(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . GNR for Wednesday October 30 2024 [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2024-10-30 All month my anxiety level has been rising. I find myself checking the latest forecasts several times a day. But now things look good for next week. My pepper plants will make through the weekend. Last year I saw some YouTube videos about overwintering peppers. I chopped the growth down to a couple of nodes, pulled them out of the ground, and put them in pots in the basement with a grow light. The shock put them into dormancy for most of the winter. When I replanted them in the spring they had explosive growth and I had the biggest and most productive plants I had ever seen. One poblano is over 5’ tall. So I am going to do the same thing this year, but I wanted to put it off as long as possible so they would be going dormant on their own. There have been a few near freezes this month. I covered them with plastic and they weren’t damaged. But it is time to stop taking chances and bring them in. Great Fundraising and Spending News The Downballot pulled out of DK earlier this year but they are still busy analyzing elections. They offer a free newsletter, which is where I picked this up. Morning Digest: Democrats keep obliterating the GOP in fundraising and spending In new FEC reports covering the first 16 days of October compiled by The Downballot, Democrats picked up right where they left off at the end of the third quarter. Collectively, their candidates for the Senate and House raised another $103 million, compared to $58 million for their GOP opponents, a split of 64% to 34%. Democrats also spent far more, $197 million to $128 million… The gap is even vaster, though, because none of this includes spending by third-party outfits, where Democrats are also swamping Republicans. That's vividly illustrated in the latest update to The Downballot's database tracking spending by the four largest groups involved in House races, where one organization now towers above the rest. Great Early Voting News Polls have become much less accurate the last few years. We are going through a major realignment of the two political parties. The normally reliable assumptions that people are going to vote based on their party registration and turnout is going to be similar to previous years aren’t working. What does still work is exit polls. The information of who has voted is publicly available. Asking a representative sample of them how they voted and then extrapolating to the entire population avoids those two problems. The exit polls this year are showing a blue wave. Early voting: 47% Dem, 44% Rep, 9% Ind is voting 61%-35% Harris-Trump Several polls out lately have asked people if they’ve already voted, and if they have, how they have voted. Here are the polls and the Harris-Trump percentages those early voters have said they voted. ABC/Ipsos: Harris 62-33 CNN: Harris 61-36 NYT/Siena: Harris 58-40 HarrisX poll: Harris 61-32 USAToday/Suffolk: Harris 63-34 At least a quarter of those Republicans are voting for Harris, even assuming all of the Democrats and others are also. The historical trend has been that about a third of the votes come during early voting and we are about there this year (2020 was much higher because of COVID). Probably those margins will drop a bit with the Election Day votes but right now Harris would be looking at close to a 90% electoral college blowout with Utah being the swingiest state. CNN: Harris leads 53%-44% among Arizonans who have already voted But more Republicans have voted than Democrats! Because there is a sizable number of independent and third party voters it is (just barely) possible that all of the Republicans are voting for donold, but realistically it means he is losing an enormous chunk of them. Over half have already voted. There is no way on earth he is going to reverse that lead. The Lincoln Project, Liz Cheney, and all the other prominent Republicans endorsing Harris are having a massive impact (as are Harris’ masterful campaign and the other side’s fascist shit-show). Optimism Wins For Presidential Candidates, Optimism Appears a Winner (1988) Optimists Rule! (2000) Kamala Harris loves interacting with ordinary people doing ordinary things. Here is a short (which I can’t embed) from an interview with Shannon Sharpe where she talks about her favorite music. Tim Walz is able to extract the maximum amount of fun out of any situation. Here he is joining AOC on her gaming channel, making a complete fool of himself, and loving every minute of it. We are going to win. Our candidates are nice people, they enjoy the same things as ordinary people, and voters are figuring that out. That is very good news because we are going to have a Harris and Walz administration for the next four years. Something Everyone Can Do Last week I posted the following on my Facebook page. I do this before every election. Many people have told me they look forward to my recommendations, especially if there are non-partisan races or issues on the ballot. Tomorrow early voting begins. Here is how I am going to vote. First, I am going to vote for all the Democrats*. That isn't because I have any allegiance to the Democratic Party. My parents were staunch Republicans (until W turned their stomachs). But the Republican Party has been taken over by bigots, scam artists, and traitors. Until the decent folks take back their party I will not vote for any of them. Second, I am voting NO on Amendment 1. The same religious fanatics who want to stick their noses into decisions that should be between a woman and her doctor also want to stick their noses into decisions between me and my doctor. They need to mind their own damn business. I am in my 70s. Sometime in the next few decades I am going to be dead. That doesn't bother me; it happens to everyone. The path getting there is concerning, though. My mother died peacefully in her sleep in her 90s- I hope that happens to me. But I have known other people who endured months of excruciating pain before kicking the bucket. I want to leave open the possibility that I can skip that. Wesley Holden *If I lived in the southern part of the state I would vote for, the independent running for Congress. Both the Republican and Democratic candidates are batshit crazy extremists. Wes is the sensible guy in the middle. Some Personal Notes I got a call Monday from the CDC National Immunization Survey. They gauge the public’s attitudes toward vaccines. Since I was the biological safety officer for WVU and was on the microbiology faculty I don’t think I am representative of the typical person. Vaccines are generally a good thing and you should get every one that your health care provider suggests. I have spent the last week putting up and finishing drywall in our garage. This is something I have had on my to-do list for years and has been a great distraction. I canvassed for one of our local legislative candidates last Saturday and plan to do so next weekend. Canvassing and phone calling at this stage is uniformly positive. Competent campaigns are only contacting voters they know are supporters to make sure they get out to vote. The most common response is something like “Hell yes I am voting for her! We need to beat all of those *$^$&s. And thank you for doing this.” [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/30/2280719/-GNR-for-Wednesday-October-30-2024?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/