**  Define the problem  ****
**  Build specifications ****

Subject: Idea 

I think I may have the solution to two of our most basic problems: 

1) How to get commercial products that can be used to survive the PS.
2) How to evaluate what solutions will work and which won't work.

1) Build a generalized specification for each subject we need that we are having 
trouble finding good affordable solutions to. For example: housing, storage, 
water purification, hydroponics, radio communications, push-pull carts, tires, 
light bulbs, etc.  These specs are then disseminated by those wishing to buy, 
they would request availability and pricing for the items.  For example; we use 
a shelter specification to have housing builders bid on solutions for 
individuals ready to implement or build.  In this way we get the help of the 
manufacturing industry to look at and build what we want to buy.  Win-win for 
both.

The specification would be stated in general terms, in that it wouldn't tell how 
to build it, would say what it's functions are, what it must withstand, and what 
it needs to produce. 

2) Now, in order to build a good specification, we need to fully understand the 
problem we are trying to solve.  What is the limits of what will happen during 
the polar shift.  What is the most likely description of what we need to protect 
against. 

I have noted that we have been thrashing around and accumulating shelter 
solutions, not knowing what will or won't work.  There is common workable 
technology taught in industry to day that says go back and define and analyze 
the problem.  Until we can come to some agreement on the limits as to what we 
are designing the solution for, we will continue to thrash.  We need to further 
define the problem or situation we are going into before we can solve it or 
effectively talk about solutions.  Nancy and the Zetas have done a wonderful job 
of defining what we are up against, now a little more analysis, definition and 
clarification is needed.  I will show by example, how this analysis, description 
of the problem could develop in another e-mail. 


 ------------------- 

Subject: PS further defined/analysis

I have acclimated a current understanding, or a semi-educated starting point 
estimation.  I respectfully submit this strawman to kick around and get further 
corrected, and refined then I suspect the solutions on all fronts will become 
much easier to be arrived at and agreed upon.

There is nothing sacred about the following, as more is learned it should be 
updated.  We should all push to polish, and narrow down our working assumptions.  
If possible, the Zetas should be asked to confirm, or change any or all of the 
following detailed assumptions.  Having the Zetas compare this data to there 
computer simulation, and knowledge would be invaluable. 

Strongest shaking to occur just after the polar shift which should take about 1 
Hr or less.  Shaking to reach a maximum amplitude 1 to 1.5 Hr. after the shift 
starts.  Biggest jolts coming from crust sliding on top of or in collision with 
crust (subduction, mountain building).

The estimated duration of the strongest shaking to last 30 minutes before it 
drops by a magnitude of one on the Richter scale.  Three hours of high magnitude 
shaking.  12 Hr. duration before shaking settles down to less than magnitude 6.  
Able to barely crawl around after about 9-10 Hr.  Earth in continuous shaking 
for approximately 12 days.  Quakes continue off an on for 10-20 years after.  
Maximum of 11.5 magnitude (amplitude) earth quakes with exponential decline with 
time. 

Depending on the location on the planet: Average maximum expected amplitude of 
motion vertical (up and down) of the ground to be 100 ft to 200 ft with a 
maximum of 5 G acceleration.  This applies to something fastened to bedrock.  
Maximum expected amplitude of the motion of the ground in a horizontal (side to 
side) direction to be 200 ft to 300 ft with a maximum of 9 to 10 G acceleration.

Note:  "G" is a useful measure of force exerted when something is vibrating. 1 G 
= 32 ft/sec^2 or acceleration of gravity - practically speaking 1 G produces a 
force of acceleration or deceleration equal to it's current weight - 2 Gs would 
produce a force equal to twice it's current weight and so on.

With a vertical acceleration of 5 G anything loose on the surface will leave the 
surface of the bed rock which is vibrating, this includes sand, hard clay soil, 
domes, and other objects not securely fastened to bed rock.  As a worst case say 
a dome is accelerated up for an amplitude of 200 ft at up to 5 G acceleration.  
The Bed rock stops and reverses direction.  The dome being not tied to bedrock 
will still keep going up and will reach a maximum of say 250 to 300 ft and began 
to fall at 1 G.  Meanwhile Bedrock has gone down to the bottom of it's amplitude 
and reversed its direction, and on it's way up it hits the falling dome 
instantly reversing it's direction, picking it up to then be tossed again into 
the air again.  The result is extreme jolts, and decelerations, being cushioned 
only by the loose dirt, thus the summary statement by the Zetas that our 
equipment must be able to withstand a drop of 500 ft.

