(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: How To Win With Less [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2024-11-01 Ron Brownstein/The Atlantic: The Democratic Theory of Winning With Less This election will be decided not by another big popular vote but by the slenderest of margins in the Rust Belt battlegrounds. That history has weighed heavily on Democrats as a procession of recent polls has shown Trump shrinking or even erasing Harris’s national lead. But the pattern of differences among white, Black, and Latino voters found in most of those national surveys show how Harris could still potentially capture the 270 Electoral College votes needed for victory—even if she wins the nationwide popular vote by much less than Biden did in 2020, and possibly by only about the same margin that Clinton got in 2016. The principal reason is that these recent polls show Trump making most of his gains in national support by performing better among Black and, especially, Latino voters than he did in either of those previous elections. Even the most favorable surveys for Trump consistently find Harris polling very close to Biden’s level of support in 2020 among white voters, which had improved over Clinton’s performance with that group by several points. In other words, Harris will likely rely a bit more on white voters than her party’s past two nominees did. Except the hate rally last weekend scrambled everything. And maybe the margin won’t be razor thin. Meanwhile… a firing squad? Unacceptable rhetoric. Let cable news play this on infinite loop: x Four Days until Election Day and Donald Trump if fantasizing about killing those who oppose him pic.twitter.com/qCqVQgj1Ix — James Singer (@Jemsinger) November 1, 2024 x This is how dictators destroy free nations. They threaten those who speak against them with death. We cannot entrust our country and our freedom to a petty, vindictive, cruel, unstable man who wants to be a tyrant. #Womenwillnotbesilenced #VoteKamala https://t.co/URH5s929Sa — Liz Cheney (@Liz_Cheney) November 1, 2024 David Rothkopf/Daily Beast: Forget the Polls Showing a Dead Heat. Kamala Harris Will Win Harris is the future. Trump is the past. And on Election Day, American voters will embrace that change. She is the future. He is the past. And on Election Day, American voters will embrace that change. This will all be made possible because, when the final votes are counted in next week’s election, Harris will have outperformed the vast majority of polls and won by a more substantial majority than most commentators expected. Trump will howl and contest the vote. But in the end his conspiracy theories and unfounded legal challenges and intrigues will again be unsuccessful as they were in 2020 and 2021. The reasons that the pollsters and pundits—who have a pretty lousy record in recent years—will be proven to be wrong again are manifold. Joe Cirincione/Strategy and History: Why I Think Kamala Harris Will Win All the arrows are pointing in her direction So, I don’t know if Kamala Harris will win. But I think she will. I base that on an analysis of the fundamentals in this elections. Although polls show a close race, almost all the fundamentals are developing in favor of Harris. Harris is running a superb campaign. There is very little finger-pointing or second-guessing of Harris. Observers are nearly unanimous that she is doing exactly what they think she needs to be doing to win. In contrast, Trump is running a bizarre campaign, including delivering at his fascist Madison Square Garden rally what has got to be the greatest self-sabotage of a presidential campaign since Gerald Ford insisted that Poland was not dominated by the Soviet Union. Pennsylvania alone has 400,000 Puerto Rican voters - and they are furious. x Hope he gets paid before the election https://t.co/oUNQrgFYoL — Greg Dworkin (@DemFromCT) October 31, 2024 His memo relies on RCP averages, not his own polling. Tells you what you need to know. New York Times: Harris Aides Quietly Grow More Bullish on Defeating Trump While still cautious, advisers and allies believe that casting Donald Trump as a fascist is working, and that their expansive ground game and appeals on abortion rights may carry the day. Officials within the Harris campaign and people with whom they have shared candid assessments believe she remains in a solid position in the Northern “blue wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, saying internal polling shows her slightly ahead in all three — though by as little as half a percentage point. They think she remains competitive across the four Sun Belt battleground states. Arizona and North