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For Russia, 2026 is Looking Like 1918 [1]

['Thom Hartmann', 'Chitown Kev', 'Dan Bacher']

Date: 2026-06-02  

The brutal war of aggression that Russia is waging against Ukraine has now entered it’s 5th year. And yet, despite the predictions of many analysts at the start of the war, this conflict has not been characterized by sweeping armored units and blitzkrieg assaults after the initial 8 months. Rather a solidification of the frontlines by both sides occurred that has brought back echoes of World War 1 characterized with enormous expenditure of men and material by the Russian military for meager gains. This is very similar to the catastrophic attempts by the Allies to break through the Imperial German Army’s defense lines with battles like the Somme and Passchendaele now with modern examples like Bakhmut and the Donbass.

This war, to many, may seem to be going on well into the future. Yet, while Russia continues its relentless terror campaign of bombardment of Ukrainian cities, it is what is going on at the frontlines that will ultimately decide the result of this conflict. And what has changed over the last 6 months has been far more significant than what many talking heads realize. In particular, it is the realization that the losses on the frontline are exceeding Russia’s capability to replenish that has tipped the scales of this conflict. This has been reported by multiple sources within Ukraine and also from the EU.

Quite simply, the calculus of the war of attrition that Russia has been relying on is now working against them. As this continues the Russia invasion force will gradually become weaker and unable to hold their positions, much less conduct any meaningful offensive operations. Even if Russia should crack the Ukrainian defense line, Russia does not have the mobile reserves to exploit that crack, thus allowing time for Ukraine to reshuffle it’s forces to plug the hole as they’ve done a number of times in 2025.

The Russian frontline is becoming increasingly brittle and this mirrors what occurred to the Imperial German Army in 1918. After a large scale last ditch offensive in the spring of 1918 to win the war before the arrival of significant numbers of American troops, the German Army became depleted. During the summer of 1918, the Germans found themselves being gradually pushed back, slowly at first but more rapidly as the Allies launched the 100 Days Offensive in the summer of 1918. The German Army did not fall apart but found itself increasingly having to defend more territory with fewer soldiers and under increasing pressure by the Allies. By October of 1918, the German Army found itself on the brink of collapse and the German Navy had mutinied rather than die in a blaze of glory.

I believe we are seeing a similar scenario playing out today for the Russian Army. A vicious cycle has begun as the number of soldiers have become fewer and fewer due to mounting casualties, replenishment forces are raw and lack sufficient training and thus find themselves becoming casualties faster and faster. The Russian military either cannot or decided not to target Ukraine’s military industrial complex and instead opted to continue it’s campaign of aerial terror, thus allowing Ukraine to produce more drones than even they can use and are now exporting them to the Middle East and inking deals with the United States and other countries for their sale, bringing in much needed funds for Ukraine.

This growth and maturation of Ukraine’s military-industrial complex has now allowed Ukraine to use it’s formidable drone forces to turn the tide of war on the ground, thus creating the unsustainable butchers bill for Russia. And Ukraine has multiple levels of strike capability that they did not have even a year ago. Russian logistics routes are being targeted on a daily basis while key military and economic facilities are being damaged repeatedly now by Ukraine’s long range drone and cruise missile capability.

Given these factors, I’m going to make a bold prediction. If Russia cannot reverse it’s battlefield loses due to Ukraine’s drone attacks along with Russia’s continuing meat-grinder assaults that further deplete Russia’s manpower reserves, then I predict that the Russian frontline will crack or begin to withdraw from their positions within the next 6 months. This is simply due to the fact that the calculus of the war of attrition that Russia chose to fight with is now favoring Ukraine rather than Russia. And with that advantage gone, so to is Russia’s overall war strategy.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2026/6/2/800049485/community/for-russia-2026-is-looking-like-1918/

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