(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Reading the Crystal Ball before 2025 [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2024-12-28 This diary shares some predictions for 2025. I’m hoping that DailyKos readers may have some more positive takes than me, but here goes. Prologue: taking unproven credit for past predictions: Right after Trump was elected in 2016, I had a talk with one of my Trump voting in-laws. I told him I expected: Trump and the GOP to explode the deficit. Trump was under Putin’s thumb for causes unknown, but Trump was going to suck up to Putin to the detriment of the US. I cannot remember everything else, but I do remember saying Trump’s attitude toward others was fundamentally un-American. (Unproven) I believe I correctly called some other stuff, but I believe I underestimated just how bad Trump would be in his first term. This time, I want to go public with some predictions for the next Trump term before the year is out. So, here are my crystal ball predictions. Dark cloud prediction: Here are some negative things that I feel safe in predicting about from the coming Trump term: Trump and the GOP will explode the deficit. I know this is a no-brainer because GOP policy is always tax-cuts without adjustments to spending. This time I fully expect them to go after some government spending, but the cuts will be random, and the GOP wants brand new expensive projects like deporting American citizens along with non-citizens. Americans will be less secure due to GOP policies through for reasons big and small: Shifting taxation away from income taxes and corporate taxes on profits will hammer away at the purchasing power for lower income workers. (Recognizing that the tariffs talk is just part of the soft sell aimed at a national sales taxes or flat taxes). Do they even have a strategy to make more affordable housing? Scratching or reducing the ACA could deprive health insurance from millions of Americans. Tailing back on government support programs could force millions into food insufficiency and (increased) poverty. Continuing the assault on women’s reproductive rights will cause further needless suffering and financial burdens primarily on women. Ignoring or exacerbating the increasing cost of climate change will leave us further behind in solving the problem. The effect of deportation in place of smart integration of immigrants may have profound consequences (I just do not feel I know how that will play out). Promulgation of fear and pain as the point of policy will spread insecurity. A new age of government corruption (e.g. the real reign of the oligarchs) will occur. By this, I mean two things: 1) We will see pay from play from the White House and it will trickle down to red states and other federal elected agencies (the Supreme Court seems like it is already there) and 2) Trump and people like Bezos and Musk will look to rig it so that government money gets dumped into their businesses (AWS anyone? Space X?). Point 2) may also involve the sale of government lands and resources. Crime will increase due to increasing personal insecurity, a continued assault on trust in the government by the right, and as a reflection of a criminal and immoral presidency. Grim I know. It is just the synthesis of the storm as I see it. The Crystal Ball is hazy I do not feel that I know what will happen to the stock market. Tax cuts to businesses will likely boost their profit margins, but slashing government protections of consumers will eventually lead to the snake eating its own tail. Applying the lessons of history tells predicts that under GOP rule the economy will grow slower than it might otherwise would under a Democratic government. Self-Reflection on Pessimism This post obviously reflects a deep pessimism on my part, but I would observe that I often found my worst predictions are not met (e.g. at least in the degree that I imagine). I sincerely hope this is the case even if it turns out I am partially correct in more an a few of my predictions. Some other reasons to keep the faith: You can never win by giving up. The world will not completely fall in apart in two years and it would not surprise me to see the US House and the Senate moving back to the hands of the Democrats in 2026. The Trump constituency is neither homogeneous in its goals or allegiances, so it will not necessarily be efficient. The MAGA majority is slim, and this is an era of anti-incumbency, so without immediate positive economic changes Trump and the GOP will become the target in coming elections. That immediate win is going to be hard for them because of what their policies are not going to do that for most Americans. Read GNR posts (always recommended). Any thoughts (and a poll because it is so easy to add). [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/12/28/2294114/-Reading-the-Crystal-Ball-before-2025?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=more_community&pm_medium=web Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/