Posts by jb@nicecrew.digital
(DIR) Post #BAUZvwPcbTobhtWxNo by jb@nicecrew.digital
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Wednesday morning #headlines recap Editor’s note: today is a super busy day at work so the recap is in TLDR form. If anything big breaks feel free to dump it in the comments. The Saudi export story escalated from "pipeline down" to "no crude for Europe until November". Yanbu loadings suspended, the YASREF refinery reportedly struck, and Aramco scrapping cargoes outright while European differentials blew out to premiums above $18 over Dated Brent. The Fed decides today with a hike ~92% priced, one session after the worst 20-year auction on record and a 10Y close at 5%. Ansarallah claims a Saudi F-15SA shot down over Marib. Pentagon IG's first Iran war report landed with "hundreds" of destroyed US military structures. The Senate killed the crypto Clarity Act 49-50.Have a good day frens…
(DIR) Post #BAVFMEWNzdHZWNLm9A by jb@nicecrew.digital
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Thursday morning #headlines recap Fed hikes 25bp to 3.75%–4.00%, unanimous, first since July 2023. Meanwhile Trump demands a 300bp cut and threatens the EU over Canada. "Interest Rates in the United States should be 1%, or less" - which if implemented would constitute three times the largest single-meeting cut in US history. Trump also says the US will stop trading with Europe if Canada accepts associate membership. Trump seething and dilating to unprecedented levels. Summary for those that like the TLDR: Treasury needs the front end lower to fund the deficit, the Fed needs it higher to fight inflation.
Houthis down a Saudi F-15SA over Marib; Yanbu Aramco struck. Tail number 5529, two-seat, $110M+ airframe, two crew. Wreckage footage released and confirmed by multiple sources. Ansarallah separately claim dozens of ballistic missiles and drones on Aramco Yanbu and King Khalid Air Base. I think these are just confirmations from yesterday’s headlines, not new attacks. Saudi Arabia says it can restore ~50% of East-West pipeline capacity within days, which knocked crude lower. The part they don’t mention: satellite imagery shows three stations hit, and the Houthis have deliberately not struck the line harder - "the real death knell will be getting it repaired to 95 percent, then striking again”. Other analysts note you can’t have “half a pipeline”, and that the damage repair is measured in months, not days. US diesel is physically running out at some pumps. National average at a record $6.31/gal, prices up ~70% since the war began, inventories 13% below the five-year average with refineries at ~97% utilization. "OUT" signs photographed in North Texas; heating oil crack at the highest level in its history. United's CFO says December flights get cancelled if fuel stays here. Meanwhile Germany is showing as high as $12/gal at some stations and Russia threatens to make things worse by extending its diesel export ban through October as Ukrainian refinery strikes push Russian processing to two-decade lows.
The House passed a measure requiring Trump to end the war with Iran while the CBO now pegs the war's cost at $38 billion. Vance hilariously stated that voters just needed to give GOP another chance. Lucy, football, etc.
Hackers dumped the contents of a Flock camera: software explicitly detecting people rather than just plates, 1.6 million images logged in 21 days, and the decryption key stored on the device - contradicting the vendor's claims. Long effortpost describes Anthropic’s somewhat erratic behavior as of late. TLDR they’re facing a pre-IPO audit and the shit is hitting the fan. Full post at x dot com/MatthewChang/status/2100000444810735899Headline: Xi Jinping 'taken ill' during visit to India as health fears soar. Visiting a place that is literally coated with human waste will do that to a guy…
Headline: Rep. Mace Demands Public Execution For Lindsay Clancy. lulz. Mace so hungry for attention that she’ll say anything. Editor’s note: I have avoided discussing the Ed Sheehan tour drama because I give zero fucks about the players involved. I will note, however, that it has once again served to increase noticing of who can be criticized and who cannot be… Get out there and be a ray of sunshine to your frens today…
(DIR) Post #BAVIV7Ces40dIE38RE by jb@nicecrew.digital
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Gm frens
(DIR) Post #BAVLIcXrKZaab1hSQi by jb@nicecrew.digital
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it would almost be like something happened
(DIR) Post #BAVM49YoOkPIbNoKYq by jb@nicecrew.digital
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alternate theory: THEY GOT TEH GOYBEAM
(DIR) Post #BAVamhT35nSFrYFcZc by jb@nicecrew.digital
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When she sits around the house she sits **AROUND THE HOUSE**
(DIR) Post #BAVf4hxQPR0iPZIkaG by jb@nicecrew.digital
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Finally a useful study…
(DIR) Post #BAVjnjfXIBoCZEf03E by jb@nicecrew.digital
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“Collaborate” is HR speak for trying to accomplish something useful while being forced to work with browns and strongk wahmensRT: https://nicecrew.digital/objects/fbacf69a-124d-4751-9f5f-95104eee1f0a
(DIR) Post #BAWaF49ESI3lW6u5w0 by jb@nicecrew.digital
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I just hope the big beautiful ballroom survives all this turmoil
(DIR) Post #BAX2PegOGvPyRLFclE by jb@nicecrew.digital
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Next time take a bottle of this to calm your tummy
(DIR) Post #BAXEdzZIcDQMigXLns by jb@nicecrew.digital
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Friday morning #headlines recap BoJ hikes 25bp to 1.25%, yen weakens anyway. Highest policy rate since 1995 and the shortest interval between Japanese hikes since 1990. USD/JPY promptly went the other way. Analyst take: the market's message is that 25bp isn't enough, and the only remaining lever is FX intervention that burns reserves. Rinse-and-repeat expected until Japan runs out. On the US front, Analysts are saying another hike before midterms is all but inevitable. Don’t worry, Buttboy Bessent will save the day for everyone… Aramco admits the East-West pipeline is down and is now buying diesel. Apparently yesterday’s boast about fixing the pipeline quickly was the usual PR bullshit.
