(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . WYFP? Syrianly, has Aleppo fallen [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2024-11-30 MFP: So many moving parts. Major combat happening in Syria, as Russian forces withdraw and Aleppo may have fallen under rebel control. Pro-regime forces have failed to mount an effective defense against the surprise offensive by opposition forces. Rebels had seized most of Syria’s largest city, Aleppo, as of Saturday, according to a war monitoring group and to fighters who were combing the streets in search of any remaining pockets of government forces. The antigovernment rebels said they had faced little resistance on the ground in Aleppo. But Syrian government warplanes responded with airstrikes on the city for the first time since 2016, according to the war monitoring group, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Aleppo came to a near standstill on Saturday, with many residents staying indoors for fear of what the sudden flip in control might mean, witnesses said. Others did venture out into the streets, welcoming the fighters and hugging them. Some rebels tried to reassure city residents and sent out at least one van to distribute bread. The rapid advance on Aleppo came just days into a surprise rebel offensive launched on Wednesday against the autocratic regime of President Bashar al-Assad. The developments are both the most serious challenge to Mr. al-Assad’s rule and the most intense escalation in years in a civil war that had been mostly dormant. www.nytimes.com/... Where does everyone stand? 1. The UAE and Saudi Arabia support Assad, but not to the extent that he becomes too strong, remains Iran’s ally, and continues to allow arming Hezbollah route, nor so weak that the rebels win and establish a democracy with rights. something they consider their nightmare. This is why, at the onset of the Syrian revolution, they did everything in their power to turn it into an armed conflict, supported multiple factions, and had their clerics issue jihad fatwas. They later pulled out, creating divisions to weaken the Syrian opposition. 2. Russia guaranteed Netanyahu that its presence in Syria would ensure no strikes against Israel from Syrian territory. 3. The US and the liberal establishment supported the Kurds and secular movements, as their nightmare is the rebels succeeding and establishing an Islamic state. 4. Israel does not want Assad to fall; he is the perfect head of state for Syria, too weak to retaliate and too strong to overthrow. If Israel wanted to assassinate him, it would have targeted his palaces. Israeli airstrikes in Syria have mainly focused on Iranian associates or militias allegedly linked to Iran, with occasional losses among Assad’s army officers. These airstrikes primarily serve to pressure Assad to stop facilitating Hezbollah’s arms route. 5. Turkey’s biggest fear is Kurdish separatists. It wants strong Syrian borders to contain them, whether under Assad or the rebels. Turkey has even pressured rebels to refrain from attacking Assad regime-controlled territories. This Turkish green light came only after Assad refused to meet Erdogan for a resolution to the Syrian crisis under UAE pressure. What Turkey will gain from this is the ability to send over a million Syrian refugees back to their homes if the rebels capture cities from the Assad regime. 6. Iran wants a strong Assad regime to ensure the continuation of Hezbollah’s arms route. 7.The Palestinian factions: There has been no official statement regarding the recent Aleppo operation from Hamas or Islamic Jihad, except for the PFLP, which condemned it and labeled the rebels as terrorists. This was expected, as the PFLP and Ba’ath Party share common principles, both pan-Arabist and socialist (on paper). warfare analysis It's difficult to imagine Russia sending aircraft or ground forces to Syria in large numbers now given the operational requirements in Ukraine. We may be looking at a rare opportunity to expel Russia from Syria and degrade Russia's ability to project power into the Mediterranean. It remains unclear whether the Kremlin will be able to deploy additional assets to support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime given the high tempo and operational requirements for Russia to continue conducting operations in Ukraine – the Kremlin’s priority theater. Russia withdrew S-300 systems from Syria back to Russia in 2022, likely to support Russian operations in Ukraine. We also collected unconfirmed reports in March 2022 that Russia withdrew Ru soldiers and Wagner militants from Syria, likely to support Russian operations in Ukraine. @georgewbarros 7 DECEMBER Mortifyd 14 DECEMBER AVAILABLE 21 DECEMBER AVAILABLE 28 DECEMBER blue oregon 7 JANUARY AVAILABLE 14 JANUARY AVAILABLE 21 JANUARY AVAILABLE 28 JANUARY AVAILABLE [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/11/30/2289474/-WYFP-Syrianly-has-Aleppo-fallen?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=more_community&pm_medium=web Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/