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Why We Lost and Why We Will Win: GNR [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2024-12-14  

In a close election (and this was a close election) you can come up with a million reasons why one party lost and the other won and many of them will be right. Because it isn’t only one thing that leads to a win or a loss when millions and millions of people vote. Things like making it harder to vote, the situation in Gaza and Israel, the lateness of our campaign, Musk’s intervention, all of those played a role.

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But there is another factor that I think played a role and I want to emphasize it here because I think it bodes well for us in 2026 and 2028.

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It has to do with the very nature of what makes someone liberal versus conservative.

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I learned a lot of this from the amazing book The Broken Ladder by Keith Payne and the scholarship of John Jost of NYU.

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Conservatives (in our country represented by the Republican party) and liberals (in our country represented by the Democratic party) tend to differ on two basic dimensions.

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First, conservatives generally want to preserve how things are (i.e. the name conservatives) — like Hobbes, they believe that society in chaos is the worst possible thing. They genuinely believe that the strongest societies maintain how things are.

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Liberals want change. Not just for the sake of change, but because, like John Locke, they want to keep rewriting the rules of society in order to improve it. They genuinely believe that the strongest societies change to improve things.

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Second, liberals and conservatives differ in their preference for hierarchy versus equality. Conservatives prefer hierarchical structures whereas liberals prefer equality.

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If you think about it, there is no reason that these two things should necessarily go together (equality & change/ preservation & hierarchy).

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In fact, there is reason to believe that the only reason they do go together is because the arc of history is such that change tends to mean more equality and conservation tends to mean more hierarchy. If you look at the course of equality over history, you see people being given more and more rights. You see fewer and fewer kings. You see less and less slavery.

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There is some evidence that, when these things are not aligned, liberals and conservatives do not function like we normally see them function. For example, political psychologists studied the people of Russia in the 1990s.

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At that point, the communist governments that was dying off was authoritarian but also espoused economic equality.

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The breakup of the soviet union led to a huge change in society where things were moving from relative equality for most people to enormous gaps in income and a great increase in inequality. In other words, the direction of the change we tend to see in the world had flipped.

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So what then happens to what we think of as liberalism versus conservativism?

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Political psychologists wanted to know that too and they measured Russian people’s attitudes towards preserving the system versus change. They also measured their desire for equality versus hierarchy.

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What they found was the opposite of what we traditionally find.

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Whereas we normally find that wanting society to stay the same = preference for hierarchy (traditional conservatism) and wanting society to change = preference for equality (traditional liberalism). In 1990s Russia, we saw that a Hobbesian belief that we are best off when society stays the same = preference for equality; whereas whereas a Lockesian belief that we are best when in society change = preference for hierarchy.

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In other words, we tend to think of being liberal as two things -— being ok with things changing in order for things to improve and wanting equality. We tend to think of conservatism as also being two things — being very against society changing and wanting hierarchy.

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But those are different things that are only held together because of general trends of how societies tend to change.

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What Trump and his people did is untie this things in our political structure.

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We live in a time when many people are hugely unhappy with where society currently is. We see this rage in the fallout from the murder of the healthcare CEO. Many people are desperate for the system to change.

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Many people want is change. More and more people. And they want that badly. They believe that things will be better if society changes.

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The party of change keeps winning — Obama promised change. He won. Trump promised change. He won. Biden promised change. He won. Trump promised change. He won.

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It used to be that Republicans were against huge changes. It used to be that a lot of Americans were also against change. That is part of why people thought Republicans couldn’t win again post-Obama,

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But Trump changed that. He made his the party of change. He actually made it the party of tearing everything to the ground.

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The Democrats are now the party of conserving things.

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We are the party people like Liz Cheney support because they want the system to remain. Honestly, I’d be a little nervous about everything collapsing too. I get it.

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This is why older people were the ones to show up for Kamala and younger people for Trump (reversing historical trends). Because older people tend to not want things to change too much and younger people have very little invested in the system.

