This unaltered story [1] was originally published on OpenDemocracy.org. License [2]: Creative Commons 4.0 - Attributions/No Derivities/Int'l. ------------------------ Putin’s attack on Ukraine isn’t going as planned. What will happen next? By: [] Date: 2022-03 Nine days into Russia’s assault on Ukraine and it is clear the Kremlin’s original plan has been derailed. The aim was to move rapidly on the capital, Kyiv, seizing the international airport to airlift troops in, then link with ground forces moving in from Belarus, occupy the city and take down the government in, at most, 72 hours. From the start, Russia would make a concerted effort to take control of the Ukrainian air space, mainly with missile attacks on air bases, air defences and logistics support. This, combined with troops spread across the whole country, would induce a fear factor to help cower the people of Ukraine into submission, rather like the ‘shock and awe’ approach used by the US at the start of the Iraq War. In addition, other ground and amphibious forces would move into the Donbas region from territory already in separatist hands, link with forces in Crimea and then move to take over the whole Black Sea Coast, including Ukraine’s third city and main seaport, Odessa. The ultimate aim was to replace the current Ukraine government with a client regime, ensuring that the end result would be of Ukraine and Belarus under Kremlin control. That would include Russian bases in both territories, forward-based cruise and ballistic missiles and highly secure naval bases on the Black Sea. Whether that would be a prelude to a wider expansion, perhaps including Kosovo or Georgia is less certain, but if the main aims had been met it would comprehensively re-draw the security map of Europe. Get our free Daily Email Get one whole story, direct to your inbox every weekday. Sign up now Rapid progress was confidently expected, so much so that the Kremlin did not order a general national mobilisation, which it would have done if sustained opposition was anticipated. What was assembled was a sufficient force to complete the planned task, provided it followed the timetable. That did not happen, and the reasons why may not be fully clear for many months or even years. The best assumptions are that there were very early mistakes in the attempt to take Kyiv airport, that the Ukraine opposition was much heavier and had high morale than anticipated, and that key equipment did not work as expected. There may also have been an elementary matter of timing. Military historians of European wars are apt to argue that no belligerent force should ever attack an opponent in spring or autumn because of one simple factor – mud. It seems ridiculously simple yet appears already to be a factor in this bitter conflict. [END] [1] Url: https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/russia-putin-attack-ukraine-not-going-as-planned-what-will-happen-next/ [2] url: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/ OpenDemocracy via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/opendemocracy/