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Forecast Predictions after the 2024 Presidential Election [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2024-11-20  

Those who voted for Donald J. Trump seem to believe he will improve the U.S. economy, lower inflation, and kick out millions of “illegal immigrants” who are siphoning off hard earned money from U.S. taxpayers. These typically older, male, lower- to middle-income people (more likely to be living in rural areas and who don’t have a college degree) also trusted Republicans when they abruptly killed their own immigration bill after Trump sabotaged it in February, 2024. They trusted Fox “News” as talk show hosts hailed Trump’s “America First” policies, but brushed aside his threats of retribution for “the enemy within” or the “fascists” who are “so evil” and “dangerous for our country.” They chuckled when Trump call his Democratic opponent “low IQ“, “Lyin Kamala”, or “Crazy Kamabla”.

Those who voted for Kamala Harris feel overwhelmed, anxious, afraid, or despondent about America’s future. These typically younger, female, and middle- to upper-income people (more likely to be living in an urban / suburban area and who have a college degree) remain frankly confused about why and how Trump got elected. After all, in October, 2024, the U.S. economy was strong. The unemployment rate had decreased to 4.1%, monthly wages were increasing, inflation had decreased to 2.1%, labor productivity had increased by 2.2%, and many other positive changes were happening (i.e., initiatives for combating climate change, improving human rights, decreasing prescription medication costs, improving early childhood programs, improving mental health services, or expanding NATO).

Whoever you, whatever you believe, January 20, 2025 is creeping towards all Americans. The consequences of the 2024 election will smash into American shores. Please do not tune out, dismiss, deny, or fail to prepare for the forecast below. Please get informed, organized, and prepared for Hurricane Donald (predicted to be a category 5 storm) from 2025 to 2029.

Twenty predictions include a:

1) Decrease in the U.S. Democracy Index score of 7.85 and global Democracy Index ranking (#29) in 2023 due to a shift towards authoritarianism or a more “hybrid democracy”. In his first term, Trump broke numerous long-standing political norms, instigated a violent insurrection and was caught on tape attempting to overturn the results of a free and fair election that he lost to Joe Biden in 2020. In 2025, he will again appoint unqualified people to powerful positions based on their loyalty to himself. He will exploit institutional weaknesses and further deepen the divisions of a hyper-polarized country. With a Republican majority in the House and Senate, plus a hyper-conservative majority in the Supreme Court that previously ruled that Trump is basically immune from criminal prosecution, the U.S. democratic system of ‘checks and balances’ will fly out of a shattered window. Trump will repeatedly abuse power, behave like an authoritarian dictator, attempt to suppress the rights of a free press, prosecute or jail his political opponents, use the National Guard or military against U.S. citizens, and attempt to rig the elections in 2026 and 2028.

2) Decrease in the U.S. Human Freedom Index (personal and economic freedom) score (8.39) and global Human Freedom ranking (#17) in 2023. In 2024, Switzerland had the highest score and overall best claim to call itself “the land of the free”. By 2028, both personal and economic freedoms (which have two separate sets of closely intertwined indicators) will become even more restricted in the United States. By the way, the “freedom” for Americans to easily purchase or openly carry weapons of war (like an AK-47) without universal background checks or common sense regulations impinges on the safety and freedom of others in society.

3) Increase in social and political hyperpolarization as measured by public surveys, election data, and media analysis. Trump’s rise has been fueled by divisive gaslighting, i.e., psychological manipulation of more vulnerable people by normalizing fear and paranoia, increasing the visibility of disinformation and conspiracy theories, bending the truth, and repeatedly lying without remorse until people start doubting basic facts, become deceived, and develop fixed, self-centered and bigoted beliefs about people outside of their own group or MAGA klan.

4) Increase economic inequality, i.e., increase in the rates of homelessness, poverty, near-poverty, and the number of millionaires and billionaires. Average incomes fell in 2019 compared with 2018, so most of the 160 million taxpaying American households were worse off, even before the 2019 Covid pandemic struck during Trump’s first term. From January, 2025 to January, 2029, the poor will almost certainly get even poorer and the rich will get even richer during Trump’s second term.

5) Increase in inflation. Sixteen Noble prize-winning economists warned Americans that inflation . will rise to 6-9.3% by 2026 if Trump’s proposals get adopted. Economic policy proposals like across-the-board tariffs, pressuring the Federal Reserve to alter interest rates because of Trump’s misinformed ideas or short-term political gain, and deporting millions of immigrants will result in a substantial drop in US economic output and a sudden surge in inflation.

