(C) BoingBoing
This story was originally published by BoingBoing and is unaltered.
 . . . . . . . . . .



Google.ai predicts its own enshittification timeline [1]

['Mark Frauenfelder']

Date: 2025-12-19  

Google.ai is a new front-end for Google's AI services. Currently, it's free, ad-free, and delivers uncluttered answers to questions. It won't work this well for long, though. It's destined for enshittification, but how soon? I asked Google.ai to give me its own enshittification timeline, and here's what it said:

Stage 1: User Seduction (Current – 2026)

In this stage, Google prioritizes providing immense, "surplus" value to users at its own expense to achieve massive adoption and lock-in.



The Goal: Build habit and dependency.



Example (2025): Google offers AI Overviews (formerly Search Generative Experience) for free, prioritizing clean, fast, and comprehensive summaries that resolve user queries in fewer steps — averaging 2–3 queries per session compared to 5+ in traditional search.



Sign of Decline: Even during this "golden age," publishers are already seeing a 50–70% drop in click-through rates as Google shifts toward "zero-click" results.



Stage 2: Business Optimization (2026 – 2028)

Once a critical mass of users is "locked in," the platform pivots to serve its corporate and advertising partners, often degrading the user experience to do so.



The Goal: Shift surplus value from users to business customers.



Example (2026 Prediction): Sponsored AI responses become the default. Instead of the most accurate answer, the top-level AI summary is "grounded" in content provided by paying partners (e.g., specific retailers or service providers).



The Decay: Conversations with AI become "lead generation" opportunities. As of late 2025, Google has already confirmed that ads are coming to "AI Mode" with no opt-out, turning personal conversational details into behavioral profiling data for advertisers.



Stage 3: Extractive Decline (2029 and Beyond)

In the final stage, the platform aims to maximize short-term profits for its shareholders, impacting both users and business partners.



The Goal: Capture all remaining surplus value.



Example (2029 Prediction): High-quality AI results are placed behind a Gemini Premium paywall. The free version becomes filled with low-quality content, misinformation, and low-fidelity ads.

The Collapse: Ad prices increase while effectiveness decreases due to bot fraud and low-quality content. Experts predict that low-quality content will make up 90% of the internet by 2026.

Nailed it!

[END]
---
[1] Url: https://boingboing.net/2025/12/19/google-ai-predicts-its-own-enshittification-timeline.html

Published and (C) by BoingBoing
Content appears here under this condition or license: Creative Commons BY-NC-SA 3.0.

via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds:
gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/boingboing/