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Quick Example Of Just How Bad Some Garbage Polls Are [1]

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Date: 2024-10-31  

We’ve all heard about the garbage red pollsters flooding the zone in this final stretch to skew the averages and create the narrative that Trump is winning — and if he loses that means cheating is the only reason why. I decided to have a quick look at one such poll’s crosstabs to see just how screwy they could be. I was not disappointed.

Five Thirty Eight’s PA average has flipped back into Trump’s favor, and that is partly driven by a Trump +6 poll from Echelon Insights. However, digging into their data we find this:

Out of 52 Black voters, exactly zero identify as being GOP, with 11 being Indies. Okay so far.

And yet, out of those 52 Black voters, 12 of them are supposedly voting for Trump. That’s 23%!

How do they get from 0% GOP to 23% backing Trump? That’s 100% of Black Independents plus a Black Dem, or some similar mixture.

Unless there is some ludicrous level of misogyny going on (only 19 Blacks are male so either 63% of them are voting Trump, or some of the Black women are), that’s really stretching belief.

Oh, and they have Trump winning all Women by a few votes, and winning Hispanics 55%-45%.

Either we are terribly, terribly wrong about the state of reality, or this is a clear example of the level of horseshit that is being fed to the punditry.

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