(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Trump campaign cooks up wild new theory for why he's going to win [1] ['Daily Kos Staff'] Date: 2024-11-01 Former President Donald Trump's pollster, Tony Fabrizio, sent a campaign memo Thursday night declaring that "President Trump is on the verge" of victory. However, despite the fact that he is Trump's pollster and ostensibly conducting his own polling, he provided no internal numbers to back up his assertion. Instead, he relied on RealClearPolitics polling averages, a right-wing site whose averages are skewed toward Republicans due to the inclusion of surveys from Republican junk pollsters. "As the table clearly illustrates, President Trump’s position nationally and in every single Battleground State is SIGNIFICANTLY better today than it was 4 years ago," Fabrizio wrote in the memo, referring to the RealClearPolitics averages. "In fact, President Trump holds the lead in 5 of the 7 Battleground States that account for over 270 Electoral Votes." RealClearPolitics’ averages far underestimated Democrats in 2022. They showed that Republicans were poised to win a significant majority in the Senate, which did not happen. Instead, Democrats actually gained one seat, capturing an outright majority. To be sure, polling averages do show the race this year to be extremely close. The New York Times’ averages have Trump leading by less than one point in Pennsylvania, which would tip the Electoral College to him. Experts say the election is currently a coin flip, and a polling error in either direction could swing the race to Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris. But if Fabrizio really had the goods showing Trump headed for victory, you’d think he would release them. Earlier in October, Fabrizio sent another memo that included internal numbers showing Trump ahead. In another memo in September, after Trump’s disastrous debate with Harris, Fabrizio showed internal polling with Trump ahead. The new memo could be an effort to stroke Trump’s fragile ego in the final days of the contest. There's been multiple reports in the past that Trump's aides bring him good news to stroke his ego. They often print out favorable headlines for him to read, and he watches Fox News all day to hear the hosts heap praise upon him. That's what this memo could be doing. The Washington Post even reported in 2022 that Trump has an aide who follows him around with a printer to print out “uplifting news articles, online posts or other materials,” while other aides call Trump’s allies to get them to “dial the former president to boost his spirits with positive affirmations.” However, the chest-thumping by Trump’s campaign and other Trump allies could also be more sinister. The overconfidence could make Trump’s most fervent supporters believe victory is inevitable. And if Harris wins and overperforms polling averages, it could lead those supporters to believe the election was rigged and make them cause the same kind of chaos we witnessed after the 2020 election. Trump supporters—who believe the polls show Trump winning, and betting markets showing a high probability of a Trump victory—could riot again like they did on Jan. 6, 2021. In fact, Trump supporters are already planning another Jan. 6. “Their plans include challenging results in court, pressuring lawmakers to block election certification, and encouraging protests—culminating on January 6, 2025, the day Congress will once again certify the results,” CNN reported on Thursday. Ultimately, no one knows what’s going to happen Tuesday night when results start coming in. But if Trump’s pollsters really believed he was on the “verge,” they’d show everyone the proof. Looking to volunteer to help get out the vote? Click here to view multiple ways you can help reach voters—textbanking, phonebanking, letters, postcards, parties, canvassing. We’ve got you covered! [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/11/1/2281575/-Trump-campaign-cooks-up-wild-new-theory-for-why-he-s-going-to-win?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_1&pm_medium=web Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/