This unaltered story [1] was originally published on OpenDemocracy.org. License [2]: Creative Commons 4.0 - Attributions/No Derivities/Int'l. ------------------------ Russia and Ukraine could yet agree negotiated end to war By: [] Date: 2022-05 Vladimir Putin’s 9 May ‘Victory Day’ speech surprised most security analysts and political commentators. It was assumed the Russian president would either declare victory in Donbas – whatever the reality on the ground – and continue with the war while quietly looking for a negotiated settlement, or order a state-wide mobilisation and the vigorous pursuit of victory. We got neither. Instead, Putin re-wrote the war in Ukraine as a response to direct NATO aggression, which he framed in the context of Russia’s victory in The Great Patriotic War of 1941-45.Ukraine was likened to the German Nazis, with the two combining to threaten Russia. This may seem like nonsense but it helps to provide a convincing picture to many Russians, aided by NATO’s expansion eastwards in the late 1990s, which has continued more recently, and the close military relationship forged between Ukraine and several NATO member states. While NATO, of course, did not start the war, Putin now faces its powerful alliance. Senior politicians and military members are now openly saying Russia’s military power must be so reduced that it will be too feeble to threaten neighbouring states. That implies the end of his regime – which, to Putin, will be near enough an existential threat, with all the dangers built into that, including the risk of escalation to tactical nuclear weapons. For the Russian president and his advisers, it makes utter sense to see this as a Russia vs NATO war, with all the risky consequences that could follow. Get our free Daily Email Get one whole story, direct to your inbox every weekday. Sign up now Putin is now into a long-drawn-out war of attrition, planning to wear down both Ukraine and NATO so that he will at least be able to annex Donbas and connect it with Crimea. Problems abound, with morale so low that elite troops are reluctant to fight, and a recent disastrous attempt at a river crossing in order to take the Luhansk industrial towns of Lysychansk and Severodonetsk. There are two further problems for Russia; one obvious, the other less so. The first is the sheer level of resources being offered to Ukraine, especially by the United States, the most recent being a $40bn aid package. That alone is more than twice the UK’s entire annual international development programme and is on top of other packages being offered by individual NATO states. [END] [1] Url: https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/ukraine-russia-war-end-putin-negotiations-nuclear/ [2] url: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/ OpenDemocracy via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/opendemocracy/