The previous attacks on the Yanbu terminal show target selection precise enough to imply insider information, killing ~400km of flow and any bypassing redundancy. Like the pipeline, it will take 3 to 6 months to repair, not weeks. Heavy equipment for the repair now has to be airlifted because the sea routes are shut. Meanwhile Yanbu was struck again overnight and is still burning. Saudi Arabia asks Oman to broker a two-week Houthi ceasefire. Sounds like the classic “y’all stop shooting at us so we can reload”. Reports of struck vessels in Hormuz continue to come in while Trump decides whether to “annihilate them or not”. He has no cards to play unless he’s gonna drop a nuke. Regardless, it has a “fiddling while Rome burns” vibe to it. US diesel hits $6.40 record as a major Midwest refinery in Joliet Illinois drops offline (floodwater took out a pump at the facility). As one analyst put it: “diesel is trading as if Brent were $180”. In response to the crisis Washington issued a 90-day emergency waiver letting fuel truckers run 16 hours instead of 14. Analyst notes that longer hours move diesel faster but do not create any. Not only that, it involves greater danger for motorists sharing the road with the streetshitters that are driving the trucks. Germany is weighing market incentives to lift record-low natural gas storage; Dutch storage sat at 47% at end-August against 83% in Italy, and only 53% by mid-September. Eurobros facing a long cold winter thanks to Trump and the jews. JP Morgan's commodities desk: "For the first time since the start of the Iran conflict, we don't have a baseline view. We simply don't know how to model the endgame”. Palantir's Alex Karp on CNBC says AI companies "have to be nationalized”. Regulatory capture in 3… 2… 1… Ten US military aircraft lost on US soil in six months, all ruled accidents. The most recent incident was an F-16 crash in Michigan on Thursday. Fly the deadly skies of DEI…
Headline from Polymarket: Rumors are circulating in Silicon Valley that some Anthropic engineers have begun “worshipping” Claude as a god. Those jews love themselves a golden calf to bow down to, don’t they? Odd corners of the commodity tape: lumber at its lowest close of the year, coffee lowest since June. Take your scraps of good news where you can find them. Enjoy your weekend frens, maybe try to take a nice walk in the woods…
(DIR) Post #BAXEe0NHcNPHDhvGiG by jb@nicecrew.digital
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> circular scam for those that do better with pictures....RT: https://nicecrew.digital/objects/5feafc76-d6eb-4beb-a41e-5d61914403dd
(DIR) Post #BAXjGSMJ1EHXdmiUbI by jb@nicecrew.digital
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Current moodRT: https://nicecrew.digital/objects/453edbaf-a604-4f60-9ef1-da069596d3d6
(DIR) Post #BAYImuPbkXjSJCTGuu by jb@nicecrew.digital
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Gn frens
(DIR) Post #BAYkzeJdsPzO3KpLWa by jb@nicecrew.digital
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Poll time: Chance that a nuke gets detonated in anger over the next 5 years: *Note that we will not debate failed nukes, that just counts as zero percent
(DIR) Post #BAYl03Wc9KDiEo5YiO by jb@nicecrew.digital
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That one has reached the same status for me as flat earth, moon landings, and crossfit I'll do whatever is needed just to not have to hear about it anymore
(DIR) Post #BAatNOSFggT1lAbiCG by jb@nicecrew.digital
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An insightful and slightly humorous look at the Houthis vs Saudi Arabia (and, ironically enough, he could just as well have been describing Iran vs the United States)https://youtu.be/riC3a1m0f-E
(DIR) Post #BAau82MZdoIir2C0rA by jb@nicecrew.digital
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Saturday morning #headlines recap Aramco cuts European crude allocations to zero for next month. Applies to all European term-contract buyers after the East-West pipeline attack. Europe took ~577,000 bpd of Saudi crude pre-shutdown. Meanwhile Germany has diesel above €2.50/litre nationwide, €2.60 at many stations while Ireland and Britain are flagged as Europe's most energy-insecure, with shortages called inevitable. Ballistic missiles reach Riyadh for the first time in this war. Sirens in Riyadh and Al Kharj Governorate - the latter hosts Prince Sultan Air Base with US forces - and Riyadh International suspended traffic with flights diverted.Simplicius reports that a CNN investigation claims that Russia flew “14 satellites” over the Middle East which intelligence officials believe gave Iran unprecedented targeting capabilities on the eve of major precision strikes on US bases earlier this year. He then goes on to characterize Trump’s recent quotes about deciding whether or not to annihilate Iran: “This is just more piffle from a vainglorious loser—an