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This is important, because it is not necessarily that people voted for him because they are against equality (which he is). It is because he tied the narrative of changing everything to the narrative of inequality.

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So some of his voters are assholes who want inequality — white supremacists, nazis, assholes.

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But some are people who just really want society to change. Young people.

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The irony, as well all know, is that Trump is actually going to change things in a way that will make things worse for the people who voted for him. Oh he’ll change things, but not in the way they want.

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Why is this good news for us? Well, for one, it gives people who have actual power to make policy and set the course for our party some knowledge into what is really motivating voters.

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But that isn’t us. I, at least, have no say in those matters.

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It is good news for me because in two years and in four years, Trump will be the agent of no change. He will be the status quo. We saw this last time — as president, trump couldn’t win at all. His power comes from being an outsider who will make things better. When he no longer is an outsider — and it is clear he can’t make things better, he is an anvil on their votes.

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These next years will be tough. But they are not the end. Trump can’t win as an insider. He’ll lose those votes. He needs that coalition and he can only get it from the outside.

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We can do this. We can holdfast and protect what we can and then we can win in 2026 and 2028.

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At that point, we really will need to think about how very very angry people are about things like our healthcare system. We need to really think about ways to make sure the public sees what we are doing to dramatically change things. I love Biden and he did more to ACTUALLY change things than any president in memory. But because he did it all from the inside, low info voters didn’t notice it at all. We need to figure out how to present change as coming from OUTSIDE the system and as transformative.

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But that is tomorrow's problem and it is out of my pay grade.

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What I need to do is remind you all that this is not the end. That we will take back the government. That elections will not disappear overnight.

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Why am I hopeful?

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Here is why:

A Glimmer of Hope There are two developments that have legal experts lifting their heads up out of their hands to pay attention. My own eyes lit up when I scoured the legal badlands for any sign of life and spotted two little sprouts poking through the cold ground. Democrats Shock MAGA with Surprise Moves This Week Ben Meiselas discusses the early swearing-in of Democrats Adam Schiff and Andy Kim as U.S. Senators, surprising and infuriating MAGA Republicans. Both Schiff and Kim won their elections, and were given gubernatorial approval to be sworn-in early due special circumstances, allowing them to gain seniority and participate in key Senate hearings. Kim is replacing disgraced Senator Bob Menendez in New Jersey, and Schiff is filling the seat once held by Dianne Feinstein, who passed away in September of 2023. Meiselas also highlights Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s efforts to secure Democratic control of the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) by advancing the nominations of Lauren McFerrin and Joshua Didleberg; a move to shield the Board from figures like Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and other Trump allies, who want to weaken the NLRB's power to protect American workers. 2024 election litigation data is revealed Despite the surge of 2024 litigation seeking to restrict voting access, pro-voting forces saw almost three times as many victories as losses this cycle. Check out what happened in voting rights lawsuits this year with our 2023-2024 litigation report.

