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Tet Offensive Circa 2026 [1]

['Thom Hartmann', 'Greg Dworkin']

Date: 2026-08-24  

I was in high school when the North Vietnamese army launched their Tet Offensive in South Vietnam. To say it shocked everyone is an understatement. Up until then, the American people were told we were winning the war. To be fair, I think high U.S. Government officials, both political and military, also believed that, along with much of the Press. The Tet Offensive was huge in scale, shocked everyone, and tore the scales from everyone’s eyes. The North Vietnamese were still full of fight, and it was obvious our assessment of the war was faulty. The entire purpose of North Vietnam’s Tet Offensive was political, and was designed to show the American public the war was unwinnable. In retrospect, the Tet Offensive was the turning point of the war, and the beginning of the end for America in Vietnam.

I think Iran is in a similar situation to North Vietnam just prior to the Tet Offensive. Militarily the United States has lost the initiative both strategically and tactically. Strategically Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, and shipping cannot go thru the Strait without Iranian consent. The only way the United States could open the Strait would be to mount a major land invasion of Iran to occupy that stretch of land. It is a fairly big piece of territory and is very mountainous. A military assault on that scale would take months to prepare, would require a large force, perhaps over 100,000 troops, and could cause heavy American casualties. There is no stomach for such a venture in this country. Even Trump knows such an attempt would be suicide for him politically. Tactically the United States is now short of munitions, which severely constrains what we can do. Because of our poor strategic options and our shortage of munitions, the United States has drifted into a very passive situation militarily and politically.

As long as Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz they will continue to put pressure on the world economically thru the oil markets. However, Iran knows that we will be having elections in early November, and major Iranian attacks just prior to the elections could have a major impact.

I suspect the Iranians are preparing a large military operation timed to occur within six weeks of our elections. And they are capable of making a significant sized attack. Iran manufactures the Shahed drone, an Iranian designed drone they also sell to the Russians. They have also licensed Russia to manufacture Shahed drones. Our little war with Iran has lasted six months now, and I’m sure Iran has been working overtime to manufacture and stockpile a large number of these. And it’s possible Russia would be willing to provide Iran with some of theirs. Although Russia needs them for their own war with Ukraine, the opportunity to weaken the United States via an Iranian attack could be irresistable. In addition to manufacturing missiles, Iran has been improving their intelligence about U.S. bases in the region. No, they don’t have good aerial intelligence, but they have spies all over the Middle East who could collect information on us and our facilities. And they have had six months to prepare.

A large enough Iranian military strike would be impossible to hide from the American people. Hegseth hid the scale of Iranian damage to our bases after the war started, but I don’t think he could do it again, particularly if large numbers of Americans were killed. And I think Iran will prioritize attacks to kill as many Americans as possible. They could also ask their allies in Yemen, the Houthis, to attack tankers in the Red Sea as part of a coordinated operation. And they could also attack our allies, even destroying oil infrastructure elsewhere in the Middle East, putting further pressure on petroleum supplies worldwide and making the scale of Iranian operations impossible for the Trump regime to deny.

From the Iranian point of view, I think six weeks to a month prior to our elections would be the optimum time for an attack. That is enough time for the scope and scale of the Iranian attack to sink in with the American public. And it would allow the opportunity for a second Iranian political trap. Trump would retaliate, of course, and say he has “punished” Iran. But I suspect Iran would hold back enough missiles to launch a second attack, putting the lie to Trump’s assertions. The political ramifications could create a disaster for the Republicans, turning the mid-term elections into a super tsunami for the Democrats, and crippling Trump to the point where he is totally ineffective.

The outlook for our war with Iran is grim. I think Iran will be the winner across the board and we will be far worse off than if we had never started this war. I think Iran will permanently control the Strait of Hormuz and will charge tolls. Iran’s standing in the Middle East will be greatly enhanced. And I think Iran has decided they must develop a nuclear weapon to protect themselves from us, and we will be unable to stop them this time. This has been a major disaster for America, and frankly is what we deserve for electing such a manifestly unfit man as Trump to be our president.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2026/8/24/800088447/community/tet-offensive-circa-2026/

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