a5a Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Thu Dec 05 2002 06:36 pm

I saw in today's IBD Bill Gross, manager of Pimco's big bond fund, is
saying the the Bull Market in Bonds is over.  I warned you of that here
months ago, most recently at the last Fed rate cut.  You should expect
Bond Funds to be losers--new bonds recently bought by the fund aren't
paying much, and there are no more rate cuts expected.  So their
earnings will be limited and they will lose principal.  The same can be
said, though to a lesser degree for Balanced Funds and others that have
significant bond holdings.  If you're holding recently bought Bonds
independently, plan on holding them till maturity.  You should have
bought them for income, take it.  You're going to lose money on
principal if you try to sell them before interest rates fall to these
levels again.

Learn this fact:  You can lose money in Bonds and Bond Funds just as
surely as you can in Stocks and Stock Funds!

As far as today's Market Action goes, Prices continued to fall, as did
Volume.  The McClellan Oscillator dipped below the line, meaning most
stocks on the NYSE have been following the Index down.

Bulls would like to see lower Volume on down days, but in this case the
Oscillator confirms the falling Prices.

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _|__      _>__      __>_      <___      __|_      __>_     11/29
 _|__      _>__      __>_      __<_      __|_      __>_     12/02
 _|__      _>__      __|_      _<__      __|_      ___>     12/03
 _<__      _|__      __|_      __<_      __<_      ___>     12/04
 _<__      _|__      __|_      _|__      _<__      ___>     12/05

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  11/12/02 S&P:    883
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '00-'01 and my investment strategy
study at my websites:
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
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