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Why is Belarus hosting Russian troops?

By:   []

Date: 2022-02 

This week, Belarus and Russia are due to hold fresh military exercises in western and southern Belarus, provoking concern in light of the escalation over Ukraine. Indeed, the transfer of Russian troops to Belarus is unprecedented, and has emerged as an important component in the current crisis.

In just a year and a half, Belarus has turned from a country which sought dialogue over eastern Ukraine, including a peacekeeping role, to a potential front in a large-scale conflict between Russia and its southern neighbour. The mass crackdown on protest and dissent that followed the Belarusian 2020 presidential elections has led to a crisis of legitimacy for Lukashenka – and one that now, it appears, will be solved via the current Russia-Ukraine escalation.

Lukashenka announced his intention to hold unscheduled Belarusian-Russian exercises (Title: “Allied Resolve – 2022”) at the western and southern borders of Belarus at a meeting with army leaders on 17 January. On the same day, trains with Russian soldiers and military equipment from the Russian Far East began to arrive in the country. The timing of the exercises, which are set to run from 10 to 20 February, was made official only a day later.

The Belarusian leadership has not tried to hide the fact that these manoeuvres are part of the current military-political crisis around Ukraine. At the end of December, as the escalation gathered steam, Lukashenka said that the US and NATO’s perceived plans for Ukraine were “unacceptable not only for Russia, but also for us” – a reference to the Kremlin’s demands for no further NATO expansion. When approving the concept of the military exercises, he stressed that it would focus on working out “a certain plan of confrontation” with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic states.

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Since then, the rhetoric from Minsk has focused increasingly on Ukraine, including a promise to deploy “a whole contingent of the Belarusian army” at the country’s southern border.

Even more frankly, when Russian TV presenter Vladimir Solovyev asked

Lukashenka in early February if the joint exercises were directed at Ukraine, he said: “If necessary, then they’re against Ukraine. And against NATO, if necessary.”

Indeed, in the past few weeks, Lukashenka has been talking about a possible war in almost every public speech. During a 28 January address, he uttered the word “war” 36 times. He later explained that Belarus would face war only in two cases – if Belarus or Russia was attacked – only to contradict himself in the interview with Solovyev, stating that should the conflict in eastern Ukraine escalate, the Belarusian army would act “exactly like the Russian one”.
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