The Russian-Iranian alliance fighting in Ukraine and throughout the Middle East has suffered another significant blow. Israel has dramatically weakened their proxies, Hamas and Hizbollah, and now a very anti-Iran/Russia government will take over in Syria. For us here in the US this huge strategic setback for Putin will matter in coming foreign and domestic policy fights and in the battle for some of Trump’s very Russian-aligned nominees - Herseth, Gabbard and Kennedy. These tiny buds may not represent much just yet, but there they are in writing, and they could begin to represent some actual judicial limits on Trump’s power. It is honestly a bit shocking to see in light of everything we have recently experienced. SCOTUS denies review of the gag order It was a terse, one sentence order: “The application for stay addressed to Justice Alito and referenced to the Court is denied.” With that one line, the U.S. Supreme Court, acting through Justice Alito (!!), denied review of a New York ruling that had affirmed the gag order in Trump’s Manhattan criminal case. Why is this important? Imagine the opposite for a moment. The Court could have said it wants to issue a stay and to review the gag order imposed by Judge Juan Merchan. And that would have peeled away some of the last vestiges of judicial independence. Seen within an even larger context, as legal analyst Harry Litman observed on his Talking Feds channel, the Supreme Court wasn’t prepared to act proactively to protect Trump from the orders and the power of a New York Superior Court judge, at least when it came to what he could and could not say. That implicitly means that the judiciary—even a sole judge like Merchan inside a county courtroom—can continue to hold the most powerful man in the country under his sway and answerable to his rulings. Trump remains subject to Judge Merchan’s jurisdiction, and the Supreme Court has effectively signaled it isn’t interested in making an exception to the way things are done when it comes to gag orders, notwithstanding who the defendant is. Bragging rights When District Attorney Alvin Bragg filed his case for falsifying business records against Donald Trump, many scoffed and dismissed his actions as inconsequential. Going after the former president for making hush money payments to a porn star, then covering up the trail, seemed like small potatoes, especially stacked next to trying to overturn the election or stealing top government secrets. Trump understandably is now trying hard to get that verdict thrown out. After all, he still faces a sentencing that could hang over his presidency. But he faces some tough hurdles in that quest. Bragg agrees. Yesterday, he showed he is made of fairly stern stuff and is willing to go toe-to-toe with the president-elect. Bragg filed a massive, 82-page opposition brief arguing the case should proceed and Trump should be sentenced anyway. It would admittedly be a baller move to actually hand down a sentence just before the inauguration, even if it’s just probation, especially if Trump is likely to violate its terms. From a broader sense, it also matters that Bragg is not easing up on Trump at all. On the contrary, he’s saying to Judge Merchan, “Let’s keep going. Let’s get to sentencing and the inevitable appeals.”