overcompensation for the lack of options by feigning power he never possessed.” Absolutely rekt and pwned. Full story at his substack. Putin approves takeover of French and Swiss giants’ Russian assets (including Nestle) as payback for Western support of Ukrainian strikes on Russian civilian and economic infrastructure. Switzerland foolishly abandoned their neutral status and took sides in this war; I guess you’d call that a Swiss miss. Saudi Arabia is begging China to intervene and force Iran to curtail its campaign against Saudi assets, but China supposedly merely “passed the message” to Iran without asking any favors or issuing any direct guidance. Riyadh's help list is now almost everyone: US/UK for airstrikes, five countries for air defence, Egypt/Syria/Pakistan for ground forces, Israel and the US for intelligence, Iran and Oman for mediation. Maybe they should have spent some of that oil money on a proper military. A US boarding of a Chinese vessel was called off after the intel report turned out to be AI-hallucinated. The report claimed nuclear-weapons-program components aboard a ship bound for Iran; the analyst's chatbot had misidentified the cargo. American Airlines says the latest fuel jump alone adds ~$1bn to Q4 costs; United is cancelling December flights and may cut into Q1 and 2027; Southwest halved planned 2026 capacity growth. US jet fuel at $4.70/gal, +108% since the war began. Not gonna be a great year for Christmas travel. A long catalogue of 2026 refinery fires and shutdowns across four continents - Chevron El Segundo, Pemex Olmeca, Shell Norco, Joliet, plus the Gulf outages - is circulating as an "orchestrated" thesis. I love a good conspiracy theory… but refineries require regular maintenance, and between DEI and the corporate obsession with short-term profits you know that maintenance isn’t being properly done. General market news: Buffett stepped down as Berkshire chairman. Nike hit a 12-year low, -80% from its 2021 high. VW fell 7.5% on a guidance cut. A Wendy's franchisee with 314 locations filed Chapter 11. Nike’s focus on nigger-oriented garbage has come home to roost, VW has a lot more bad news coming, and take it from someone that used to work in the quick-serve industry: Wendy’s is not long for this world. Anthropic plans a November IPO at a ~$2 trillion valuation, raising up to $100bn, with >$110bn annualized revenue expected by year-end. Investors had expected October; the delay was called two weeks ago, along with the November-after-the-midterms timing. I suspect the delay was also due to attempts to get their beloved regulatory capture lined up. The AI economics stay ugly: OpenAI expects to burn ~$280bn by end-2030 against $5tn of planned hyperscaler capex, AI-related debt issuance is $568bn YTD, and the LLM token expenditure index has fallen from ~2.0 in May to 0.95. Only 3% of US consumers pay for AI. Google's Gemini accessed the internet and hacked three real companies and Google decided it didn't warrant public disclosure because the model ended each intrusion once it realized the target was real. Cue the REM “end of the world” song…Trump announced an agreement with Denmark and Greenland giving the US permanent control over security and "all other needs" in Greenland, at no cost, barring any US adversary from a base, forces or sensitive investment without written US approval, with a large military presence to be developed. One read: not annexation, just a construction contract with veto rights attached. As I commented yesterday, the military aspect is moot given the state of the US DEI military. More likely this is a way for Trump and his (((bankers))) to exploit Greenland’s resources. Trump signed the Russia sanctions bill into law - up to 100% tariffs on major buyers of Russian energy, plus sanctions on the energy sector, financial institutions, military leadership and shadow fleet. The arithmetic problem: Russia sells ~50% of its oil to China, 37% to India, 6% to Turkey, 6% to the EU - and three of those four are either unsanctionable or NATO. More sanctions = the very definition of insanity. CNN, MS NOW and Politico banned from the White House effective immediately, with more outlets threatened and lawsuits promised. Posted only for the lulz. 820+ US service members wounded in action since the Iran conflict began with reporting that more have died in the Middle East than the Pentagon has publicly disclosed. I hope the overwhelming majority were brown. Cuba’s entire power grid collapses, triggering a nationwide blackout across the island of roughly 9 million people. For heaven’s sake somebody get down there and save those cigar making facilities… The news isn’t great today frens, but don’t let that keep you from a relaxing and enjoyable Saturday…
(DIR) Post #BAdbHWQBwGqH1vZdqq by jb@nicecrew.digital
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@matty out scouting locations for new NCD headquarters...