6) Increase in protectionist trade policies. Trump’s "America First" approach will increase tariffs and trade barriers, escalating tensions with China and the EU but U.S. sanctions on Russia will curiously become more relaxed. A trade war with China is expected to intensify over trade imbalances and intellectual property.

7) Increase in the national debt and Debt-to-Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio. The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget said Trump’s economic plan would add $7.5 trillion to US debt over the next decade. Trump increased the gross federal debt by $7.8 trillion during his first term. Trump’s proposal for massive tax cuts will lead to a substantially higher national deficit and borrowing costs. A higher national debt-to-GDP ratio could contribute to inflationary pressures, especially with high interest rates.

8) Increase of global warming. The average global temperature will accelerate and prematurely exceed 2° Celsius due a steady increase in the monthly mean atmospheric CO₂ concentration (426.91 parts per million in June, 2024), and monthly globally-averaged atmospheric methane abundance (1932.24 parts per billion in November, 2024). Once in office, Trump will again leave the Paris Climate Agreement and take action on his promise to “drill baby drill” in an attempt to lower gas prices. Expect the Biden administration’s environmental laws to reduce vehicle tailpipe emissions, and pollution (from power plants and oil and gas producers) to be greatly weakened or eliminated. An acceleration in climate change will destroy many thousands of U.S. communities, exacerbate social-economic inequities, harm people’s physical and mental health, destroy entire ecosystems, and cost the USA an estimated $150 billion each year. With every incremental increase of global warming, costly damages are expected to dramatically accelerate. Paradoxically, pro- MAGA states will be disproportionately impacted by climate change. Hurricanes and storm surges will intensify. Sea level rise under the “Intermediate Sea Level Scenario”, is projected to be higher along the Atlantic versus Pacific coast, and greatest along the western Gulf coast.

9) Increase in deportations of undocumented immigrants, as measured by the Migration Policy Institute. Those with criminal records will be prioritized, which makes logical sense. However, there are an estimated 13 million undocumented migrants living in the US - an umbrella term that includes those who entered the US illegally, overstayed their visas, or have protected status to avoid deportation. Workplace raids will become more common. The National Guard and military aircraft will detain and deport undocumented migrants. A big conundrum is that there are 5 million U.S. citizens born to at least one undocumented immigrant and 4.4 million children or adolescents 18 years or younger who have an undocumented parent who could face deportation. Lawful mass deportations will cost taxpayers billions of dollars and in 2016, it cost an average of $10,900 to apprehend, detain, process and remove a single undocumented immigrant from the United States. Mass deportations will tear thousands of families apart, and have a ripple effect on the U.S. economy. While there could be long-term cost-savings in reduced health care- and education-related expenditures, there would likely be sudden increases in the cost of food, hotels, goods, and services, plus a sudden spike in the number of homeless families where the ‘breadwinner’ got deported. Overall, lawful mass deportations would cause the national debt-to-GDP ratio to substantially increase.

10) Increase in human right violations, i.e., economic, social, civil, or political right violations, compared to the actions of the Biden/Harris administration and as measured by the Human Rights Measurement Initiative (HRMI) Human right violations under Trump will selectively target young (most especially pregnant and disadvantaged) women, LGBTIQA+ youth, non-English-speaking (mostly Spanish-speaking) people, families with an undocumented immigrant, and African American males. Large public protests and social unrest will naturally increase after alleged violations of human rights become widely publicized.

11) Increase in the number and percentage of Americans without health care insurance or who are under-insured (especially increases in health insurance premiums for people living with a chronic physical or mental health condition) once the current protections of the Affordable Healthcare Act (ACA) get dismantled. With fewer Americans (especially children) receiving high-quality preventative services (including recommended vaccines), the overall cost of health care could increase. Major budget cuts should be expected for Medicaid, which provides coverage and services to lower-income and disabled people, most especially children and adolescents. It is unclear how Medicare, which serves people over 65, will be impacted under the Trump administration.

12) Increase in rates of gun violence. In 2022, 48,204 people died by firearms in the USA (about one death every 11 minutes). Over 27,032 people died by firearm suicide, 19,651 died by firearm homicide, 463 died by unintentional gun injury, and an estimated 643 were fatally shot by law enforcement. Over 200 Americans visit an emergency department for nonfatal firearm injuries daily. Gun violence statistics will only worsen — that is, if research is still being funded and conducted to accurately measure these numbers.

13) Increase in the number of children growing up in the foster care system due to in-utero-drug or alcohol exposure, child neglect or abuse, as measured by The Adoption and Foster Care Analysis and Reporting System (AFCARS). About 369,000 children were in foster care in 2022 but sadly, this number could explode between 2025 to 2029 due to contraception and abortion services being severely restricted or outright banned in an increasing number of red states.