Vertical accelerations of over 1G bedrock vibration will last for an estimated 
10 to 15 minutes.  During this time objects will be leaving the earth's surface.  
After this Clay, soil and sand due to liquefaction (acts like a liquid) causes 
sloshing back and forth in a wave action sometimes engulfing objects floating on 
the surface.  This lasts for about 3 Hr. 

Winds to build up during and after the time of the actual motion of the earth to 
an average maximum of 350 miles/Hr.  High winds expected for 2 weeks to 6 weeks 
depending on the temperature shift for the area.  The greater the temperature 
shift of the region would causes winds for a longer period of time.  Some areas 
near long term melting ice will experience strong winds for several years.

Any standing structure will need to withstand flying objects of various sizes 
averaging from half a pound up to occasional as large tree trunk size, with up 
to 2 weeks duration.  The closer to the ground the slower the wind, but also, 
the potential for the larger blown or rolling objects.

Temperature to be in transition for several weeks to 6 months depending on the 
amount of latitude change for the given location.  Due to cloud cover 
temperature to be warmer at night and cooler in days to stabilize at 12 degree 
Fahrenheit (7 degree Centigrade) below the current average for the season at any 
given ending latitude.  This would be due to lack of sun light, the cloud cover, 
and melting poles. 

Rain, sleet, or snow (depending on location) to be continuous for 1-2 months. 
Precipitation to continue to be above normal tapering off to near normal for the 
latitude after about 10-20 years.

The average amount of daylight at midday, (one month after PS) to be equivalent 
to a typical clear 4 watt (115v) night light bulb held about 6 ft away from the 
surface being view in a completely dark room. The amount of light, on a full to 
a new moon night, to be equivalent to the 4 watt bulb about 21 (full moon) to 46 
ft (new moon) away from the surface being viewed. Two years after PS the light 
at midday will improve to become 5 ft (midday), and on a full to new moon night, 
18 to 39 ft.  The trend will improve exponentially, until we have the light we 
have today in 25-30 years. 

The difference in the radius of earth at the pole, and at the equator is about 
13.1 miles (21.4 KM), due to the centrifugal force of rotation at the equate 
making it bulge. This is over twice the height of the highest mountain on the 
planet. If the planet poles shifts position by about 90 degrees then the 
tectonic plates that the north and south poles are on will need to adjust, once 
the planet begins to rotate.  Pressure from the molten liquid, that these plates 
float on, will grow at the old poles. This will cause slippage, and adjustment 
in plates which will cause major earth quakes as the land rises about 13 miles 
at the old poles, and sinks about 13 miles at the new poles.  This I believe to 
be the cause of the near continuous shaking for approximately 12 days as the 
planet begins to rotate. 

Static will make Ham radio communications impossible for 1-2 months for even the 
best of equipment. 

This is just a start, what else can be added to this?
What needs to be corrected?

----------------- 
subject: What does a 500 ft drop mean

Note: For electronics gear the Zetas have recommended a test dropped from 500 ft 
high. If we assume terminal velocity is not reached and air viscosity has no 
slowing effect. If we now assumed there is enough padding to allow for 4" of 
motion before the item completely squashes the padding and assuming the padding 
decelerates the object uniformly throughout the 4" of motion, then:

v = (2GS)^.5 = (2as)^.5 = velocity of free fall of gravity = velocity at start 
of deceleration or solving for a becomes.
a = GS/s = Deceleration
G = gravitational constant 32 ft/sec^2 = 1 G
S = 500 ft
s = distance of 4" = .3 ft.
a = 1Gx500/.3 = 1666 G of force
for s = 1 ft. this becomes
a = 1Gx500/1 = 500 G of force

Note: Free fall - sky divers tell me this is from 120 miles/hr (body horizontal) 
to over 200 miles/hr (body vertical).

