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Kamala Landslide Incoming [1]

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Date: 2024-11-01  

While it’s been a scary couple of weeks, with some improvement for Trump in the polls before Kamala’s most recent surge, it’s important to remember that the pollsters vastly overstated Republican support in 2022 when a “red wave” was supposed to gain Republicans the Senate and the House. That wave never materialized.

Now we have same pollsters saying Republicans and Democrats are in a stalemate for the White House, with Republicans supposedly favored to win the Senate. But the evidence is all around us: We are going to see a Democratic White House, Senate and House of Representatives elected into office on November 5.

It will be a shock to the nation. But if you look at who has momentum in the polls this Nov. 1, it shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise.

The latest Marist poll has Trump and Harris tied in Georgia. CNN has Harris ahead in North Carolina. Marist has Harris up two points in Pennsylvania, three points in Michigan, two in Wisconsin, and CNN has her up one in Arizona.

Even more devastating to Republicans — the latest Hill/Emerson poll has Ted Cruz up by only one point against Colin Allred in Texas. Imagine a Republican Senate loss in Texas. When you factor in the obvious fact that pollsters are overstating Republican support, due to their underestimations in ‘16 and ‘20, we can anticipate a replay of ‘22.

Imagine a Harris win and a Ted Cruz defeat in Texas. It’s more than possible. Given recent polling history, it’s probable.

In fact, pollsters are proven to have already overestimated Trump’s support this year in the form of the Republican primaries. I don’t agree with the assessment that this polling over-performance isn’t already being duplicated in the general election. These are the same public pollsters making the same mistakes.

There will be no Republican wave anywhere on Tuesday. Just the opposite in fact.

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