapse.   If
1.2 million North Korean troops hurl themselves southward,
will Japan allow the US to use its military  bases for
offensive operations?  What will Japan do if North Korean
commandos attack US bases in Japan?  Will Japan provide
logistical support for a massive US counter-attack?

And what about North Korea's secret nuclear arsenal,
believed by US intelligence to number 2-3 weapons?  Or the
North's stockpile of weapons-grade plutonium, enough for 10-
20 more weapons.  The Clinton Administration has ducked
these key questions, preferring to paper over the nuclear
issue with aimless talks for fear that Korea erupt in an
election year.

Japan, after pretending for 50 years to be strategically
invisible, must be convinced to re-enter the real world. 
Tokyo must stop hiding behind its `peace' Constitution
barring military action, a document written in distant 1945
by  General Douglas MacArthur. China has nuclear weapons, 
So, eventually, will a united Korea.  Japan, which could
produce nuclear weapons in  under six months,  has got to
face this life and death question. 

Pointless wrangling over trade merely masks urgent strategic
issues, and encourages those in Japanese who want to keep on
pretending that their great nation is an economic giant, but
strategic pygmy.   After massive cuts in defense spending,
the dangerously over-stretched US military can no longer
alone maintain the Pax Americana in the Pacific.  Washington
needs to engage Tokyo in a new, long-term strategy that will
end Japan's self-isolation,  and properly deploy its latent
power to stabilize an increasingly shaky Asia.


Watching fast deteriorating relations between Washington and
Beijing, one is reminded that most wars - the recent Gulf
War being an excellent example - often ignite  after a long,
period of stumbling, confusion, miscalculations and
increasingly heated rhetoric.  

The US and China have no major strategic disputes. They
should be comfortable military and economic allies. That
they have blundered into a totally unnecessary 
confrontation says much about the lack of thoughtful
leadership in both Washington and Beijing.

copyright Eric Margolis 1996

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