Carolina appear to be the toughest swing states for Ms. Harris, these Democrats said, and they feel better about Georgia and Nevada. x What are we even talking about here?? When I think about my kids and my family and how they will grow up, the choice is clear to me. VOTE KAMALA HARRIS!!! pic.twitter.com/tYYlTmQS6e — LeBron James (@KingJames) October 31, 2024 Gallup: More Than Half of U.S. Votes Likely Cast Before Election Day Voter enthusiasm is high, with Democrats more enthusiastic than Republicans Considering both when and how Americans plan to vote, the largest segment of voters, 39%, plan to vote in person on Election Day. The next largest groups are early voters who plan to vote in person (28%) or by mail or absentee ballot (25%). Two percent of U.S. registered voters will vote by absentee ballot on Election Day, and the remainder either are unsure when or how they will vote or don’t plan to vote at all. Forty-six percent of Republicans and Republican leaners plan to vote in person on Election Day, compared with 33% of Democrats and Democratic leaners. Republican versus Democratic early voters diverge in how they will vote. Republicans are about twice as likely to vote early in person (31%) as by mail or absentee ballot (15%), while more Democratic voters will vote early by mail (34%) than vote in person before Election Day (27%). … Seventy percent of registered voters say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting, similar to the 71% measured in August but higher than the 56% in March. The increase this summer was largely a result of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents expressing heightened enthusiasm after Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket, surging from 57% to 79% “more enthusiastic.” Now, Democrats maintain elevated election enthusiasm, at 77%, compared with 67% among Republicans. x Harris campaign up with new TV ad this morning - first airing in North Carolina - referencing comedian Tony Hinchcliffe at Trump's MSG rally calling Puerto Rico "a floating island of garbage": "This November 5th, Trump will understand that some people's trash is others' treasure" pic.twitter.com/PQ2BdwF89j — David Wright (@DavidWright_7) October 31, 2024 Tucson Sentinel: Latter-day Saints in Az break with Trump on immigration, which could help Harris “I think immigration is actually a huge factor there. Immigration issues hit a little differently for Latter-day Saint voters,” said Rob Taber, the national director for Latter-day Saints for Harris-Walz. Taber remembers seeing staunchly Republican families bringing their children in strollers to protest Trump’s 2017 travel ban – which restricted people from predominantly Muslim countries from coming to the United States – “because they felt that strongly about it.” LDS voters differ from other religious groups in their progressive stance on immigration. It’s an outlook informed by growing up in the church where young people are sent as missionaries abroad, an experience that increases tolerance for undocumented immigrants, according to a 2020 academic study. x I voted for Kamala Harris. To some fellow believers, that will be an affront. But the Church has widely been responsible for empowering a dangerous man, and I feel a responsibility to refute that. In our system of government, voting against him is a prime way to do that. 1/13 — Jennifer Erin Valent (@JenniferEValent) October 30, 2024 Go where the voters are with mlive: University of Michigan grad hopes ads on porn sites will deter Trump voters The 10-second advertisement reads: “Trump’s Project 2025 will ban porn. Enjoy while you can.” Nowinski hopes this reaches a certain type of Trump voter willing to break off over certain policies. Now that’s what you call a Big Tent, amirite? I’m here Mon, Wed, Fri and Sat. x New Marist polls: PENNSYLVANIA Harris 50 Trump 48 MICHIGAN Harris 51 Trump 48 WISCONSIN Harris 50 Trump 48 All three have Harris beating Trump among independents and doing well for a Dem among noncollege whites. Good signs all aroundhttps://t.co/RTFa7BhNSk — Greg Sargent (@GregTSargent) November 1, 2024 x With RVs, the POTUS topline is actually 51-47 Harris. Similar movement to what Fox and a few others have found. For vote methods, Harris wins those already voted (VBM) 63-35 while Trump, if nothing changes, wins ED 54-44. Generic ballot is D+1 here (50-49). — Joshua Smithley (@blockedfreq) November 1, 2024 Cliff Schecter on the porn angle (go where the voters are, folks): [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/11/1/2281405/-Abbreviated-Pundit-Roundup-How-To-Win-With-Less?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/