(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Iran Ethnicities [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2024-11-15 Iran- An Ethnic Primer Iran has been in the news recently because of the ongoing war between Israel and the Iran backed Hamas and Hezbollah forces. Iran has attacked Israel with missiles and Israel has retaliated with missiles and airstrikes. Most Americans know very little about the country of Iran or its history. I will present a brief synopsis of Iran so others may understand why Iran is reluctant to engage in a full scale war with Israel. Iran is not a monolithic country. It is an empire. It is not an empire in the sense of the historical British, French, Spanish and Portuguese colonial empires. The colonies of those empires were in far off lands in Latin America, Africa, and Asia. The Iranian Empire is more analogous to the Russian and Soviet Union Empires. In The Russian Empire prior to World War 1 and in the Soviet Union Empire post World War 2, only half the population was of Russian ethnicity. The other half of the population were many non Russian ethnic groups who lived in their own regions. These regions adjoined the Russian regions of the empire. They spoke their own native languages and at times in their history were independent nations. The Iranian Empire is similar to the Russian and Soviet Union empires. Only half the population is Persian, of the total population of 90 million. The other half are numerous other ethnic groups who live in their own regions and speak their native languages. These ethnic groups also have varying degrees of hostility to the government of the Iranian Empire. Who are these other peoples ? I will begin with the Kurdish people. There are approximately 8 million Kurdish living in Iran. They mainly inhabit the western area of Iran bordering Iraq Kurdistan and Turkey. There is a strong independence movement within Iran Kurdistan as well as among the Iraqi Kurds that adjoin Iran Kurdistan. There was actually and Independent Kurdistan (Republic of Mahabad) in 1945 to 1946 that was formed after the Red Army conquered the Kurdish and Azeri regions of Iran in World War 2. This collapsed after the United Nations pressured the Soviet Union to withdraw from the Iranian regions it had conquered during the war. There has been a low grade insurgency in Iran Kurdistan for many years. In September 2022, an Iranian Kurdish woman, Masha Amini, was arrested, tortured, and killed by the Iranian morality police. This precipitated widespread protests in Kurdistan and throughout Iran which were brutally suppressed. Iran cannot depend on any support from the 8 million Kurds in a war against any foreign nation. The Balochs The Baloch people inhabit the southwestern region of Iran bordering Pakistan. They number approximately 2.5 million. There are another 6 million Baloch living in the adjoining Balochistan region of Pakistan. There has been a long standing low grade insurgency by Baloch militants who desire independence. There is a similar insurgency in Pakistan. In January 2024 Iran attacked Baloch insurgents in Pakistan with missiles. The Pakistan army retaliated with a missile strike against Iran Balochistan. The 2 countries did not wish a full scale war and the conflict was deescalated. However, Iran obviously cannot depend on the Baloch for any support in a war against a foreign nation. The Arabs There are approximately 3 million Arabs that live in Iran. They predominately live in the province of Khuzestan, which is in southwestern Iran bordering Iraq. Most are Shia Muslims. Despite their small numbers where they live is of strategic importance. Almost 90% of Iran’s oil and gas production is from this province. In 1980 Saddam Hussein ordered the invasion of Iran by the Iraq army. Most of the invasion forces were concentrated against Khuzestan Province. Saddam Hussein desired to annex the Arab population in Iran Khuzestan and also acquire its vast oil and gas reserves. He was unsuccessful in this 8 year war. This was partly due to the unwillingness of the Arab population to exchange the dictatorship of the Ayatollahs for that of Saddam Hussein. In 2024, Iraq now has a Shia Arab dominated government and there is a separatist moment among the Shia Arabs of Iran. The Turkmens The Turkmens number approximately 1 million and inhabit the northeast region of Iran bordering the country of Turkmenistan. Although they identify with their fellow ethnic Turkmens in Turkmenistan, there appears to be only minimal separatism aspirations. This may be related to the nature of the government in Turkmenistan. The Azeris The Azeris are the largest ethnic minority in Iran. They number approximately 18 million of the 90 million people in Iran. They mainly inhabit the northwest regions of Iran, south of the adjoining country of Azerbaijan