The Fall Of Assad Is An Enormous Blow To Putin On Bluesky this morning the Ukrainian commentator Anton Geraschenko posted an English translation of a Russian blogger coming to terms with what a strategic disaster Assad’s fall is for Russia. Khmenimim is the Russian air base in Syria, Tartus it’s naval base: Bashar al-Assad is in Moscow, and our military is stuck and blocked in Syria, Libya, Africa. Our bases have been completely blocked, no one is allowed in or out, all transportation routes have been cut off for now. Khmeimim is surrounded by fighters (Russian Foreign Ministry calls it the opposition) – fighters are at checkpoints, and on duty inside the base. There are periodic attempts at provocations, shelling at some bases. Tartus is abandoned, ships with military personnel are in the coastal zone. The preliminary agreement on the stay of our contingent is 75 days. After that, withdrawal. There are instructors, consultants, the "African Corps", the Ministry of Defense and the Special Operations Forces at the Russian military bases. Our people are holding on bravely, all are ready, if anything happens. Negotiations on Syria are now underway between Russia, Turkey, Iran and others. The issue of Russia's military bases in Syria is open, if there was already a guarantee, then no one would shell them and our people could move freely. Then our stranded military could fly out of Khmeimim. And now the question of how to get them out of there by sea is being considered. If we leave Syria, then the point of the Defense Ministry's African Corps is destroyed? By losing Syria, including as a transportation hub, we lose access to Africa. Russia's withdrawal from Syria will give Turkey an opportunity to become a player in the European energy market. Building a pipeline to Europe. Russian bases can be used as a way to induce Russia to make peace on terms acceptable to Ukraine and the US. The Washington Post has a great deep dive on what the possible loss of these bases mean to Russia and it’s ability to project power in the Middle East and Africa. An excerpt: The loss of Tartus would have a significant impact on the Russian navy, which attempts to maintain a permanent presence in the eastern Mediterranean. With the loss of that port, and with similar facilities in the Black Sea vulnerable to the war in Ukraine, Janes analysts suggested Monday, Russia would have to redeploy ships and submarines to Baltic Sea. Russia used the Hmeimim air base as a hub not only to strike Syrian rebels, but also to support mercenaries in Libya, the Central African Republic and Sudan In a new WaPo column, Syrian rebels had help from Ukraine in humiliating Russia, David Ignatius writes about Ukraine’s support of the Syrian rebels: The Syrian rebels who swept to power in Damascus last weekend received drones and other support from Ukrainian intelligence operatives who sought to undermine Russia and its Syrian allies, according to sources familiar with Ukrainian military activities abroad. Ukrainian intelligence sent about 20 experienced drone operators and about 150 first-person-view drones to the rebel headquarters in Idlib, Syria, four to five weeks ago to help Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the leading rebel group based there, the knowledgeable sources said. The aid from Kyiv played only a modest role in overthrowing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Western intelligence sources believe. But it was notable as part of a broader Ukrainian effort to strike covertly at Russian operations in the Middle East, Africa and inside Russia itself. Anne Applebaum, The Atlantic: the end of the Assad regime creates something new, and not only in Syria. There is nothing worse than hopelessness, nothing more soul-destroying than pessimism, grief, and despair. The fall of a Russian- and Iranian-backed regime offers, suddenly, the possibility of change. The future might be different. And that possibility will inspire hope all around the world Ammar Azzouz, The Guardian: I wept and wept as I watched the Syrian regime fall. At last, I have a home again. Iran’s annus horribilis one implication of President Bashar al-Assad’s downfall seems clear: It caps a remarkably bad year for Iran. The alliance Iran leads — the “axis of resistance” — has unraveled, as my colleague Alissa Rubin writes. One of Iran’s Middle Eastern rivals, Saudi Arabia, is now in a stronger position as a result. So is Israel, which Iran has long sought to destroy. The United States, for its part, just elected a president whom Iran so despises that its agents considered a plot to assassinate him. Much of Iran’s weakened position stems from the fallout of the Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel by Hamas, which Iran finances. That attack intensified the conflict between Iran and Israel. In April, Israel bombed the Iranian Embassy in Damascus, Syria’s capital, and Iran responded by firing more than 300 drones and missiles into Israel. That response was a failure. Israel worked with other countries, including the U.S., Jordan and Saudi Arabia, to shoot down nearly every missile and drone. The outcome highlighted regional opposition to Iran — and it made Iran look militarily weak. When Iran inaugurated its new president this summer, one of Hamas’s leaders, Ismail Haniyeh, traveled to Tehran for the celebration. While Haniyeh was staying in a government guesthouse, Israel killed him with a remote-controlled bomb. The assassination was another reason to doubt Iran’s strength. Israeli intelligence evidently carried out the bombing by penetrating Iran’s government. In late November, Hezbollah accepted a cease-fire that my colleague Ben Hubbard described as a de facto defeat. Like Hamas, Hezbollah is no longer the threat that it was. The overthrow of Syria’s government may be even more damaging to Iran than the degradation of Hamas and Hezbollah. Syria is a nation, not merely a militant group, and its new government will be run by a Sunni Muslim group that is hostile to Iran’s Shiite government. As Hassan Shemshadi, a regional expert in Tehran, told The Times this weekend, “For Iran, Syria has been the backbone of our regional presence.” Farnaz Fassihi, a Times reporter who has been covering Iran for 25 years, called Assad’s fall “a monumental development that will reshape the balance of power in the Middle East.”

