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Bellicose bullying – an introduction to MAGA diplomacy [1]

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Date: 2024-12-30  

Donald Trump has not yet been inaugurated, but he has already given the world clear signals that Trump 2.0 will be a lot like Trump 1.0, only it’s likely to be much worse.

In an early December interview with NBC News, he reiterated his campaign threat to impose tariffs of 10 – 20 Percent on all imports and 60 percent on goods from China, which multiple studies estimate would cost American consumers hundreds to thousands of dollars a year in added costs. Some American companies are already warning that they might have to raise prices if he follows through on the tariff threats.

The threats of tariffs on Chinese imports, could backfire, if China’s Xi Jinping decides to retaliate by not only imposing tit-for-tat counter tariffs, but could impose import restrictions on critical minerals that are essential to many U.S. industries, inflicting significant economic pain. Canada and Mexico, two huge U.S. trading partners, are also included in the tariff threats, and a trade war with these two neighbors could affect the entire economy, from grocery prices to auto sales.

Perhaps even more troubling in terms of the potential long-term impact on U.S. international relations are posts Trump has made on his social media platform and at other venues, regarding Canada, the Panama Canal, and Greenland.

First, maybe in jest—but with Trump, who knows—was his statement during a dinner with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at his Mar-a-Lago resort that Canada should become the 51st U.S. state. Then, at a post-election rally in Arizona in late December, he said that his new administration could try to regain control of the Panama Canal, by force if necessary because the U.S. is being charged ‘ridiculous fees’ to transit the canal. Finally, he has revived his first term offers to buy Greenland from Denmark.

The Trump team is already scrambling to paint these bellicose positions as merely tactics that are part of a broader strategy in the overarching mission to counter Russia and China. Whether this is true or not is hard to determine, especially considering that Trump had not said or even indicated any such thing. This seems like his first term tactics on steroids, his love of keeping things roiled up and being totally unpredictable. But even if it is true, from the perspective of someone who spent three decades as a diplomat, as diplomatic strategy—it sucks.

Trump’s bullying, transactional approach to diplomacy, which is a questionable way to even conduct business, is a potential disaster in the foreign affairs arena. This kind of bellicosity will only cause a deterioration of relationships with other countries, especially allies, and make it more difficult to build alliances in the future. Unlike business deals, which are often one-off, countries will always be there and have to be delt with. Alienate them today and they might not be there tomorrow. It’s kind of like walking into someone’s house and saying, ‘Sell me your house, or I’ll burn it down,” and then going back the next day to ‘borrow a cup of sugar.’ Ain’t gonna happen.

There’s a place for aggressive actions in diplomacy, but not bullying, and certainly not as an opening gambit. The problem with using bullying as the first card played is that if your opponent takes you seriously and responds in kind . . . you then have to put up or shut up, and your credibility is already shot no matter what you do. In the world of diplomacy, you can’t declare bankruptcy, pocket the money and move on to the next deal. Worse, what you do with one country—particularly a friendly country—is seen by other countries and is factored into how they approach you or respond to your approaches. One of the most important assets in diplomacy is trust, and bullies are trusted by no one.

I have a sick feeling in the pit of my stomach that what we’re seeing in advance of January 20, 2025, is but a teaser of things to come, so my advice is to buckle your seat belts because we’re in for a wild four-year ride.

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