This unaltered story [1] was originally published on OpenDemocracy.org.
License [2]: Creative Commons 4.0 - Attributions/No Derivities/Int'l.
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Ukraine war means less food and fuel for the world

By:   []

Date: 2022-04 

As the Ukraine war enters its second month it is close to a very violent stalemate. It is doing damage, however, far beyond the borders of that country or even of Europe – and not just with bullets and bombs.

If Putin’s war aim was to convert Ukraine into a client state beholden to the Kremlin, then the war had to be brief and conclusive. Gaining air superiority and extending territorial control along the Crimea-Donetsk corridor were important but a lightning attack on Kyiv was vital in order to terminate the Ukraine government. That failed right at the start and the whole operation slowed right down to a crawl.

Putin’s forces have altered their whole strategy and are now engaged primarily in counter-city attacks designed to destroy Ukraine morale while forcing a refugee crisis on neighbouring NATO states.

But the Zelensky government shows no sign of surrender and is even recapturing small pockets of territory from the Russian army. Yet it cannot defeat the Russian forces without massive supplies of offensive weapons which NATO is deterred from providing.

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Unless there is an internal revolt or Putin experiences an uncharacteristic change of mind, what would bring him to the negotiating table is far from certain. One thing seems clear enough, though: we are not there yet and may still be months away.

That means we also have to recognise some of the much wider consequences of this war. Some that are already clear will endure for months and years, many with knock-on effects across the world.

One winner is the world’s multiple military-industrial complexes. Back in January I argued that in many countries across the northern hemisphere the arms industries would benefit: so it has proved.
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