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The Blast - July 30, 2025 [1]

['The Texas Tribune']

Date: 2025-08 

BREAKING DOWN THE NEW REDISTRICTING PROPOSAL

State Rep. Todd Hunter dropped the House’s first draft for the potential mid-decade redistricting, and it comes with some surprises.

The bottom line is that Republicans have seemingly found a way to get President Donald Trump the five seats he wants without putting GOP incumbents at risk, assuming Texas’ rightward swing holds.

The proposed maps would result in 30 Trump districts and eight districts won by former Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump would have carried all 30 of those districts by more than 10 points. The tightest district would be TX-34, which Trump would have won by 10.1 points.

Creating five GOP seats would create some upward mobility for Republicans, and force several Democrats to make tough choices.

Rio Grande Valley

Republicans hope to flip two seats out of the Valley.

TX-28, currently held by U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar, D-Laredo, would shift from a Trump +7.3 district to a Trump +10.4 district. TX-34, currently held by U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, D-McAllen, would shift from a Trump +4.4 district to a Trump +10.1 district. That would be enough for Gonzalez to have lost in 2024, but not enough for Cuellar to lose.

But the Valley redraw makes it clear Republicans are banking on the 2024 trend holding. In 2022, Cuellar won his current seat by 13.3 points. Under the proposed district lines, former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke would’ve beaten Gov. Greg Abbott by 10.4 points in 2022. Abbott would’ve carried the proposed Gonzalez seat by 1.3 points. Abbott would’ve carried TX-15, held by U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz, R-Edinburg, by only 6.2 points.

Former U.S. Rep Mayra Flores, R-Los Indios, is currently challenging Cuellar after two unsuccessful races against Gonzalez. Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina, who recently switched parties to join the Republicans, has got his eyes on the new proposal. Candidates up against Gonzalez include Eric Flores.

North Texas

Republicans hope to flip one seat in the D-FW area.

As it stands, Democratic U.S. Reps. Julie Johnson of Farmers Branch and Marc Veasey of Fort Worth are in a crunch. The proposal would put them into districts Trump won by double digits. One Harris district would open up in the south side of D-FW, but neither share much area with Johnson’s or Veasey’s current seats.

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[1] Url: https://thetexastribune.beehiiv.com/p/the-blast-july-30-2025-ee17aed1be25e665

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