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Were 2016, 2020, and 2024 all similar? [1]

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Date: 2024-11-09  

In 2016, Hillary loses narrowly. Only 80,000 votes and she could have won. In 2020, Biden wins narrowly. For example, he wins by 12,000 votes in Georgia. In 2024, Kamala loses but the margins pretty small.

if the experiment is to flip a coin 100 times, sometimes you get 49 and sometimes 51.

if we picked 100 people randomly in the us, then 49 vote one way, 49 the other way, and the 2 in the middle might be making up their minds. For many of us, our 49 friends are voting democratic, and have voted democratic previously.

and so it’s perhaps not completely true that the us has changed this year, or that the us has moved rightward. In some ways the changes are small and imperceptible. Maybe it’s more like sometimes the coins land a little more heads, and sometimes a little more tails.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/11/9/2284823/-Were-2016-2020-and-2024-all-similar?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=more_community&pm_medium=web

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