(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: The consequence of losing a war [1] ['Greg Dworkin'] Date: 2026-06-22 What Changed After Almost Four Months of War? Analysts Say Not Much. Neither the war nor the agreement terminated the main threats emanating from Iran, many analysts said. Neither the war nor the agreement ended what U.S. and Israeli officials regard as the main threats emanating from Iran. The country’s nuclear program, while heavily damaged, was not eliminated — its fate punted to future negotiation. The same goes for its ballistic missiles, which the deal does not address. Iran’s authoritarian regime endured, albeit with new leaders. Its proxies remain a threat to the region. Israel and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militia in Lebanon, persisted in attacking each other. By Saturday, even the most significant immediate result of the deal — Iran’s reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which Mr. Trump had identified as essential — seemed at risk. Iran’s military said it was closing the waterway again, because the United States had failed to stop the fighting in Lebanon. The U.S. military contested that, saying the strait remained open as the agreement stipulated. Perhaps the odd sitch where Trump having no principles or shame helps us because he is more willing than an ideologue to dump anything anyone else believes in to get out of a stupid war he started for no good reason. But that won’t help him escape blame, nor will scapegoating JD Vance. In Trump’s shadow, Vance becomes face of Iran deal The timing is awkward for Vance, who just days ago published a memoir that intensified speculation about a possible presidential run in 2028. It will be hard for him to sell this interim deal to a party that is divided between anti-interventionist Maga supporters who opposed the war from the start, and conservative Iran hawks who believe the White House has ultimately capitulated to Tehran. When you’ve lost Miriam… Columnist in Adelson’s Israel Hayom rips Trump as a failure. Adelson has donated more than $100M to Trumphttps://t.co/SeVQDYCWSI — Howard Stutz (@howardstutz) June 21, 2026 How the Iran War Reshaped the Global Landscape of Power The United States and Israel will be weaker for years to come. The memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed this week is effectively a surrender document—for Washington, that is. Apparently, in exchange for doing nothing more than signing the MOU, agreeing to 60 days of talks, and opening up the Strait of Hormuz, the Iranians will gain financial concessions that would have been unthinkable a few months ago. These could include the release of at least some frozen or restricted Iranian funds and assets, as well as waivers available “immediately upon the signing of this MOU” for “the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.,” according to the MOU released by the Trump administration. To sum up: The U.S. president gained nothing at all in his war—far less than nothing, actually—in return for spending tens of billions of dollars and costing thousands of lives, including at least 13 Americans killed. To win vague promises from Tehran, Trump did major damage to the newly inflation-plagued U.S. economy; betrayed his political base at home; seriously depleted the U.S. critical weapons supply; empowered China and heightened its relative stature; alienated U.S. allies; and weakened the Gulf states. When a Cease-Fire Is Really a Stalemate Equilibrium With Iran Is the Best America Can Do For U.S. President Donald Trump, this is not a great outcome. When Trump launched the war against Iran in late February, he promised Americans that he would end the country’s nuclear program, dismantle its missile capacities, and perhaps destroy the Islamic Republic itself. He failed on every count. In fact, the war showed that Tehran is more resilient than many analysts expected. The regime endured months of pain—including the assassination of almost its entire top leadership—and emerged intact. By shutting off the Strait of Hormuz and sending energy prices skyward, Tehran even proved that it has a tool it can use to coerce other governments, Washington included. Rising gas costs, after all, are part of what prompted Trump to end the conflict. Still, this result doesn’t need to be a defeat for the United States. Washington achieved some tactical successes during the war, and it conceded relatively little. On the whole, the deal is mostly a return to the prewar status quo. Yes, American officials still need to manage Iran’s nuclear aspirations, missiles, and proxies. But the United States has been able to do so for the last 20 years without resorting to conflict. It can do so once more. This assumes clowns aren’t in change. Bad assumption. Keir Starmer resigns, as Andy Burnham confirms he will run to replace him as Labour leader and PM Starmer emotional as he mentions his wife and children Starmer says after leaving the “biggest job in the country” he will spend more time on “the most important job” If rumours are to be believed I'll be living with a seventh different Prime Minister shortly. If it carries on like this I'm going to stop making the effort to learn their names. — Larry the Cat (@Number10cat) June 22, 2026 Susan Collins Is Going To Win Again, and Democrats Have No One To Blame But Themselves The embattled Republican senator from Maine is on track to win another term in November despite potentially difficult national circumstances for her party Last week, Raphael Warnock said that Maine’s Senate seat is no longer a “must-win” for Democrats in their quest to win back the majority. Statements like these are rarely good signs, and they’re ones that, by and large, Democrats have done quite well at avoiding over the course of the past few cycles. Broadly, Republicans have suffered significantly more from poor candidate quality in statewide races than Democrats have, especially in the second Trump era. In fact, per Split Ticket’s WAR formula, since 2020, Democrats have only “blown”1 two Senate races: Maine in 2020,2 where Sara Gideon should’ve won by 3.9%3 but lost by 8.5%, and Pennsylvania in 2024, where Bob Casey should’ve