Summary: 4" to 1 ft. of padding would provide protection such that each 
component of the electronic unit would experience no less than 1666 to 500 times 
it's own weight in trying to tare the unit apart.  The overall effect of all 
component motion is to attempt to squash the unit flat.

Comment: I hope there is some safety factor built into the Zetas recommendations 
because I would hate to design living quarters to withstand this much G force.  
Not to mention bodies black out and go unconscious at between 5 to 10 G and I 
suspect bodies will begin to fall apart below 30 G.  So if we are going to need 
to withstand 500 Gs or more I doubt anyone would live through it.  There is much 
discrepancy between my expected 10 G max as described in a previous post and 
this number. I suspect sooner or later this will be resolved.   There is the 
possibility of getting high G forces with low amplitude vibration.  This is 
expected and should be easily shielded with the foam used.  The key question 
here is:  What is the G forces for the most destructive amplitudes?  The answer 
to this could then be potentially used to design housing and electronic shock 
isolation.  maybe I don't know enough to ask the right question. Non-linear 
Radom vibrations is a complex subject that I wouldn't even presume to 
understand. the above is just a simple physics look to try and get a feeling for 
what's going on.  

If the calculations are off by a factor of two or more due to free-fall and the 
friction of air, then we still have a lot of G force.  Where is my error.  


 ------------------- 
Human aspect:
The number of gangs to become rapidly less and less with time especially after 
first 6 months. 
roving gangs will be small in size at first, the few that are left, becoming 
bigger, and more deadly as time goes on.   
Depending on the area gangs to be fully handled 6 months to 3 years after ps.
Survival turning point for most will be about 5 years after PS.

 ------------------- 

> After 8 on the Richter scale, THE SCALE DOES BECOME MEANINGLESS.
> you extend the shaking to 2 minutes, 5minutes, 15 minutes:  any
> building
> structure or even large plant(like a tree) will start to come apart at .....
> So which comes first?  The shaking or the tornado winds?

This is really a request for more exact knowledge of what to expect.  Then we 
can build a set of building specification that can be used to get bids from 
various builders.  Eric needs this now so he can get bids from various builders 
and get started building. Note: Just the distribution of this specification on 
the web amongst builders could generate interest in Zetatalk.

The building specification could include what degree of maximum shaking g force 
for horizontal and g force for vertical the structure must withstand and for how 
long.  Along with the maximum wind magnitude.  Along with the likely maximum 
sized objects needing to be deflected from the outside, from the blowing wind.  
Expected outside seasonal temperature range after PS.

-------------------- 
ent: 15 Feb 98
to usgelocial survay

I am doing a building design research project and I found the following 
information:

http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/QUAKES/FactSheets/BetterDesign/
Recordings from the 1971 San Fernando, California, earthquake suggested that 
this limit 
was too low. Data from more recent earthquakes conclusively demonstrate that 
shaking 
within 10 to 15 miles of a magnitude 7 shock commonly exceeds 1/2 g and may top 
1 g. 

What I am looking for is the design limits for a structure to be able to 
withstand a 
magnitude 9 surface earthquake within 10 to 15 miles of the epicenter.   What 
would be 
the maximum horizontal and vertical g-forces, duration, maximum amplitudes, and 
typical vibration base frequencies.   I know these things are rough to estimate 
but one 
could indicate the result as a plus or minus a given amount.    

Do you know how or where I might be able to find this kind of information?



 ------------------- 
http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/QUAKES/FactSheets/BetterDesign/
Recordings from the 1971 San Fernando, California, earthquake suggested that 
this limit was too low. Data from
more recent earthquakes conclusively demonstrate that shaking within 10 to 15 
miles of a magnitude 7 shock commonly exceeds 1/2 g and may top 1 g. 

http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/study/strongmo/boatseek/1906.html#scale
Predictive Intensity Map for the 1906 Earthquake
This is the intensity distribution we would expect for a repeat of the 1906 
earthquake which was a M=8.3 event on the San Andreas fault. These numbers refer 
to the Modified Mercalli Scale.

Discription of the worst effects due to this size earthquake:
X. Most masonry and frame structures destroyed. Some well-built wooden 
structures and bridges destroyed. Serious damage to dams, dikes, embankments. 
Large landslides. Rails bent slightly. 
XI.  Rails bent greatly. Underground pipelines completely out of service.

