(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . August food Security Update [1] ['Dan K'] Date: 2026-08-22 Colorado River Basin The Bureau of Reclamation has released its plan for the Colorado river for the next ten years. It’s underwhelming, although honestly they can’t make water. The headline number is a reduction in releases of 3 million acre feet. That would be a minimum release from Lake Mead of 5.1 million Acre feet. The 3 million release measured from 8 million acre feet which is a historical amount that has not happened in a long time. The 2026 water year will have releases of 6 million acre feet so the cut is really about a million acre feet per year. Another decision is to split the reductions 60% from Arizona, 40% from California, and a couple of teaspoons from Nevada. (The law of the river would have taken all of the reductions from Arizona. Equal percent reductions would have taken the most from California.) The Bureau chose the “maximum flexibility” option. The 3 million acre foot cut is not what the Bureau will cut every year. Three million acre feet should be thought of as the largest release reduction they will make to protect the lake. If they have to deliver less than 5.1 million feet to protect the Lake Mead they won’t. This year the inflow to lake Powell was 3.58 million acre feet, so could happen. The Bureau is not planning on protecting the present 1035 foot lake Mead level that allows almost all of the turbines to operate. They are going to try to protect the 1000 foot lake level that will allow the last 3 turbines to operate so there will be a 70% reduction in power output. Also, there are a few details in the plan that will keep levels low. The first one is that it does not affect the upper basin states Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, and Wyoming. They can continue to increase their withdrawals from the river. A farm could move from Arizona to Utah and get a water permit. The second problem is that in wet years more water will be released. The plan is named “maximum flexibility” for a reason. So wet years probably won’t lead to much of an increase in the lake levels, because there will be a lot of pressure to release any extra water. The Central Arizona Project was created to take water from the Colorado and put store it in the Arizona groundwater. Low lake levels are the future. Grain Prices Up “The FAO Cereal Price Index averaged 113.8 points in July, up 3.8 points (3.4 percent) from June and 7.3 points (6.9 percent) above its July 2025 level. Global wheat prices surged by 5.8 percent, standing 9.9 percent above their year-earlier level, amid heightened concerns over continued disruptions to Black Sea export flows and damage to export infrastructure, further compounded by the impact of recent heatwaves on crop yields in several key producing countries. World maize prices also increased, up 3.6 percent from June, supported by concerns over hot and dry weather in parts of the Corn Belt in the United States of America and spillover effects from firmer energy markets amid heightened geopolitical tensions. International sorghum prices edged higher in line with the increases in maize prices in the United States of America. By contrast, barley prices fell by 1.9 percent, as favorable crop prospects in Australia and the Black Sea region more than offset heat-related yield losses in the European Union. On the other hand, the FAO All Rice Price Index held broadly steady in July 2026, as a mild increase in Indica quotations was offset by demand-driven price declines for all other major traded rice varieties.” https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en Grain prices are up recently, although the 2022-2023 spike still beats anything from this year. Strangely, the Russian invasion of Ukraine is still a bigger deal than the US attack on Iran. Inflation adjusted food prices were also higher in spikes in 2008, 2011, and 1975. The spikes in 2008 and 2011 led to the Arab spring. The spike in 1975 is the largest food crisis you never heard of. Grain prices trippled in a few months. Nixon sold most of the US grain reserves to Russia, setting off fears of a shortage, which led to our government and Canada’s colluding to drive up grain prices to reduce their foreign aid bill. The UN called it a disaster. An el nino didn’t help. Prices are in those ranges, but not the highest in history. https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/oa-mono/10.4324/9781003450337-3/world-food-crisis-1972%E2%80%931975%E2%80%93-macro-perspective-christian-gerlach El Nino We are in the el nino phase of the el nino southern oscillation (enso). The index passed 0.5 percent in the beginning of June, which is the level at which an el nino is declared. The el nino index represents the temperature anomaly of a portion of the equatorial pacific (the 3.4 area). That area is now 1.0 or 1.8 degrees C warmer than the average temp of the area. The difference between those 2 numbers is that the first one, called RONI takes into account global warming. Because the central pacific has heated up the RONI index is 0.8 degrees less, than the classic el nino measure. A moderate el nino has an index of 1. to 1.4 and a strong one 1.5 to 1.9. So by one measure we are in a moderate el nino and the other is a strong el nino. The climate prediction center reports 0.5, because their number is an average of the last 3 months. According to the New York Times the early affects are already in evidence. Rice planting has been delayed in south east Asia. Central America is in drought. The reverse is also true though. The drought in the middle ease has eased. Syrian wheat is up 230% this year over last year. Iraq’s up 32%, Morocco’s up 140% in the last 2 years as their drought has eased. Turkey’s wheat crop is doing better up 33% this year. Uruguay is up 47% in soybeans as la nina has disappeared. At this point el nino probably looks like a plus, because the la nina droughts have ended but the el nino droughts have just started. We are expecting droughts in South Asia, Brazil, Central America, Northern China and Southern Africa. The biggest el nino effect could be a failure of the South Indian monsoon. El nino is also expected to produce excess rain in the American south, Africa north of the drought area (Tanzania up to Ethiopia), the Middle East, Peru and Central Asia. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/regressions/geplr.shtml Heat Waves The European heat wave just won’t quit. Expected output from wheat and corn are down 1.3% and 6.5% percent from last month. Last week was the hottest day of the year in the UK, although the June heat wave still seems to be the worst of the five. The dry band stretches all the way through the Ukraine. https://nasagrace.unl.edu At this point it’s hard to believe that food prices will come down before the midterms especially the two being watched by Maga types: bread and meat. Unfortunately, nothing looks like it’s going to get better after that. The USDA is looking for imports to buffer price increases, but it looks like we may be competing with Europe and India for the harvest. [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2026/8/22/800087190/community/august-food-security-update/ Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/