14) Decrease in funding and support for education. Making the Department of Education more “efficient” essentially means less federal-level funding, grants, data-tracking, oversight, and support for 1) early childhood programs like Early Head Start and Head Start, 2) special education (Title 1) programs, 3) public K-12 schools, 4) vocational training programs, and 5) financial aid programs for college students. Overall, these changes will — by far —disproportionately impact children from disadvantaged backgrounds, most especially those or who grew up in poverty or are living with a developmental disability or mental health disorder. Making matters worse, a higher percentage of tax dollars will be shifted towards private religious schools and siphoned away from public schools with a higher percentage of children growing up with a disadvantaged psychosocial situation.

15) Increase in the prevalence of developmental disabilities and mental health disorders. In 2021 the prevalence of “any diagnosed developmental disability” in children aged 3–17 years was 8.56%. In 2021-2022, the prevalence of children ages 3-17 years diagnosed with a mental or behavioral health condition was 13%. These increases are the natural consequence of increased rates of economic inequality, inflation, human right violations, worsening health care (and mental health) coverage, gun violence, child neglect and/or abuse leading to increased rates of foster care placement, but decreased federal-level educational funding and support for children with disadvantaged backgrounds.

16) Decrease in international trust and funding for organizations like NATO, World Health Organization (WHO) and World Trade Organization (WTO), which will increase tensions, and decrease trust between the U.S. and many other countries. In particular, Trump is viewed unfavorably among Latin America, and European countries, most especially the Nordic nations, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. With the exception of Russia, Trump will further lower the U.S favorability ratings.

17) Increase in the hyper-conservative leanings of the Supreme Court and other federal courts for many decades. In 2024, the Supreme Court is the most conservative in 90 years. The Roe v. Wade precedent was overturned. The court issued a broadly worded opinion making it even more difficult to regulate guns. In a major environmental case, the court curbed the EPA's ability to combat climate change. Justices Clarence Thomas (age 80), Samuel Alito (age 74) and Sonia Sotomayor (age 70), who has been living with type 1 diabetes since age seven, will be replaced with younger, pro-MAGA judges. That means that a women’s right to birth control and abortion services, along with LGBTIQA+ rights, will be even more in jeopardy. Except future rulings that will undermine the regulatory power to improve public health and safety. The ‘fundamental’ Constitutional concept of separation between church and state will be essentially ignored. Expect the court to further expand taxpayer / public funding options for private religious schools, which will weaken funding and support or public education.

18) Increase in Trump Cabinet officials, White House Staff members, and military generals who express concerns about Trump’s mental fitness, or become embroiled in legal scandals, or resign. Don’t be surprised to hear about intense disagreements between Trump and the Vice President-elect JD Vance, or a falling out with Elon Musk, or other Trump administration officials. Meanwhile, the Department of Justice will be packed with unqualified Trump loyalists would never dare to prosecute Trump-related crimes, but will enforce Trump’s vindictive whims of projection to attack his perceived enemies.



19) Increase in Trump’s pathological lying. Eleven percent of what Trump said in 2024 was trustworthy according to Politifact. As of November 10, 2024, 3% were “true”, 8% were “mostly true”, 11% were half true, 19% were “mostly false”, 38% were “false”, and 19% were “pants on fire” false. There will be a higher percentage of “false” and “pants on fire” false statements from 2025 to 2029.

20) Increase in the total number of Trump’s civil and criminal cases as being tracked by the Associated Press. Astonishingly, there will simultaneously be an increase in the Presidential powers of immunity to avoid Trump from being ever prosecuted or convicted of a crime.

In addition to Trump’s pathological lying and criminal record, what else will get worse? The answer is Trump’s malignant narcissism. As of October 2023, over 70,000 mental health professionals signed a petition known as the "Duty to Warn" initiative warning the public that Trump is mentally “unfit”, despite professional injunctions against diagnosing public figures who have not been examined. Experts have repeatedly expressed strong concerns about Trump likely a dangerous combination of psychological problems including: 1) narcissistic personality disorder, 2) anti-social personality disorder, 3) paranoid personality disorder, 4) sadistic and manipulative behaviors, and 5) the frequent use of psychological projection.

Trump’s rise back to power is now part of history. The American free press (for now) is still analyzing and discussing what happened. Hopefully, they will now see that the normalcy during the Biden/Harris administration was in fact the eye of MAGA storm.

Over the next 2 months, everything possible must be done to prepare for Hurricane Donald. If needed, move to higher ground. This unnatural, highly volatile storm will remain over you, your family, and community for many years. A “wait and see” attitude is not wise when you realize that you are in the eye of a MAGA storm.



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