See: http://www-socal.wr.usgs.gov/jones/ABC_glossary.html
Magnitude

Magnitude is the most commonly reported measure of an earthquake's size. It 
began as a
completely empirical measure defined by Beno Gutenberg and Charles Richter in 
the
1930's. They wanted a quantitative way to compare earthquakes, based on 
instrumental
recordings, independent of the location of the observer. They borrowed the idea 
of a
magnitude scale from astronomers, who used it to classify the brightness of 
stars. They
defined it in terms of the amplitude of ground velocity recorded on a particular
seismograph, scaled by the distance from the instrument to the earthquake. It 
has since
been shown to be proportional to the energy released in the earthquake but the 
energy
goes up with magnitude faster than the ground velocity, by a factor of 32. Thus, 
a
magnitude 6 earthquake has 32 times more energy than a magnitude 5 and almost 
1,000
times more energy than a magnitude 4 earthquake. This does not mean there will 
be 1,000
times more shaking at your house. Bigger earthquakes last longer and release 
their energy
over a much larger area.

"How big was the earthquake? That should be easy. Why do the scientists always 
seem to
have problems coming up with a simple answer to a simple question?" Many
Californians have felt some version of this frustration after each earthquake 
where one
seismologist always seems to be contradicting another. In fact, earthquakes are 
very
complex. Measuring their size is something like trying to determine the "size" 
of an
abstract modern sculpture with only one use of a tape measure. Which dimension 
do you
measure? Seismologists have tried different "dimensions" leading to several 
magnitude
scales. These include local (also sometimes called the Richter scale since it 
was the first
one defined by Richter), surface-wave, body-wave, duration and coda. All these 
scales
measure the amplitude of some aspect of ground motion (velocity or acceleration 
at
different distances and in different frequency bands). 

In recent years, seismologists have developed a new scale, called moment 
magnitude to
describe the size of an earthquake. Unlike other magnitude scales that measure 
only one
part of the ground motion, moment magnitude is based on a physical quantity, 
called
moment, that can be determined either from the geometry of the fault plane or 
from the
total energy recorded on a seismogram. It is equal to the area of the fault 
times the amount
of slip across the fault times the rigidity of the rock. Several recent 
earthquakes have
confirmed that moment determined by geologists measuring the fault in the field 
matches
the moment determined by seismologists from a seismogram. Moment magnitude has
many advantages over other magnitude scales. First, because it uses the complete
seismogram, it doesn't saturate allowing us to measure the largest earthquakes. 
Second,
because it can be determined either instrumentally or from geology, we can use 
it to
measure the size of old earthquakes and compare them to instrumentally recorded 
events.
Third, estimates tend to be more reliable so differences of 0.2 in moment 
magnitude do
mean something (just don't compare with some other type of magnitude).

P-waves

Earthquakes produce three general types of waves (see WAVES) to radiate energy. 
Two
are body waves, which means that they travel through the body of the Earth and 
the other
is surface waves, which means that they travel along the surface of the Earth. 
The two
body waves are called P waves (for Primary) and S waves (for Secondary waves).
P-waves are compressional waves while S waves are shear waves. Shear waves 
cannot
travel through a fluid so P-waves are the only ones that travel through the 
Earth's core
(see WAVES).

P waves travel faster, but S waves are usually 2-3 times larger than the P wave. 
This
leads to the characteristic shape of an earthquake on a seismogram with a small 
P wave
followed by a larger S wave. Because the P wave is traveling faster, the time 
between
the P and S wave increases away from the earthquake. In fact, just like the time 
between
seeing lightning and hearing thunder can be used to estimate the distance to the 
lightning,
the time between the P and S wave can tell you how far away the earthquake is. 
Local
rock type and the depth of the earthquake cause slight variations, but the 
number of
seconds between the P and S wave times 5 is approximately the distance in miles 
to the
earthquake. (Remember that some of that distance may be down.).



 ------------------- 
Sent: 4 Jan 98
ZetaTalk wrote: 

   Yes, humans survive moving 122/hr and stopping if 
  the air bag prevents them going into the dash HARD.  They are moving as fast 
  as the car (substitute earth plate) and when it stops, if they haven't far to 
  move and are padded, they and the electronics should be OK!

