tadd mcmc methods - cosmo - front and backend for Markov-Chain Monte Carlo inversion of cosmogenic nuclide concentrations
(HTM) git clone git://src.adamsgaard.dk/cosmo
(DIR) Log
(DIR) Files
(DIR) Refs
(DIR) README
(DIR) LICENSE
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(DIR) commit 4769723624cf47e9a1c827ebe1388971f8616e2c
(DIR) parent c61d24deab6ce81dcb4e8b538cab571d035beb2e
(HTM) Author: Anders Damsgaard <anders.damsgaard@geo.au.dk>
Date: Fri, 27 Nov 2015 15:34:25 +0100
add mcmc methods
Diffstat:
M pages/methods.html | 26 ++++++++++++++++++++++++--
1 file changed, 24 insertions(+), 2 deletions(-)
---
(DIR) diff --git a/pages/methods.html b/pages/methods.html
t@@ -52,13 +52,35 @@
<div id="mcmc" class="section scrollspy">
<h3 class="header blue-text">
Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) basics</h3>
- <p>bla bla</p>
+ <p>The inversion problem of turning observed TCN
+ concentrations into erosion histories is handled using a
+ conventional Metropolis-Hastings MCMC approach where the
+ model parameters are constrained between fixed model
+ parameter bounds specified by the user. Erosion rates
+ (ε<sub>int</sub>, ε<sub>gla</sub>), which
+ may vary over several orders of magnitude, are specified
+ with uniform probability across the logarithmic parameter
+ interval. The temporal parameter (<i>t</i><sub>degla</sub>)
+ and climate record threshold value
+ (δ<sup>18</sup>O<sub>threshold</sub>) is specified
+ with uniform probability across the linear
+ parameter interval. The user specifies the bounds
+ of the model parameters, which define the model space.
+ </p>
</div>
<div id="mcmcwalker" class="subsection scrollspy">
<h4 class="header blue-text light">
What is a MCMC walker?</h4>
- <p>bla bla</p>
+ <p>
+ forward responses are computed based on an initial set of
+ model parameters that is proposed using the
+ Metropolis-Hastings technique. A burn-in phase of 1000
+ iterations is first used to make a crude initial search of
+ the model space. This step is followed by a more detailed
+ and local search of the model space based on the best-fit
+ model parameters from the burn-in phase.
+ </p>
</div>
<div id="twostage" class="section scrollspy">