won by about 1.5% but lost by 0.2%. By contrast, Republicans have “blown” eight races, as is shown in the table below… Generally speaking, in competitive Senate elections, Democrats have nominated stronger candidates, while Republicans have nominated weaker candidates. As can be seen, using Split Ticket’s estimates, this dynamic has cost Republicans a net of six Senate seats in just the same number of years, a striking result. The good news for the GOP, though, is that 2026 is beginning to show a change in that trend, and the main piece of insight pundits should be gleaning from Warnock’s comment on Maine is that the party has become bearish on its prospects in the state, not that it is no longer a necessary part of the path to 51 seats. Graham Platner could win, but it would take an upset for that to happen. Maine State Auditor Matt Dunlap, running against Paul LePage in CD 2 is expected to lose, so Maine Democrats aren’t doing the national party any fovors. And Democrats aren’t done picking less than stellar candidates (Michigan) or refusing unity for reasons known only to themselves (happening in Texas). Funny thing is, the atmosphere is so bad for the GOP, Democrats might win despite themselves. And you can argue you can’t be the strongest candidate if you lose primaries. But there’s always going to be conventional wisdom, and sometimes it’s not wrong. The left is gaining ground in D primaries this year, but still mostly in heavily blue places (safe CDs, blue cities). Can they win nominations in more swing places-& win general elections if they do? My take on the big messages from the 2026 Dem primaries. https://t.co/8zjafrnUih — Ronald Brownstein (@RonBrownstein) June 21, 2026 Progressives are likely to secure more wins in Tuesday’s New York primary. Mamdani has endorsed a slate of three very liberal House candidates, including former New York City comptroller Brad Lander, who appears likely to oust Rep. Daniel Goldman. In a nearby district, Democratic socialist Darializa Avila Chevalier, another Mamdani pick, faces a tougher challenge to uproot Rep. Adriano Espaillat. One admirer has said that if Chevalier wins, she might instantly become “the most left-leaning member of Congress.” Ron Brownstein So @jonswaine @washingtonpost has seen hundreds of documents containing evidence that Tulsi Gabbard, Donald Trump's Director of National Intelligence, was directed throughout her career by the leader of the cult she grew up in https://t.co/xbXRTIX1tl — Anne Applebaum (@anneapplebaum) June 21, 2026 For cash-strapped farmers, deal to end Iran fighting comes too late Some of the president’s strongest supporters are hurting as midterm elections approach. “There’s no joy left in this farm. When you work 16-hour days and get to the end of the year, and you have to borrow money to pay your taxes, there’s no fun in it. It’s just not worth it anymore,” said Tyson, a fourth-generation farmer, who long ago advised his daughters to look elsewhere for a good life. Tough times on the farm are souring some of the president’s most loyal supporters little more than four months before November’s congressional elections. Rural voters backed Trump’s economic policies by a 45 percent to 43 percent margin early last year but now disapprove of them 61 percent to 31 percent, according to a Reuters-Ipsos poll released this month. A separate Purdue University-CME Group survey this month showed that agricultural producers in particular have grown more downbeat. From a high of 75 percent in December, the percentage of those surveyed saying the country is headed in the right direction fell to 52 percent in May. Farmers represent a key constituency in states that could decide control of the U.S. Senate, including Iowa, Texas, Ohio and Michigan, as well as North Carolina. But not Maine 😱 I hope people understand what is happening here. The Iranians see Trump and the USA as so weak now, that they can toy with the administration. They want Trump to beg https://t.co/wIgj1hz7oL — Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) June 21, 2026 Cliff Schecter/Blue Amp Media: The Jeffrey Epstein Lesson: Predators Don’t Survive Without Protectors The Real Scandal Isn’t The Predator. It’s The Institutions That Protect Them. If Jeffrey Epstein is the whole story, then we’re not talking about the billionaires who socialized with him. The universities that welcomed him. The institutions that knew—and still took his money. The corporate chieftains, lawyers, and other elites who covered for him—including Haberman and Swan, who profited from burying parts of the story til their release fit nicely with their scheduled book-tour. Then there are those who remained Epstein friends, clients, business partners, or investors. Even after Epstein was judged guilty in Florida almost exactly 18 years go, on state charges of procuring a minor for prostitution and soliciting a prostitute. Unlike these protectors, I won’t allow the horrors to be buried. I am here to remind you of the role of one of the most powerful Republicans of the 21st Century in covering up a pedophile ring of Congress members and underage pages—and his eventual implication in the same crimes. And even though it’s difficult for me, I’m here to name names from my “elite” high school, Horace Mann, which engaged in/covered up pedophilia, including the role of my onetime mentor. It’s all laid out in a barely seen report by a first of its kind Manhattan DA Sex Crimes Prosecution Bureau. The NY primary is tomorrow with some high profile races. See also Michael Lange: The (Not So) Civil War for the Commie Corridor "His involvement has already alienated Black and Latino progressives, powerful labor unions, and the left-leaning Working Families Party, all of which helped him get to City Hall and partnered with him as mayor. Some, like Representative Nydia Velázquez, have taken the rare step… — J.C. Polanco, Esq. (@JCPolancoNYC) June 21, 2026 G Dworkin names added to govtrack.us map 4 out of the 5 named Congress critters (AOC is safe) might be gone by tomorrow evening. [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2026/6/22/800058727/community/abbr/ Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/