b06 Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Mon Apr 19 2004 07:07 pm


Friday I said I didn't trust that Buy signal.  Today the market got
above the line only for the last 45 minutes or so.  It closed up a point
and change, and that's what's important to my formula.  The Bullish news
is: volume was down -17% below average.  So buyers were in short supply,
and those who were persuaded to buy didn't have to "pay full price".
Holders weren't particularly anxious to sell anyway.

Greenspan will speak this week, no doubt confirming the Fed's continued
willingness to be "patient".  However, the Conference Board's Leading
and Coincident Economic Indicators were higher.  The problem is an
improving economy leads to inflation and the Fed raising interest rates.
Current market prices are based on current interest rates.  If the
economy stays sluggish that leads to earnings not meeting expectations,
and current prices are based on notably improved earnings and
projections.  So good news is bad news, and bad news is bad news.  Pile
an election season on top of that.  I don't see any good news for the
market in the forseeable future.  Time to spend our time doing our
homework rather than struggling to make a buck on the Street.

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 <___      __>_      __|_      _<__      <___      ___|     04/13
 _<__      __|_      _|__      __<_      <___      ___|     04/14
 __<_      __|_      _|__      __|_      <___      __<_     04/15
 __<_      __|_      __|_      __>_      _<__      __<_     04/16
 __>_      __|_      __|_      _>__      _>__      __<_     04/19

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  04/16/04 S&P:    1134
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paul.rogers@angelfire.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... Columbus didn't discover America, he invaded it. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) . 0