and north of the Kurdish regions. The country of Azerbaijan has only 10 million Azeris and there are almost twice that many in Iran. The history of Azerbaijan is long and complicated. The 1828 Treaty of Turkmanchai divided the Azeris between Russia and Iran. After the Russian Revolution of 1917 the Azeris within the Russian Empire declared independence and its independence was recognized by the Allied nations in January 1920 at the Paris Peace conference. However, Lenin ordered the Red Army to invade and conquer Azerbaijan and it was annexed by the Soviet Union. With the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991, Azerbaijan was again an independent nation. In the Azeri region of Iran, the history was influenced by World War 2. The British government accused the Iranian government of pro German sympathies and in August 1941 the British Army and Red Army of the Soviet Union invaded Iran. The Red Army occupied the Azeri and Kurdish regions. When the war ended, Stalin refused to withdraw from Iran and attempted to annex the Azeri regions of Iran into Soviet Azerbaijan. The Iran army was unsuccessful against the battle hardened Red Army. Iran appealed to the United Nations and Stalin agreed to return the Iran occupied regions to Iran. This is the only instance in the post World War 2 era that the Soviet Union withdrew from any territory it conquered during the war. There are Azeri separatists in Iran but the movement is small, Needless to say, diplomatic relations between Iran and Azerbaijan are strained as some in the country of Azerbaijan desire to see a unified Azeri nation. The Talysh ( 500,000) The Gilaks (3 million) The Mazandaranis (4 million) These 3 ethnic groups inhabit the areas along the Caspian Sea. The Talysh live in along the western Caspian Sea bordering the country of Azerbaijan. The Gilaks inhabit the central region along the Caspian Sea. The Mazandaranis inhabit the eastern region along the Caspian Sea. They are Talysh living in the country of Azerbaijan. These ethnic groups appear to be well integrated into Iranian society with no separatist tendencies. The Lurs The Lurs live in western Iran adjoining Iraq, south of the Kurdish region and north of Khuzestan. The Lurs population is approximately 5 million. They appear to be well integrated into Iranian society. The Qashqai The Qashqai live in the region bordering the Lurs and number approximately 1 million. They also appear to be well integrated into Iranian society. How is this relevant to the current conflict in the Middle East? Iran arms and supports Hamas and Hezbollah in their wars with Israel. In April 2024 Israel attacked the Iranian consulate in Syria. Iran retaliated with drone and missile strikes against Israel and Israel then attacked Iran with missile strikes. This was repeated in October with an Iranian missile strike against Israel followed by an Israeli retaliation against Iran. Iran has threatened to retaliate against Israel again but has not. Why? Iran cannot take the risk of a full scale war with Israel and certainly not one where the United States becomes involved militarily on the side of Israel. Iran is a major oil exporter and their economy would decline dramatically if Israel took out Iranian oil production facilities. The government of Iran is aware that an economic or military crisis could threaten its very existence due to renewed ethnic separatist violence. They know the history of their previous neighboring empires- the Russian and Soviet Union multi ethnic empires. In 1917, after 3 years of war, which led to 3 million dead in the military, economic collapse, and famine, the Czar abdicated and the Russian Revolution occurred. Russia lost all its western regions- including Finland, the Baltic states, Poland, and Ukraine in the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk. In the subsequent Russian Civil War, the Caucasus and Asian nations were also temporarily lost. After the civil war, the Caucasus, and Asian republics as well as part of Ukraine, were reconquered by the Red Army. After World War 2 the western regions (except most of Finland), were conquered and reincorporated into the Soviet Empire. History was repeated in 1991. After an unpopular invasion of Afghanistan and continued economic decline, The Soviet Union unraveled and all the non Russian republics declared independence. The Iran government is aware of this history as well as their own separatist movements among several ethnic groups within Iran. The Iran government cannot simultaneously wage an external war against a foreign government as well as against some of its own people. [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/11/15/2286439/-Iran-Ethnicities?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=more_community&pm_medium=web Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/