(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Is This 1914 Again? [1] ['Dan K', 'Chitown Kev', 'Sabrina Haake'] Date: 2026-08-02 There are few events in history as world-changing as World War I. The war destroyed empires, triggered a communist revolution, shifted the balance of power toward the United States, raised hopes for national independence, and introduced a new level of brutality to military conflict. Among other things. By most historians’ thinking, the war did not end at Versailles in 1919 but in 1945; some even argue it only really ended in 1989 when the Soviet Union collapsed. And that may not be the end of it; much of what drives Putin’s ambition is revenge for that collapse, in a way not dissimilar to Hitler’s desire for revenge on the Allies’ revenge on Germany for World War I. David French makes brief reference to that past in his column this morning: The War That Could Swallow the World: I’ve often wondered what it was like to be alive in the summer of 1914, much less in 1938 and 1939. When did people start to realize that the world was on the brink of catastrophe? Speak up too soon or too frequently, and you look ridiculous — like the Chicken Little of world war. Speak up too late, and you live (if you live) with bitter regret. He argues that this speculation arises because the situation the world finds itself in now, largely thanks to trump: There is no such thing as a safe war — any war can spin out of control — but the combination of American power, enemy weakness and Russian and Chinese restraint meant that Americans could sleep secure in the knowledge that the chances of a catastrophic escalation were extremely remote. That is no longer the case. The world is walking a path toward a world war, and no one — including the president of the United States — seems to be in command of events. That is as far as French draws the parallel. But it caught my eye in part because I recently did some serious research on what triggered World War I. (You can watch my presentation here.*) The causes are incredibly complex; a hundred years after it started, historians still cannot agree on exactly what happened, much less why it led to war. Still, I have identified (to my satisfaction, anyway) a number of factors that were important in sending the world off to war in August 1914. Some of these are disturbing repeating themselves today: Autocratic Leadership: One of the advantages that a republican form of government is supposed to provide is requiring decisions to be reached by consensus. This means, among other things, that all kinds of options get presented, that experts get to weigh in, to point out flaws and consequences, that goals get articulated. It doesn’t work perfectly or sometimes even all that well, but it is better than relying on the hope that a leader who inherited or cajoled his way into being the sole authority really does know what he is doing. In 1914, only Great Britain had anything like a consensus body – the cabinet – among the major powers. (The cabinet also dithered far too long before facing up to the severity of the July Crisis, which shows that this arrangement has its own weaknesses.) France had something similar but not as well-defined. But Germany and Russia were ruled by autocrats who had inherited their positions, and who were widely (if quietly) acknowledged not to be up the job. The Tsar at least did try to listen to his advisors (but often could not bring himself to decide between contradictory opinions). He was also aware of the terrible cost of war, to the point of paralysis. The German Kaiser, on the other hand, gloried in war (partly because he had a disability – a withered left arm – that disqualified him from actually being a soldier than just playing one). He was also convinced he knew more than his generals and his diplomats. Sound familiar? If I had to pick one of the personalities of 1914 who most resembles trump, it would be Kaiser Wilhelm (with lots of the usual caveats and hesitations). Focus on military rather than diplomatic solutions: Like the rest of the history of the July Crisis, this is more complex than that simple statement. In simple terms, Austria-Hungary’s immediate response to the killing of its heir to the throne was to plan a military attack on Serbia, and no matter what diplomatic efforts were tried, Vienna never really wavered from that plan. In fact, Vienna was obsessed with destroying Serbia, and not even Germany, its only major ally, could talk the Austro-Hungarians out of it. (It is one of the many ironies of WWI that, when it ended, the Austro-Hungarian empire lay in ruins, and Serbia was awarded much of the territory inhabited by ethnic Slavs – Yugoslavia.) The parallel is hardly exact, but there is something eerily similar to Netanyahu’s obsession with destroying Iran, with trump (unlike the Kaiser) being equally obsessed. Another similarity here is the astonishing amount of misunderstanding of the opposition, both militarily and diplomatically. I’m not going to get into the details, but this is another way in which today’s world resembles the world of July 1914. The generals all misunderstood the strengths and weaknesses of their allies and their enemies. The mutual diplomatic misunderstandings would have been comic if they had not been so serious. It was sometimes painful to read the cables from the few diplomats who actually grasped the realities of the situation trying desperately to make their home offices understand. One final point, again not parallel but related: Racism was a major factor in the leadup to World War I. Again, this gets complicated, so let me just cite the mutual contempt that the Slavs – Russia and Serbia – had for the Germans – Germany and Austro-Hungary, as well as the contempt the Hungarians had for anyone not a Magyar (Hungarian). Putin has a similar contempt for the Ukrainians, as does Iran for Israelis and Jews everywhere. Netanyahu has contempt for Arabs. trump has contempt, period, but especially for anyone not a white European. The final point I want to make about the similarities between July 1914 and summer 2026 is that back then the powers went to war almost in spite of themselves. They allowed events, misinterpretations, prejudices, outmoded ideas about warfare, sheer inertia to slide them into war almost before they realized what they were doing. (Among other things, they expected this war to be quick, as earlier 20th century wars had been. Sound familiar?) Here is French again: I’m not trying to predict anything, and I hold out hope for de-escalation. I know there are still serious people in the American government (whether they have Trump’s ear is a different question) and in allied governments across the world. But we can analyze the events and trends of the moment, and right now all the momentum is toward greater escalation. And we absolutely cannot do what Trump asks, which is to “just sit back and relax” and trust that “it will all work out well in the end.” I do not think that world war is inevitable, nor do I think it is probable. But it is more possible now than it has been at any time since the end of the Cold War, and the American government is led by the worst rulers in the modern history of the United States. Submitted for your consideration. *Shameless plug: This presentation was part of the monthly program series put on by the Institute for Historical Study. IHS is always open to new members who have a professional or high amateur interest in history. If you’re interested, check out our website, [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2026/8/2/800078742/community/is-this-1914-again/ Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/