This unaltered story [1] was originally published on OpenDemocracy.org. License [2]: Creative Commons 4.0 - Attributions/No Derivities/Int'l. ------------------------ 9 May: Will Putin escalate Russia's war in Ukraine? By: [] Date: 2022-06 Why is Vladimir Putin seemingly exercising restraint? There is no lack of bombast in the Russian president’s speeches and TV pronouncements, but he could, if he so wished, have escalated the war in Ukraine rapidly and intensively. Yet the Kremlin appears to have avoided destroying key Ukrainian infrastructure and areas of substantial economic or military value. In fact, it actually seems that NATO is demonstrating its power – with the coming days seeing the start of extensive military exercises stretching from the Arctic to the Mediterranean – while Putin is slowing down the war, rather than accelerating it. There are many explanations why this may be, but two stand out. Get our free Daily Email Get one whole story, direct to your inbox every weekday. Sign up now One is that the Kremlin now recognises that the war cannot be won. If so, on 9 May – Russia’s much-celebrated Victory Day, which marks the defeat of Nazi Germany in 1945 – Putin may claim victory in Mariupol and impending victory in Donbas, regardless of the facts on the ground. In this scenario, it is likely that Russia would continue but not expand the war, while actually being prepared for negotiations. The other possibility is that Putin will use 9 May to announce Russia-wide military mobilisation and intensify the war, seeking a much broader victory. He would argue that NATO has now gone to war with Russia and the future of the country is at stake, leaving him with no alternative. Which direction he leans on Victory Day will give us a clear view of whether this war will end within weeks or is entering its most dangerous phase. A revised war plan Putin’s original intention to terminate Volodymyr Zelenskyi's government has long since failed. But his overall aim – extending Russian influence westwards in pursuit of a renewed ‘Eurasia’ superpower – is still very much on the table. Far from his original deranged war plan, the Russian president has now determined on the rational path of occupying eastern Ukraine while extending control of the Black Sea coast right through to Transnistria. [END] [1] Url: https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/russia-ukraine-war-9-may-putin-victory-day-what-next/ [2] url: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/ OpenDemocracy via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/opendemocracy/