Yes, now were talking in the right direction.  Some factors to note:  The G-
force of a 
car crash is depending on stopping distance.  This would be how many feet the 
car 
gets squashed, and how much the object that got run into, moves, or gets 
crunched.  
The following table would apply. 

Stopping "s" distance and amount of G-force experienced: 

  500 ft drop 
   122 MPH      G-force 
   s-Distance   Deceleration 
     .5"        12000G 
     1"          6000G 
     4"          1666G 
     6"          1000G 
     1 ft         500G 
     2 ft         250G 
     5 ft         100G 
    10 ft          50G 
   100 ft           5G 

If a car going 122 MPH hits a brick wall, and crunches the front of the car.  
Lets 
assume as a worst case the wall doesn't move, and the squash of the car distance 
summed with the amount of squash of the air bag to be 5 ft, then, the body on an 
average would feel 100 G-force.  Actually I think it would start lower, and 
build up 
to more than this.   This would be due to, harder to squash the last 1 ft, as 
compared to 
the first 1 ft. 

Air bags work because they distribute the G-force over a greater percentage of 
the 
body.  If no air bag a small area of the body must take a large G-force, and 
bones get 
broken.  Note well: The amount of squash of the air bag as compared to the 
squash of 
the car is minimal. 

Air bags to protect a body during a PS would take some thought.  Using only one 
bag 
would not be recommended.  If you knew the direction of the jolt and it was the 
same 
each time then you could position your air bag between you and the jolt, and 
this 
might work.  But, sense the jolt my be vertical, or horizontal you would roll 
off if one 
bag were used.  Many smaller bags tied together may work if each bag can be made 
strong enough.  The thickness of the bag is yet to be determined.  Stunt men 
jump off 
building, and land on very large air bags.  

It seems to me years ago I ran into a study by either the car industry, or the 
insurance 
companies that estimated body survival rate of car crashes with the two 
variables 
stopping distance and speed.   If anyone knows how to get there hands on 
something 
like this - please do post it. 

Right now I am thinking it would be better to let our survival quarters slide 
around as 
it needs.   Once the horizontal G-force is greater than friction then it will 
break loose 
and slide.   The only problem with this is you don't want the wind blowing you 
around, also.  Reason - you could end up anywhere, and you might hit something 
real 
hard, going say 300 miles/hr. 

Nancy,  since I received no response to my last paragraph on the last post, I am 
going 
to, for now, assume the 500 ft jolt criteria apples to everything until I hear 
differently.   This would be independent of whether the object is loose to be 
dashed 
around, or fastened to bed rock.   I am also going to assume 500 ft jolt is the 
correct 
number to design our survival quarters to. 

I did find the following information:
http://www.public.asu.edu/~lifegrd/hp/stat.html 

As vehicle speed increases from 0 to 40 mph, the rate of injury in an accident 
increases by 50%--and doubles again from 40 to 60 mph. 

Safety belts, when worn, reduce the number of deaths by 45%, and serious injury 
by 
50%.




------------------- 
subject: re: 500ft drop
sent: 31 Dec 97

Lets review now. The next two quotes are what we are attempting to understand, 
yes?

from "ZetaTalk: Safety Measures"
see: http://www.zetatalk3.com/poleshft/p48.htm
(Begin ZetaTalk[TM])
Wrap everything as though it were going to be dropped from a height of 500 feet.  
Test this, and see if your device survives.
(End ZetaTalk[TM]) 

(Begin ZetaTalk[TM]) Tue, 9 Dec 1997 23:06:25 EST
The worst case situation should prepare for an impact after being dashed 
equivalent to a drop of 500 feet.  This presumes no protections around the 
object or person to prevent impact injury.
(End ZetaTalk[TM])

Nancy wrote: 
<< Earlier the Zetas said that the 500 foot thing was a totally unprotected 
dashing of a device.  No walls, no restraints.  It's on a picnic table in the 
middle of a field.  The jolt comes.  It flies.  Now, if you limit the fling with 
a wall, or a padded wall - not 500 feet.  If you limit the fling with a padding 
around it, not 500 foot unprotected dash.>>

If on a picnic table, assuming the picnic table is fastened to the earth and a 
jolt is big enough for an object to fly off occurs.  What this means is the 
inertia of the object was holding it in place and the picnic table experienced 
the greater G-force as compared to the object.  Now if the object falls 500 ft 
and hits the ground then we have satisfied the Zeta criteria.  But, lets assume 
it doesn't.  It rolls or slides until it hit something that stops it.  Now, for 
the Zeta 500 ft drop equivalent force to take effect the relative motion between 
the moving object and what stops it must be going 122 miles/hr.

