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How will Russia’s war in Ukraine develop as we near winter? [1]

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Date: 2023-10 

“To date, Ukraine has liberated over 54% of Russian-occupied Ukraine and they continue to retain the strategic advantage.” That was the message from General Mark Milley, chair of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, at a recent meeting of the Ukraine Defence Contacts Group (UDCG) in Germany.

If that sounded as if victory was imminent, Milley also stressed that the war would continue through the winter and until Russia was defeated.

One of the problems for analysts is that such a statement, as well as claims from Russian sources, make it difficult to assess what is really happening on the ground. Strictly speaking, Milley is correct that Ukraine maintains the advantage, but the country’s autumn offensive is proving far more difficult than expected and the war is far from over. Analysts now expect it to continue through 2024 and into 2025, with its outcome depending largely on whether Joe Biden is re-elected in the US next November.

In one sense, Milley’s statement provides a valid explanation for this apparent contradiction. Back in the first month of the war, Russian forces made rapid advances, despite being poorly equipped and trained and, with few exceptions, badly led. They had the advantage of having many tens of thousands of troops thrown into the fray, but any apparent success did not last long.

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Aided by comprehensive access to US intelligence capabilities, Ukrainian forces reacted with considerable speed to take back large swathes of territory, including towns of villages uncomfortably close to the capital, Kyiv. By May last year, they were also recapturing land from Russia towards eastern Ukraine, including districts in the southeast that had been the site of fighting ever since 2015.

Since then, the conflict has evolved into a violent stalemate, with Russia able to threaten escalation if losing, while Ukraine knows that NATO’s whole reputation is now at stake and that it simply will not countenance defeat.

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[1] Url: https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/how-will-russias-war-in-ukraine-develop-as-we-near-winter/

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