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Fun with Numbers - aka Testing Two Theories [1]

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Date: 2024-10-30  

Preface — I don’t necessarily agree with the two theories I’m testing, but I’ve heard both frequently.

Florida early voting as of yesterday (see image). Throwing out “other parties” and combining mail-in ballots and in-person early voting:

Dems = 1,927,380

Reps = 2,609,470

Unaffiliated = 1,137,309

Theory #1 — there’s a “silent” Rep vote exodus. I’m frequently hearing 10%. For the purpose of this exercise, let’s assume the Rep vs Dem defection delta is 10%.

Theory #2 — Indies are 60/40 Dem this cycle.

Apply these two theories to the above numbers:

Dems = 2,870,712

Reps = 2,803,447

Things that make you go “hmmmmmmm…...”

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