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Abortion and the 2024 Election: A Critical Analysis [1]

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Date: 2024-11-16  

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Conclusion:

Abortion rights won decisively at the ballot box yet the presidential candidate who championed these rights lost. Democrats, encouraged by their success in 2022, bet big on abortion rights as their winning issue. But they misread the electorate in two crucial ways.

First, they assumed the mobilizing power of abortion rights would carry forward from 2022. It didn’t. While the Dobbs decision sparked an immediate surge in political engagement in an election held a few months after the decision, the issue did not appear to mobilize abortion rights supporters in 2024 any more than it had in presidential elections held before the Dobbs decision.

Second, they underestimated voters’ willingness to split their tickets. Some voters who showed up to protect abortion rights in their states and send pro-choice representatives to Congress didn’t see a contradiction in backing Trump for president. Trump’s efforts to defuse the issue by saying he did not support a national abortion ban and that policy should be left to the states – may have worked in neutralizing the issue. It allowed voters to vote for ballot questions that protected access to abortion in their own states without worrying that a Trump presidency would produce a national abortion ban.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/11/16/2286748/-Abortion-and-the-2024-Election-A-Critical-Analysis?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=latest_community&pm_medium=web

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