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On polls and more [1]

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Date: 2024-10-30  

not much new data - there are a variety of polls coming out. There may be a tendency towards what is called "herding" - nudging results to be closer to averages, which is a form of hedging one's bets. Not clear. There is a proliferation of so called red wave polls which do distort the averages in favor of Trump.

Going to pass on two things. One is a terrific explanation by a Josh Clinton from Vanderbilt U, a poli sci professor & co-director of their polling institute, which explains some of the issues faced by pollsters. You can read the entire piece here:

Let me offer just a bit. First to let you see what he views as the key issues for any pollster:

he 4 key questions for pollsters After poll data are collected, pollsters must assess whether they need to adjust or “weight” the data to address the very real possibility that the people who took the poll differ from those who did not. This involves answering four questions: 1. Do respondents match the electorate demographically in terms of sex, age, education, race, etc.? (This was a problem in 2016.) 2. Do respondents match the electorate politically after the sample is adjusted by demographic factors? (This was the problem in 2020.) 3. Which respondents will vote? 4. Should the pollster trust the data?" Then, he gives examples of how things can change depending upon how you answer these questions, where the results can be margins for Harris ranging from 9% down to 1%.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/30/2280922/-On-polls-and-more?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

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