What happened in Syria is nothing less than the final leg of a revolution that started in 2011 and lasted thirteen years. Just three weeks ago, the dictatorship of Vladimir Putin's Arab protégé seemed stable and under the firm control of all but two small parts of the Syrian hinterlands. Assad did not have the north central rebel city of Idlib and the northeastern Kurdish regions in his grasp. The Northeastern areas were taken by force from the Islamic State terrorist group by the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and, by extension, the US Special Forces who advised and guided them. Assad’s forces fell quickly. The last week made it clear who the winners and losers were. The Losers: Russia and al-Assad In 2013, (Assad) openly dropped chemical weapons, including Sarin and mustard gas, against his citizens… Russia announced it was part of a new global strategy to show that its ability to project power was now equal to that of the USA as a superpower. Moscow deployed fighter jets and soldiers to Syria and pushed rebel forces back to tiny enclaves. For years Russia’s power seemed to stabilize Assad as 2/3rds of the country was back under his control. Until a few weeks ago, that is. When the (Turkish-backed Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) HTS and SDF blitzed the country, the skeletonized Russian forces Putin left in Syria (all of who are now under siege may likely surrender) collapsed as well. They were a weak force because Putin needed every spare tank and armored vehicle sent back to Russia for his losing war with Ukraine. So, Russian troops were reduced to a few aircraft and armored trucks. Russia will likely lose even those remaining assets to the Syrian rebel forces. Iran: The Biggest Loser In 1979, Ayatollah Khomeini took power and swiftly implemented a secret plan to confront two major powers in the Near East: 1) the United States-Saudi Arabia, and 2) Israel. Israel's presence was an anathema to Iran. … Now, with the loss of the entirety of Syria, Iran no longer has a foothold west of Baghdad by which to support or intimidate Israel. The loss of the Syrian armed forces means that the biggest dog in the Middle East, with the sharpest teeth is now Israel. The Winners: Israel, Syria, Saudi Arabia and Smiling Joe Biden. Israel comes out on top as the fall of the Syrian Government meant the end of its role as a "confrontation state" that started in 1948. Technically, Israel has no enemy nations on its borders as of this week. For Saudi Arabi and the Gulf states. Their secret cooperation with the United States to arm Sunnah rebels has finally paid off and Iran is now a problem across the Arabian Gulf and… no longer surrounding the Kingdom. That’s a major win for a few thousand American anti-tank missiles and uniforms they have provided since 2011. Most Despicable Losers? Assad’s American Cheerleaders Trump's nominee for Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard. … The loss of Syria also sparks the end of Russia’s plans to sustain mercenaries in Africa. So how long before Putin wakes up and finds himself sharing an uber to China with Bashar al-Assad and Edward Snowden? Only time will tell. How does President Joe Biden win here? Be sure Donald Trump says this is not in America's best interests. Still, you can be also sure that the Central Intelligence Agency, working with Kurdish forces and the Southern Syrian Jebat al-Nusra rebels, who it should be noted were the first rebel forces in Damascus, arranged for much of the intelligence necessary for a blitz of this magnitude to happen. Joe won't tell anyone, but by the end of Trump's first month, it will become clear that US intelligence and military were neck deep in supporting Israel, the Kurds, and even Ukraine in making sure both Assad and Putin lost this country.

The US has given $20bn (£15bn) to Ukraine, funded by the profits of seized Russian assets. The economic support forms a significant part of a $50bn (£39bn) package agreed by G7 member nations announced in June. Funding the aid through frozen assets means Russia has to "bear the costs of its illegal war, instead of taxpayers," US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said. The US Treasury said on Tuesday that it had transferred the $20bn to a World Bank fund, where it will be available for Ukraine to draw from.

Everyone has a role to play. Military officers must resist illegal orders; civil servants must uphold their obligations, refuse to lie and utilize whistleblower mechanisms; judges must deal harshly with attempts to harass innocent people; lawyers must provide pro bono services to defend them; and legislators must use the bully pulpit, oversight power and other tools (e.g., the filibuster) to throw sand in the wheels of immoral and dangerous schemes. Ordinary citizens can demonstrate opposition through their votes in off-year elections. They can peacefully protest, donate to groups that defend civil liberties, speak up for vulnerable people Trump targets and support independent, investigative journalism. State and local leaders must do everything in their power to defend their fellow Americans from federal government abuse and fill in the gaps when the federal government withdraws help (e.g., defending women’s reproductive rights).

“Whatever happens, stay alive.

Don't die before you're dead.

Don't lose yourself, don't lose hope, don't lose direction.

Stay alive, with yourself, with every cell of your body, with every fiber of your skin.

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