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If Iowa's now a swing state, the GOP appears to have lost all of its simplest victory paths [1]

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Date: 2024-11-03  

Team Blue’s “toss-up” advantage prior to the Iowa news

Two weeks ago, I posted a diary called ”If the race is a toss-up, Democrats likely have many more paths to victory.” I wrote:

While nothing is guaranteed, let’s assume the election results outside of the swing states will go as expected — e.g., Democrats will likely win Nebraska’s blue dot, the GOP will likely hold Florida, etc. That expected map gives Democrats an edge: more of the probably locked-up electoral votes are blue than red. Exactly 7 more: 226 to 219. In electoral math, that difference is quite substantial.

I noted this 7-vote advantage for Team Blue yielded many more and “simpler” paths to victory. For example, Democrats would have10 ways to win the election if they won just 3 swing states, while the GOP would have only 3 ways to do that (including 2 ties, which are currently expected to favor the GOP):

The 10 “simplest” paths to victory These are the ways to win with just 3 swing states (we assume the ticket loses all other swing states and wins all its expected non-swing state votes): AZ, GA, PA works for Dems, not for GOP

AZ, MI, PA works for Dems, not for GOP

AZ, NC, PA works for Dems, not for GOP

AZ, PA, WI works for Dems, not for GOP

GA, MI, PA works for Dems, likely works for GOP by House vote

GA, NC, PA works for both

GA, PA, WI works for Dems, not for GOP

MI, NC, PA works for Dems, likely works for GOP by House vote

MI, PA, WI works for Dems, not for GOP

NC, PA, WI works for Dems, not for GOP

Revised map has no 3-state victory paths for GOP

Assuming the “gold standard” Selzer poll just released for Iowa is accurate and the state is no longer safely red, we now have 8 swing states. That gives Team Blue a 13-vote advantage in the expected blue and red columns — 226 to 213. Here’s the revised list of the “simplest” paths to victory. Again, we are assuming the ticket loses all other swing states and wins all its expected non-swing state votes:

The 10 “simplest” paths to victory

AZ, GA, PA works for Dems, not for GOP

AZ, MI, PA works for Dems, not for GOP

AZ, NC, PA works for Dems, not for GOP

AZ, PA, WI works for Dems, not for GOP

GA, MI, PA works for Dems, not for GOP

GA, NC, PA works for Dems, not for GOP

GA, PA, WI works for Dems, not for GOP

MI, NC, PA works for Dems, not for GOP

MI, PA, WI works for Dems, not for GOP

NC, PA, WI works for Dems, not for GOP

I’ll repeat my previous diary’s conclusion (edited slightly to reflect this new map):

[END]
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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/story/2024/11/3/2281284/-If-Iowa-s-now-a-swing-state-the-GOP-appears-to-have-lost-all-of-its-simplest-victory-paths

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