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On Your Mark, Get Set....Wait For It... [1]

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Date: 2024-11-20  

Avian influenza H5N1 continues its slow march on humans. So far it has not had a reassortment event that could set a pandemic in motion, but random mutations have allowed it to infect over forty species of mammals. List of mammals proven to have caught H5N1. Minks were the first to pass it among themselves.

There may be a lot of undetected cases even now. wastewater surveillance finds H5N1 starting March 2024 in Texas. In the cities, not on the farms. Bright spot here, if it is circulating without killing people, it is less virulent than we fear. Dark side, we won’t know when it really gets its legs until it DOES start killing people.

Recently a teenager in Canada became critically ill with it. He caught a strain more like the wild bird type, not like the dairy cattle strain (which has not been found in Canada yet). No one has been able to find the source of his exposure, and no one near him has been ill or tested positive.

Though there have been outbreaks of H5N1 among poultry in British Columbia, the teen did not have exposure to them – but he or she did have contact with several pets, including dogs, cats and reptiles. It is possible one of these animals encountered a dead bird or animal and passed the virus on to the teen, Rasmussen said, adding: “I don’t think that people realize how often we can come into contact with wild animals, including birds.”

But the sequencing of his viral sample shows a concerning mutation. Bird flu mutation - The Guardian. The technical description of what mutated where went right over my head, but it makes the flu better at entering human cells.

It’s going to happen sooner or later. And heaven help us, it will happen under the most feckless anti-science, anti-health administration in history. And Americans are actively resisting the kind of surveillance that would catch a problem early.

What can you do?

Remember all the stuff they told us at the beginning of Covid? It was all based on experience with flu. Stockpile masks NOW, the price will go up if tariffs are imposed. N95s are best, but those cloth masks we made will be good too, or the blue surgical ones. Flu is mostly droplet borne, less evasive than the coronaviruses. Also remember fomites (droplets left on surfaces). Wash your hands, use hand sanitizer, don’t touch your face, all those good habits. Clean surfaces. Protect your eyes. The dairy workers who are catching it are getting splashed in the face with infected milk. This may explain why the dairy cases have been so much milder, because it is passing by contact rather than by breathing in. The cows are getting it in their udders, by contact with the milking machines; the workers by contact with milk. Some cows recover slowly, but some become very ill, and die or are euthanized. The dairy cats, on the other hand, are drinking the milk, and a lot of them have died. Raw milk is an absolute no-no for SO MANY reasons.

Keep up with news from non-American sources like the Guardian. You will hear about things sooner and with less spin. If anyone has really good epidemiological sources to suggest, please drop them in the comments. If on social media, they should be on BlueSky or Mastodon, not Twitter!

Now is a good time to stockpile what you will need if you have to stay home for an extended period, or if products become scarce in the stores. Shelf stable food, meds and vitamins, cleaning products, personal care products, paper products. But don’t expect any level of government to impose a shutdown; unless you are in a very blue state, you are probably on your own. So have a plan to protect yourself at work, don’t let anyone talk you out of masking. WHOSE BODY IS IT? Would they tell you not to wear a hardhat on a construction site because it looked funny to the customers? Nuh-uh. Be ready to be loud, proud, and stubborn.

In the meantime, do not touch any wild bird or animal without gloves and mask. Dispose of any dead ones in tightly sealed bags and wash up afterward. Keep your pets away from them too. Use equal care when cleaning or filling any bird feeder you use. Clean your shoes when you come home. It is migration season and a lot of asymptomatic wild waterfowl are passing overhead. The virus could be almost anywhere. Note that among the mammals that can catch it, mice are now included. You should never clean up a mouse nest without PPE anyway [see: hantavirus], this is just another reason.

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