(C) The Conversation This story was originally published by The Conversation and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Cyclone Alfred latest: where and when it will hit, and what to expect this weekend [1] ['Steve Turton'] Date: 2025-03-05 02:56:10+00:00 Tropical Cyclone Alfred is bearing down on the coast of southern Queensland and northern New South Wales. As of Friday afternoon, the cyclone was a category 2 and was slowly moving west towards land. Sustained winds near the centre of the cyclone have reached 100 kilometres per hour, with wind gusts to 140km per hour. Rain and wind are likely to persist on Friday and over the weekend. Alfred is forecast to cross the Moreton Bay Islands on Saturday morning before crossing the mainland coast, most likely between Noosa and Beenleigh, later on Saturday. The bureau has issued warnings from Double Island Point in Queensland to Grafton in NSW. The area includes Brisbane, the Gold Coast, the Sunshine Coast, Byron Bay and Ballina. The intensifying cyclone is a major concern, and makes Cyclone Alfred an unusual phenomenon. Cyclones typically lose strength as they approach the coast – especially this far south. It means Alfred may cause extensive damage, including to inland areas. Read more: 'Don't panic, do prepare': why it's not too late to plan for Cyclone Alfred What to expect in the next few days As of Friday afternoon, bands of heavy rain extended over southeast Queensland and northeast NSW. The bureau warns heavy to locally intense rainfall, which may cause dangerous flash flooding, is likely to develop from Friday afternoon. Once Alfred crosses the coast, it is likely to weaken to below tropical-cyclone strength later on Saturday, according to the bureau. But rain is expected to continue over the weekend. Abnormally high tides are likely to continue causing minor flooding of low-lying coastal areas between Double Island Point and Ballina. Cyclone Alfred is expected to weaken and move inland during Saturday, however damaging wind gusts may continue before easing on Sunday. In Brisbane, some 20,000 properties have been warned of impacts ranging from minor inundation in yards to significant flooding inside homes. Areas most at risk include Nudgee Beach, Brighton, Windsor, Ashgrove, Morningside and Rocklea. Close ups of areas most at risk: Damaging surf may also cause serious erosion at open beaches between Sandy Cape and Grafton, and further south into NSW. Northern NSW has already been hit by devastating flooding in recent years, most recently in February 2022. Many of its settlements, including Lismore, are along or close to major river courses. Residents are understandably anxious about what the next few days may bring. The bureau released the below map on Friday. It shows the bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. The grey zone indicates the range of tracks the cyclone centre may follow. The bureau says winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. BoM Why is Alfred so fired up? Cyclone Alfred has been meandering off Queensland’s coast for two weeks. It has maintained its cyclonic structure and intensity much further south than is typical. BoM Unique atmospheric and oceanic conditions have allowed Cyclone Alfred to intensify. It moved towards an area of warmer coastal water (around 27°C), which caused it to strengthen. It also moved into an area of reduced “vertical wind shear” – a variation in wind speed running at right angles to prevailing winds, which often acts to weaken a cyclone. Usually, cyclones in this part of Australian waters may brush the coast, but are soon pulled south or east by an upper trough of cold air and then flicked away into the cooler waters of the Tasman Sea – to an area known as the “cyclone graveyard”. The current situation is unusual because that upper trough is absent. At the same time, a high pressure system in the Tasman Sea is steering the cyclone towards the coast. Jono Searle/AAP There is much affected communities can do to prepare, as outlined here. For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, go to Get Ready Queensland. For emergency assistance call the State Emergency Service (SES) in NSW or Queensland on 132 500. [END] --- [1] Url: https://theconversation.com/cyclone-alfred-latest-where-and-when-it-will-hit-and-what-to-expect-this-weekend-251358 Published and (C) by The Conversation Content appears here under this condition or license: Creative Commons CC BY-ND 4.0. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/theconversation/