Now, as worst case imagine the bouncing back and forth between two walls 
fastened securely to the earth in such an optimum frequency that the opposing 
wall is moving fast toward the object as the object is fast approaching the 
wall.  This would be as viewed from a theoretical remote unmoving view point.  
The bottom line is to satisfy the Zata's 500 ft drop criteria the relative 
motion of the object to the wall must be going 122 miles/hr.  A 500 ft drop will 
impart a given amount of energy of motion in an object that when it is stopped 
must be dissipated.  The high school formulas of Physics as given in the first 
report give the resulting G-force in relation to stopping distance.  

If our electronics must survive this then the, housing and our bodies must 
survive the same jolt. Do you know of any human bodies that will survive 
traveling 122 miles/hr and hitting an object? 

The bottom line: You have me confused by saying essentially it not going to be 
as bad as what I am saying. Yet I think I am saying what is consistent to what 
the Zetas are saying which is something else, much stronger. I believe we can 
build to survive this but before we start I just want to be absolutely clear 
that 500 ft drop is the correct criteria. Next we need to know whether this 
applies to both free to move objects and fixed to the earth objects or only one 
and not the other. If it applies to free to move objects only then we need to 
know what the criteria would be when fix to bead rock so as to move with the 
earth's plate. This is so a housing specification can be built. We could also 
ask whether it's better to build a structure that is able to slide around or 
fasten to bead rock or something else.


 
 ------------------- 
Subject: body protection

If we can assume that we must prepare for the equivalent of a 500 ft drop is 
valid.  Then, if two bodies are lying holding onto each other arms warped around 
each lying on 6" of padding, what can we expect?  If one laid an arm on this 
padding and placed somewhere along the arm (any place) a 2 lb wight and then 
recived a jolt that caused a 1000+ G-force (500 ft drop) so as to compress the 
arm agenst the padding.  What happens?  That part of the arm will experence 1 
ton of force trying to break it especialy if the fome is stiff and doing it's 
job of protecton.  Now muliply this by a factor of 10-50 to get the wight of 
part of anothers body laying on that arm or leg.  I don't know any arms that 
would hold up under this 10-50 tons of force. 

In like manner, two heads in close contact with this much force and shaking can 
be expected to beat each other up, no matter how one trys to keep them 
seporated.  A baby held on the stomuck of a mother protecting it, will get 
uncontrolably squshed if the mother roles into a berror (baby between barror and 
mother).   The mother can be injored from the G-force of the baby just by 
staying on the stommuck. 

The safest for all concerned is to provide a way so that bodies are keep 
seporate during the major part of the shaking.  Loving, and hugging can go on 
after the major shaking is over.  Keep in mind that under this much foce that 
arms and legs can fly around uncontorlably and that they should not land on 
anything that could harm themselfs or others.

To me at this time the best solution is beging to look like a hevvly padded 
strong open rectangular (coffen) shaped contaner with a strong open net gently 
holding the body in place.   This unit would be bolted down perpandular to the 
predicted motion of shift. 

For those with frail bones or who want better protection then:  Get a body 
custom cast done while laying on your back out of plaster of paris.  Make a 
postive of your body and then make a heavy fiberglass mold that can be lined on 
the inside with fome that you can lay in.  Make it deap (tapored) so that it 
comes above the top of the body.  Alow, for the thikness of the fome so that it 
is easy to get the body into and out.  The fiberglass resulting mold would be 
filled in on the bottom to make a flat surface that would then be placed on 
thick fome all inside a larger rectangular (coffen) shaped open box.  Make sure 
there is fome on all sides and that the fiberglass mold is restraned from 
flyling up in the air or leaving the bottom.  This is so it will not tip on 
horizontal jolts.