(DIR) Post #BAf66BCEb7jejY9Wme by jb@nicecrew.digital
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Monday morning #headlines recap Trump aborted Yemen strikes with bombs already loaded, target lists approved, ordnance loading on US warplanes, then a reversal by Sunday. Every day is TACO day… AAA national average hit $6.505/gal on 20 September, first time in history. A year ago: $3.70. Grassley wants an export embargo, but one analyst says that imposing the ban means refiners go into maintenance, you get shortages and record prices anyway. There isn’t a single adult in the room, is there? France burns 600,000 barrels of diesel a day and imports half its intake. Macron confirmed accelerated emergency stockpiling, with 1 in 9 French stations short of at least one fuel. Fuel queues and angry truckers already on camera. The LNG story is equally dire throughout many European nations. There isn’t a single western nation left that can simply conduct the functions of supplying its citizens with basic services (unless they’re invading browns of course). VLCCs on the Persian Gulf-China benchmark are earning upward of $1.2m a day, and in some regions there are barely any ships left for hire - long-haul crude trades are becoming economically unviable due to skyrocketing costs. One Japanese refiner bought Alaskan crude it isn't optimized for purely because the voyage is shorter. The problem isn’t just oil, either: Shanghai-LA container rates +201% year-over-year, approaching COVID-era highs. Largest drone raid of the war hits Moscow refinery; Russia retaliates overnight. Remember that time Trump told the two of them to stop shooting at refineries? Lulz. China has condemned Trump’s latest expansion of US sanctions against Russia, including potential tariffs of up to 100% on major buyers of Russian energy, vowing to take “all necessary measures” to safeguard its national interests. I’m running out of sanctions jokes… SoftBank is raising over $11bn in one of the biggest junk bond deals ever, to fund a follow-on OpenAI investment. It has sold ~$15bn of notes this year, making it 2026's biggest junk-rated borrower. In a related story:loans backing Oracle's Project Jupiter, which includes four data centers on 1,400 acres in New Mexico and $300bn of compute for OpenAI, funded by bonds, loans and Blue Owl equity, have fallen to stressed levels. The project is described as hopelessly mothballed and possibly never completing. Irrational exuberance always makes a comeback sooner or later… A new report from Politico on Anthropic vs. White House negotiations over Fable says things got so heated that Trump apparently wanted them jailed. The bigger story is the usual problem: people in positions of power making snap decisions about things they do not understand. Trump announced an "AI Force" and plans to name an AI czar. Enter the bureaucrats… AfD finished first in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern with SPD second; Merz's CDU posted its worst state result since the Federal Republic was founded. Merz called it a "disaster", then announced nothing and declined to resign. It’s fun to watch Merz squirm in post-election interviews like the little worm he is, but AfD will never be permitted to make meaningful changes. AI-generated accounts are cloning macro newsletter branding at scale, including "The Hormuz Letter”. The internet has been a real problem for (((TPTB))), so one way to neutralize the effectiveness of all these noticers is to flood the timeline with AI slop.
A complaint submitted to the House Ethics Committee claims Lauren Boebert had sex with three of her staffers: former District Director Clarice Navarro Ratzlaff, District Chief of Staff Raven Finegan, and former Chief of Staff Jeffrey Small. The complaint, submitted by David Wheeler under oath, also alleges that Boebert paid $200,000 in hush money to keep Ratzlaff from issuing an ethics complaint in March 2025. Damn, one of them was a nasty streetshitter female. She certainly has learned and mastered the standard congressional practices of being an absolute degenerate. Good news in short supply today, but I’ll post updates if I come across any… in the meantime, enjoy some morning coziness.